How Odds Of Trump's Impeachment Have Changed
If you think Donald Trump will make it through his first term in office without being impeached, don’t bet on it.
According to the newest numbers from bookies in the U.K., the odds of a first-term Trump impeachment have narrowed and are now even on many sites.
While Las Vegas doesn’t allow betting on any events other than sports, U.K. bookies are happy to take bets about Trump’s longevity in office.
Paddy Power currently has the odds of a first-term Trump impeachment at 11/10, up from 2/1 on February 15. Ladbrokes is also pessimistic about Trump’s prospects and currently lists the odds that Trump will “leave office via impeachment or resignation before end of first term” and will “serve a full term” at 11/10 (Editor's note: this paragraph was updated on March 21 to reflect further changes since the story's originally published date.)
Bovada sees the odds Trump completes “a full term as POTUS” at even as well. A $115 bet on a full term in office currently pays off $100, while a $115 bet that the term is cut short also pays off $100.
Trump’s first two months in office has certainly upped the odds of impeachment in the eyes of bookies. Following Election Day in November, Ladbrokes listed the odds that Trump would make it through his first term in office at 3/1.
Some legal experts say Trump has already violated the Constitution by receiving personal financial benefits from foreign governments. California Congresswoman Maxine Waters believes Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric and 90-day travel ban for travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries is grounds for his removal from office.
While smart money seems to be predicting an early departure for Trump, gamblers aren’t necessarily reliable when it comes to politics. Some of the same U.K. bookies had Hillary Clinton as the heavy favorite to win the election back in November.
U.S. investors certainly don’t seem concerned about potential drama in Washington. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) is up 10.0 percent since Election Day.
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