Autodesk Outlook Is Conservative But Macro Environment Is Still A Wildcard: Analyst

Wall Street analysts rerated Autodesk, Inc ADSK after the company reported first-quarter results after Thursday’s closing bell.

Autodesk reported quarterly earnings of $2.29 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.15. Quarterly revenue of $1.63 billion beat the Street estimate of $1.61 billion and is up from revenue of $1.42 billion from the same period last year.

Autodesk expects second-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.44-$2.48, versus the $2.34 analyst estimate, and revenue of $1.72 billion-$1.73 billion, versus the $1.7 billion estimate.

Also Read: Activist Investor Starboard Targets Autodesk’s Board With Proxy Battle – Report

The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $9.34-$9.67 to $9.50-$9.73 versus the $9.52 estimate. Autodesk raised its fiscal revenue guidance from $6.89 billion-$6.96 billion to $6.92 billion-$7 billion, versus the $6.93 billion estimate.

• Keybanc analyst Jason Celino maintained Autodesk with an Overweight and raised the price target from $323 to $350.
• Stifel analyst Adam Borg reiterated Autodesk with a Buy and raised the price target from $310 to $350.

Keybanc: Celino noted that Autodesk reported better first-quarter revenue of $1.63 billion (15% Y/Y) versus Street’s $1.61 billion. The analyst said the higher revenue and continued cost discipline drove an operating margin of 37% (39% adjusted), ahead of Street’s 35.6%.

While Autodesk has not seen any material macro impact yet, it is being prudent and lowering its fiscal 2026 normalized constant currency (CC) billings growth outlook by 1 point to 16%-18%, with the low end contemplating new business growth to decelerate to a similar rate as the pandemic level and EBA renewal uplift rates to deteriorate, he noted.

While it also baked similar prudence into its revenue outlook, that is offset by the fiscal first-quarter outperformance and layering of first-half bookings in the second half, resulting in Autodesk maintaining its full-year normalized CC revenue growth guidance of 8%-9%, Celino said.

With the second-half normalized CC revenue outlook implying growth decelerating to 7%-8% (versus first-quarter’s organic 10%), Celino noted Autodesk’s revenue guidance is relatively conservative. Full-year reported operating margin and free cash flow guidance are moving slightly higher to 36.5%-37% and $2.1 billion-$2.2 billion, respectively, a touch better than consensus of 36.5% and $2.14 billion, to reflect the company’s ongoing cost discipline, the analyst added.

Stifel: Autodesk delivered a solid fiscal first-quarter print, with revenue, operating margin, and EPS above Borg and street expectations and Billings above Autodesk expectations, as underlying CC billings growth and revenue growth improved sequentially.

Despite the more elevated macro uncertainty, the analyst noted that Autodesk cited no change in fundamentals, with solid linearity, and Autodesk closed the second-largest deal in company history. He said that Autodesk continues to work through the transaction model along with the GTM restructuring.

While the macro remains the wildcard, Borg noted that Autodesk’s story is beginning to clean up and that this quarter demonstrated the resilience of Autodesk’s business model.

Looking ahead, the analyst stated that guidance remains conservative. He remained bullish on Autodesk’s strategy and remarked that the company has a number of drivers to sustain at least high-single-digit top-line growth and improve profitability in the coming years.

Price Action: ADSK shares traded lower by 0.08% at $294.74 at last check Friday.

Read Next:

• Why Is Apple Stock Sliding On Friday?

Photo by Piotr Swat via Shutterstock