Trump Cheers The Market's Bull Run, But How Optimistic Are We?
On Thursday morning, President Trump took to Twitter to give himself a pat on the back for the stock market’s post-election bull run.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) is now up 9.5 percent since Election Day and is trading at new all-time highs.
The bull market has certainly picked up steam since Trump was elected, but he can’t take credit for the market rally over the previous seven years. From March 9, 2009 to November 8, 2016, the SPY gained an impressive 214.4 percent.
According to Trump’s tweet, market confidence about his policies is extremely high.
Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism - even before tax plan rollout!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 16, 2017
Related Link: How Odds Of Trump's Impeachment Have Changed
Unfortunately, extremely high market confidence is one of the most common signals of a market top.
Luckily, not all investors are as confident as Trump. According to Ycharts, bullish market sentiment now stands at 35.8 percent, just shy of its long-term average of 38.3 percent.
Traders also seem to be getting a bit nervous about an uptick in market volatility. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is up 6.5 percent since Trump’s inauguration. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures TM ETN (NYSE: VXX) is down 14.1 percent in that time due to the impact of contango.
Gold prices, which are typically another indication of investor fear, are also up since the inauguration. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: GLD) has gained 2.7 percent.
At this point, at least, investors still seem to have a healthy skepticism about the bull market’s prospects, which is typically good news in terms of market health.
The bull market is currently 2,901 days old, making it the second-longest bull market in history. The only bull market that has lasted longer is the epic 4,495-day bull market that lasted from 1987 to 2000.
While most investors have enjoyed the market move since Trump took over the Oval Office, not everyone is happy. As CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla pointed out on Twitter, about 25 percent of the S&P 500 is down since Trump’s inauguration.
Image credit: Emily Elconin
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