Mosaic Lowers 2025 Phosphate Output Guidance, Stock Dips On Revised Outlook

The Mosaic Company MOS shares slipped 5.3% at last check Friday during the pre-market trading session.

The company revised its second-quarter and full-year 2025 outlook, adjusting phosphate guidance downward while raising price expectations.

The company now sees Q2 diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices at $650–$670 per tonne, up from the previous $635–$655 range due to solid demand and limited supply. However, phosphate sales volumes were lowered to 1.5–1.6 million tonnes from the earlier 1.7–1.9 million estimate.

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Full-year phosphate production guidance was also reduced to 7.0–7.3 million tonnes, compared to the prior 7.2–7.6 million range.

Potash forecasts remain unchanged. Mosaic continues to expect Q2 sales of 2.3–2.5 million tonnes and full-year output of 9.0–9.4 million tonnes. Mine-gate MOP pricing also holds steady at $230–$250 per tonne.

Operationally, the Bartow facility is running at target levels and should exceed 500,000 tonnes in Q2. New Wales is ramping up, with output set to rise over 20% from Q1. The commissioning of delayed gypsum handling systems is expected to be completed by early July, unlocking higher capacity.

At Riverview and Louisiana, extended maintenance and unplanned repairs led to temporary slowdowns. Both are expected to return to target run rates in Q3—1.6 million and 1.4 million tonnes annually, respectively.

Mosaic remains confident that its U.S. phosphate operations will reach an 8 million tonne annualized run rate in the second half of the year.

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Mosaic Fertilizantes will benefit from improved pricing, seasonal margins, operational gains, and FX tailwinds. The full-year sales volume target of 10.0–10.8 million tonnes remains intact.

Core financial projections—capital expenditures ($1.2–$1.3 billion), depreciation and amortization ($1.1–$1.2 billion), SG&A ($470–$500 million), and net interest expense ($180–$200 million)—were unchanged. Tax rates are still expected in the high-20s (effective) and mid-to-high 20s (cash).

CEO Bruce Bodine expects around 15% growth in sales volume for the year and is well-positioned to navigate global trade and geopolitical challenges.

Related ETFs: VanEck Agribusiness ETF MOO, Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF SOIL.

Price Action: MOS shares are trading lower by 7.28% at $33.75 premarket at the last check Friday.

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