Trading a US Military Withdrawal

Following the attacks of September 11th, the U.S. began a staggeringly large military campaign, the total cost of which could total nearly a third of the GDP of the United States.

cites a study by Brown University, alleging that—all things considered—the total cost of the war-on-terror could fall somewhere between $3.7 and $4.4 trillion dollars. Perhaps most troubling:

reports that the military spends over $20 billion on air conditioning alone—more than the budget of NASA. With a Federal Government moving to get its finances in order in lieu of the upcoming debt ceiling spending limit, the U.S. might have no choice but to remove its military forces from the Middle East. The dialing down of such an enormous military presence could create shock waves across the global markets. The price of everything from oil to the U.S. dollar to equities could be affected. Traders anticipating a shift in U.S. military policy might consider altering their positions based on expectations.

Traders who believe that the U.S. will withdraw from the Middle East might want to consider the following trades:

Traders who believe that extensive military activity will persist in the region may consider taking positions in the following: