A new projection for the global box office in 2024 could spell bad news for movie theater operators. The prediction came after the Hollywood Strike led to work stoppages and could impact the number of movies released next year.
What Happened: The 2023 movie year was full of many positives with the releases of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" breaking box office records and the animated video game adaptation of Super Mario Brothers becoming one of the highest-grossing animated films ever.
On the flip side, the Hollywood Strike led to some potential blockbuster movies not getting the same marketing and promotional coverage they would have.
Walt Disney Co DIS was among the companies that struggled at the box office with no movies hitting the $1 billion milestone worldwide for the first time in several years, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Concert films from Taylor Swift and Beyonce provided hope for the box office in the fourth quarter and may provide a boost to the financial results of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc AMC.
A new outlook could put a damper on the 2024 movie season before it begins. The 2024 global box office is expected to hit $31.5 billion, according to data from Gower Street Analytics.
The box office total would be down 5% from 2023 and make 2024 the first year post-pandemic to see a decrease in the annual forecast, according to Deadline. The estimate would see 2024 have box office that is down around 20% from the average of 2017, 2018 and 2019, which were the three years before the pandemic.
Estimates from Gower call for the North American box office to hit $8 billion in 2024 and be down 11% year-over-year. This total would be down around 30% from the 2017, 2018 and 2019 three-year averages.
One market that could perform strongly in 2024 is China, with an estimate of $7.9 billion, which would be up 5% year-over-year.
The estimates come with a delay in movies for 2024 due to the Hollywood strike.
"Given that we lost 50% of production time in 2023, the anticipated 5% year-on-year decrease in 2023 is not indicative of a declining interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability," Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos said.
Looking further out into 2025, Mitsinikos said the following new year could be a "very good year at the global box office."
Why It's Important: The estimates from the movie theater analyst could spell trouble for AMC and Cinemark Holdings Inc CNK, two of the largest theater chains in North America.
Several movie companies such as Disney have already announced they are pushing movies originally planned for 2024 release into 2025 due to the ongoing impact of the strikes.
Disney is also bringing movies it previously released as streaming-only titles on Disney+ to the big screen for the first time, which could show just how short the new content for movie theater chains could be.
With limited blockbusters and new movie releases, theater chains may have to get creative with more music, sports and events content being shown on the big screen.
Photo: Shutterstock
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