3 Commodities You Should Watch, According to Mike Seery

In trading commodities, Mike Seery likes to keep it simple. His preference is to enter on a trade on a four-week low or a four-week high. He's also a trend-follower.

“If something has hit the lowest price in the last 20 trading days, I am going to short it,” he said. “If something has hit a 20-day high, I will be buying that and placing my stock below the 10-day low as my risk parameter.”

The Seery Futures president was recently a guest on Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep show to talk about meat, crude and metals.

Seery spoke to Benzinga from the suburbs of Chicago, where there are a lot of corn and soybean crops. He said nice rain and mild temperatures have been pushing prices lower. Trading in the grains market is a combination of both technicals and fundamentals, he said.

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1. After Pork Bellies End, Hog Market Holds On

Although the Chicago Mercantile Exchange no longer trades pork bellies, Seery said that the hog market has been a “terrific” trade. “We caught that earlier this year, and the hogs went to all-time highs, just like the cattle market,” he said. “So, hogs are still a very viable commodity, and you definitely can trade those.”

Two things have driven pork prices so high this year. The first was a virus that resulted in the slaughter of numerous young pigs, Seery said, which left a significantly decreased supply. In addition, the spread between pork and cattle was very wide. If steak is selling for $14 a pound and pork was only $2 a pound, more demand will start coming in for pork, Seery said.

“The meat complex, by far, has been the biggest bull market in 2014,” he said.

2. Crude Oil

There's a battle within the crude market between West Texas Intermediate and Brent, Seery said. While WTI is lighter and cleaner, Seery explained, while the Brent is crude from the Middle East. “So, problems over in Iraq can send the Brent up because you have supply issues,” he said.

Seery said the U.S. is starting to become a huge exporter because there is plenty of gas and oil around. That's also why he doesn't think that the price will go up. He said we're in a deflationary period, and he looks for lower crude oil prices.

In terms of crude, the problem with geopolitical nonsense is that it fades, Seery said. “Last August, we had the Syrian thing. Crude went up to 112. The world was coming to an end,” he said. “Literally the next day, you never heard about Syria again, and that's kind of what's happening in Iraq. You don't even hear about it anymore.”

3. Silver & Gold

The problem with gold is that everyone wants stocks, Seery said.

The money flow is coming out of gold and into stocks, and he doesn't see that stopping. Seery also anticipates another double-digit year in the stock market.

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“I would be negative to gold at this point,” he said. However, silver prices are definitely on Seery's radar. Silver prices are cheap compared to the rest of the commodity market. Unlike gold, he said, silver actually has a usage in electronics.

“If you are a longer-term investor, and you have some deep pockets, on any significant dip in silver, it should be bought,” Seery said.

Keep It Simple

Seery has been trading for more than 20 years. He said his system was developed from taking bits and pieces of other ones he's encountered over the years. He uses stops, and he'll place his stop if he's short at the 10-day high. Seery doesn't have any targets, however, and thinks it's a foolish game to put a target on.

“Sometimes I throw a number out there, but it's too difficult to do,” he said. “All I do is keep moving my stop up to the 10-day low or the 10-day high, and eventually I get stopped out, but I am going to try to get as much of that trend as I can get.”

Check out the full interview here: