Market Overview

Key Technical Levels In The S&P, Bond, And Bitcoin Futures


David Wienke is the editor of Keystone Charts. More than 30 years of experience providing technical analysis and execution services to institutional clients is now provided in a daily newsletter, The Daily Game Plan. Coverage includes equities, rates, currencies, and commodities. Dave is also an introducing broker with Capital Trading Group, LLLP (CTG); a Chicago based investment firm specializing in execution and account management for CTAs and individual investors. Charts are created using CQG, a top of the line trading and charting service. For a free trial of the Daily Game Plan newsletter email me at or go to Capital Trading Group to subscribe

Large caps have been underperforming in March as rotational plays take over from the safety of large caps. This and the risk of a trade war with China is having a negative impact on large caps like Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) which fell below its 50-day moving average Wednesday for the first time in almost a year. The chart below is E-Mini S&P 500 futures relative to Dow Industrials futures, or ESM8/YMM8. Look for some unwind of the current rotation after ES vs YM hit the pivotal 200-day moving average in the pair yesterday. 

We have key levels in ESM8 at 2762.50, 2783.50, and 2808 (EPM8 is the symbol for the S&P 500 futures in the CQG platform). 


Here are two key charts in the fixed income market. The first is the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note futures, TYM8, which has a March high at 120-23 as initial resistance. More importantly, the 50-day moving average at the 120-131 area is also the VWAP of the year in the futures. The 50-day moving average in the 10-year yield is 2.75 percent. 


The 30-year U.S. Treasury Note futures, USM8, is showing a positive short-term trend above 144-21 and has 145-17 as next resistance. The 200-week moving average at 146-26* is major resistance above just in case we get there.


The Euro-Bund is helping lift US treasuries after it held a .786 potential reversal support level for a second time on February 8. The Bund now has its 200-day moving average which has been a pretty good short term pivotal point as key resistance, and any further equity weakness would likely see momentum above the 200-day to test the 159.72 level.

Bund future

The Bitcoin Real-Time Index held below the 50-day moving average (blue line) and cloud resistance area that we were using as key resistance after the +99 percent rally off the early February low.  It will need to hold above its 200-day moving average (7312) at least on a closing basis or risk a technical breakdown. 

Bitcoin Real Time Index

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Posted-In: Bonds Eurozone Futures Technicals Commodities Forex Markets Trading Ideas


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