Analyzing Thor's Strategic Clearance: Analyst Sees Measured Production Rebound Ahead

Truist Securities analyst Michael Swartz reiterated a Hold rating on the shares of Thor Industries Inc THO and raised the price target from $84 to $86.

THO reported solid FY4Q23 results, including adjusted EPS of $1.68 on revenue of $2.74 billion. Both came in above the analyst's $1.13/$2.61 billion estimates.

The topline beat was driven by stronger than anticipated Towable and International revenue; more than offsetting softer Motorized sales, said the analyst.

THO ended FY4Q with a North American backlog of ~$2 billion, down ~67% Y/Y and nearly identical to the prior quarter, added the analyst.

Thor's implied FY4Q retail volume declined ~8% Y/Y, easily outpacing the estimated industry-wide reading of down 15% - 20% Y/Y for the corresponding period, opined the analyst.

The analyst believes this to be largely related to the aggressive clearance of aged products undertaken during the quarter.

The analyst is convinced that an anticipated production rebound would likely unfold at a more measured paced than expected just 2-3 months ago given the ongoing clearance of aged product.

While initial FY24 guidance appears achievable, the analyst views risk/reward as balanced at present, and would look for incremental catalysts to take a more constructive stance.

Price Action: THO shares are trading lower by 2.02% at $92.90 on the last check Tuesday.