Aptiv's Growth Trajectory Hits Speed Bump: Morgan Stanley Lowers Forecast

Aptiv PLC (NYSE:APTV) shares are trading lower after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight (from Equal-Weight) and lowered its price target to $74 (from $90).

Aptiv sees FY24 net sales of $21.3 billion-$21.9 billion versus the current consensus of $21.61 billion and Adjusted EPS of $5.55 – $6.05 versus the consensus of $5.78.

The analyst notes a slowdown in demand for EVs and legacy OEMs' willingness to make them, challenging the company's growth-over-market (GOM) assumption.

Notably, Aptiv projects a GOM of 6% to 8% (vs. earlier expectations of 8% to 10%). The analyst anticipates the midpoint of this growth rate to be attained in FY24 (partially led by non-repeat of fourth-quarter UAW strike impact) and projects GOM of 3%-4% thereafter.

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The analyst estimates long-term total revenue growth (2023 to 2030) of 4.8% (including underlying production growth) for Aptiv. 

Jonas expects FY24 Adj. EBIT margins peak at 11.4%, after that falling to 11% by 2026 vs. the company’s mid-decade target of 13% (vs. earlier outlook of 14%-14.5%). 

Price Action: APTV shares are down 3.09% at $81.59 on the last check Wednesday.

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