This Analyst Is One Of The Few Bearish On Netflix, Not Impressed with $3B Indicative FCF Generation In 2023

  • Benchmark analyst Matthew Harrigan reiterates that Netflix Inc NFLX has a Sell and a $250 price target.
  • Advertising initiatives and the nettlesome password sharing crackdown should be ARM accretive but, in Benchmark's view, essentially position the stock to offset SVOD competitive pressure.
  • A survey by Variety magazine suggests Netflix's user interface remains superior to its competitors. 
  • The analyst notes that there are emerging less expensive AVOD alternatives in the market along with the $16 price point offering of HBO Discovery.
  • Harrigan believes Netflix's indicative $3 billion FCF generation in 2023 is not impressive relative to its market capitalization. 
  • The analyst still estimates AVOD could provide $15 to $38 in share value depending on the time frame, subject to execution. 
  • Yet, Netflix's advertising alternative emerged as a significant member share component and projects paid member additions to be around one million in Q1 2023.
  • For Q1 2023, the analyst expects around a 4% Y/Y sales increase to $8.2 billion and a 17% Y/Y decline in operating profit to $1.6 billion, keeping his forecast close to management guidance. 
  • Price Action: NFLX shares traded lower by 0.35% at $337.01 on the last check Wednesday.
  • Photo by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
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