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Prices as of 4 pm ET, 11/22/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE
Volumes this week are close to yearly lows
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Expect more of the same for today
Thursday U.S. Thanksgiving
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U.S. stock exchange closed
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Fixed income markets closed
Friday
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U.S. stock exchange closed at 1 p.m.
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Fixed income markets closed at 2 p.m.
2 p.m. Fed minutes from November 2nd meeting
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Next Fed meeting December 14
VIX
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Volumes and Volatility are Low
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VIX at its lowest level since August
Crude $78
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Lower despite API reporting a crude draw
Europe diplomats meet today
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with the goal of approving Russian crude oil price cap and price mechanism
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EU discussing capping /Russian oil at $65-70 per bbl, close to the $78 it is trading today
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Dual goal of:
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Keep Russian oil flowing as much as possible
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Limit Russian revenues
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will probably not be met.
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Russians can say “we’re selling at market prices” (to China, India, etc) thus keeping Russian production at current levels
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Russian will probably not say “we’re selling at the cap”, so Russian revenues will not be limited.
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Ultimately, the market price will determine what Russia does
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If oil prices fall below the cap, will Russia reiterate that it won’t supply countries that participate in the cap?
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Apple AAPL
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Apple workers at its main China plant clashed with security staff
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after being locked up for almost a month under Covid restriction
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Best Buy BBY said high-end iPhones will be in short supply during the holiday season
Earnings
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VMware VMW
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Autodesk ADSK
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HP HPQ will cut 10% of its workforce
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Nordstrom JWN
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Deere DE +3%, beat and guide raised,
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Credit Suisse CS $88 billion in outflows, expects Q4 pre-tax loss of $1.6B
CRYPTO UPDATE
Digital Currency Group
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Says no imminent thread
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Owes Genesis (which it owns) $575 million
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Due May 2023
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Also owes Genesis $1.1 billion on promissory note due June 2032
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“Collectively we will come out of it stronger”
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Genesis hired investment bank Moelis & Company to explore options including bankruptcy
Cathie Wood: still very bullish
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Sticking to $1 million price target by 2030
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Bitcoin BTC/USD will come out of crisis smelling like a “rose”
SBF apology letter to FTX staff
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“I didn’t mean for any of this to happen, and I would give anything to be able to go back and do things over again”
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“I did not realize the full extent of the margin position, nor did I realize the magnitude of the risk posed by a hyper-correlated crash”
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