Eli Lilly's Solid Portfolio Alzheimer's & Diabetes Drugs To Aid Sales Growth: Analyst

Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas reiterated a Buy rating on Eli Lilly And Company LLY, raising the price target to $525 from $430.

The analyst believes LLY is building a solid franchise in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and diabetes/obesity led by donanemab and Mounjaro, with a robust pipeline of next-gen molecules.

The analyst notes that LLY's donanemab shows compelling data in amyloid clearance and clinical benefit. 

Also Read: Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's Drug Candidate Slows Progression By 60% In Mildly Impaired Patients

However, it will take time and experience for physicians and patients to navigate the diagnostic and treatment ecosystem, Karnauskas adds.

For FY23, the analyst raised donanemab sales from ~$5 billion to ~$8 billion and adjusted the initial ramp. 

Karnauskas raised Mounjaro sales estimates for FY23 to $41 billion from $33 billion. 

Following recent data from remternetug in Alzheimer's disease, the analyst expects sales of ~$1.4 billion (vs. ~ $2 million consensus) as LLY continues to expand their Alzheimer's franchise. 

Given the recent data and plaque clearance, the analyst sees room for additional molecules in combination or sequential utilization with donanemab. 

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For FY23, the analyst credits retatrutide (GGG agonist) with 2032 sales of ~$1.3 billion and sees Orforglipron oral GLP1 peak sales of ~$1.3 billion. 

For FY23, Karnauskas expects LLY's revenues to jump 9.7% to $31.32 billion. Adjusted EPS is estimated to be $8.68, up 9.3% (the prior estimate was $8.81).

For FY24, the analyst expects revenues to be $37.45 billion, with adjusted EPS of $12.50 (the prior estimate was $12.35).

Price Action: LLY shares are trading higher by 2.33% to $464.11 on the last check Thursday.