Moderna's Interim Earnings Beat Modestly, Uncertainty Looms Over 2023

Moderna Inc MRNA reported interim FY22 COVID-19 vaccine sales of $18.4 billion against $18-19 billion forecasted in the Q3 earnings release and the consensus of $17.8 billion.
The company reiterates 2023 expected minimum COVID-19 vaccine sales of approximately $5 billion, with more contracts coming in 2023.
BofA writes there were no surprises from the update, but it continues to be cautious on Moderna’s P&L given that increased expenses could pressure earnings over the next few years (2025 BofA EPS - $0.85; consensus $1.81).
Moderna increased investments with around $4.5 billion in 2023, up from approximately $3.3 billion in 2022. Moderna continues to scale with 48 programs in development, including 36 in ongoing clinical studies.
BofA analyst writes that the company continues to take the right steps with its COVID-19 windfall by investing in the pipeline. But also share a concern that new product launches such as flu, RSV, or PCV might not ramp as quickly as Spikevax.
Bofa maintains a Neutral rating with a price target of $195.
SVB Leerink says that the timing and scale of booster volume demand over 2023 remain an open question.
Also, expectations for transition to a commercial vaccine market have risen substantially as competitor Pfizer Inc PFE has hinted at more aggressive pricing.
Price Action: MRNA shares are up 2.37% at $184.62 on the last check Monday

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