Hershey's Raising The Bar? - This Analyst Thinks Shares As Fairly Valued Ahead Of Investor Day

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  • Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman reiterated an Equal-Weight rating on the shares of Hershey Co HSY with a price target of $246.
  • Hershey is set to host its first Investor Day in five years on March 22, 2023.
  • The company is well positioned to sustain topline growth ahead of packaged food peers beyond 2023 and the analyst sees potential for the company to raise its long-term topline growth algorithm from 2-4% to 3-5%.
  • Hershey's growth outlook is supported by about 3% underlying CMG category growth, benefiting from greater pricing power and renewed consumer preferences for indulgent snacks.
  • Also, 50-100 basis points benefit from growth in Salty Snacks and an incremental 1-2% benefit from acquisitions, which contributed 2% growth to topline on average over the last five years support outlook, said the analyst.
  • The analyst added that the combination of strong pricing, moderating input cost inflation, and the opportunity to drive supply chain/distribution efficiencies support a recovery toward 45% gross margins by 2025.
  • With HSY's shares up 19% in the last 12 months and valuation at 25.3x2024 P/E, investor expectations for HSY are high, remarked the analyst.
  • The analyst believes HSY deserves to trade at a premium valuation given its strong fundamental outlook, but at a 38% P/E premium to the group, HSY's advantaged growth profile is appropriately reflected in its valuation.
  • Price Action: HSY shares are trading lower by 0.22% at $242.61 on the last check Monday.
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