Good Morning Everyone!
Somebody forgot to tell consumers we're headed into a recession.
Prices as of 4 pm ET, 11/25/22; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE
Complicating China’s path to reopening
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Protests erupted against China’s Covid-Zero strategy
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Wide spread: Beijing, Shanghai and over 100 Universities
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Largest threat to Chinese power since Tiananmen crisis 30 years ago
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China ETF
President Xi Jinping has recently secured a 3rd term
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And XI appointed Li Qiang (oversaw Shanghai lockdown) to the party’s #2 spot
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How will Xi react?
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Concern is that China will either suffer from continued lockdown measures
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Or…
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A health crisis if the government is forced to back-off from Zero-Covid
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If China is to reopen, we need to see a pivot from lockdowns to increased vaccination rates
10yr
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4.2% to 3.6%
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Falling bond yields may be signaling the expected slow-down in 2023
Wednesday Jay Powell commentary
Friday November U.S. jobs data
December 14 FOMC meeting
It’s interesting that the US dollar is weaker today in a “risk-off” tape
Crude 74 -2%
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Year to date, WTI crude is down 1%
Apple AAPL -2%
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Concerns on iPhone Pro-14 unit shortfalls due to Chinese protests
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Plant in Zhengzhou likely result in a 6 million iPhone Pro shortfall this year
Thanksgiving Day online spending (Black Friday)
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Adobe ADBE reports online spending hit a record of $5.3 billion
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Up 2.9% year over year
Earnings None
CRYPTO UPDATE
Binance officially presents proof of reserves system
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Two weeks ago pledged to develop system
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Merkle-based system to verify holdings
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Bitcoin currently only token can use system
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Coins to be added over coming weeks
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SBF to speak Wednesday at New York Times event
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Dealbook summit with Andrew Sorkin
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Other speakers include Larry Fink (BlackRock), Eric Adams (NY mayor), Mike Pence (former vice president), President Zelensky (Ukraine), Mark Zuckerberg, Reed Hastings (Netflix)
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