Moderna's Interim Earnings Beat Modestly, Uncertainty Looms Over 2023

  • Moderna Inc MRNA reported interim FY22 COVID-19 vaccine sales of $18.4 billion against $18-19 billion forecasted in the Q3 earnings release and the consensus of $17.8 billion.
  • The company reiterates 2023 expected minimum COVID-19 vaccine sales of approximately $5 billion, with more contracts coming in 2023.
  • BofA writes there were no surprises from the update, but it continues to be cautious on Moderna’s P&L given that increased expenses could pressure earnings over the next few years (2025 BofA EPS - $0.85; consensus $1.81). 
  • Moderna increased investments with around $4.5 billion in 2023, up from approximately $3.3 billion in 2022. Moderna continues to scale with 48 programs in development, including 36 in ongoing clinical studies.
  • BofA analyst writes that the company continues to take the right steps with its COVID-19 windfall by investing in the pipeline. But also share a concern that new product launches such as flu, RSV, or PCV might not ramp as quickly as Spikevax. 
  • Bofa maintains a Neutral rating with a price target of $195. 
  • SVB Leerink says that the timing and scale of booster volume demand over 2023 remain an open question.
  • Also, expectations for transition to a commercial vaccine market have risen substantially as competitor Pfizer Inc PFE has hinted at more aggressive pricing.
  • Price Action: MRNA shares are up 2.37% at $184.62 on the last check Monday
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