What SVB Says On Axsome's Strategy Review On Sunosi For Sleeping Disorder

  • Axsome Therapeutics Inc AXSM held an investor event to review its strategy with Sunosi, which is indicated for excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in narcolepsy and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). 
  • SVB Leerink says its view on Sunosi has not changed.
  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc JAZZ struggled to differentiate Sunosi in a generic market, and SVB remains skeptical that Axsome will be able to do much better. 
  • Related: Axsome Acquires Sleep Disorder Drug From Jazz Pharma, Expanding Its Neuroscience Portfolio.
  • Though the analyst believes the acquisition happened at a very attractive price, with good ROI on this investment to follow.
  • Management provided peak sales guidance for OSA/narcolepsy of $300 million -500 million, in range with SVB's estimate for Sunosi before the Jazz launch.
  • The analysts find it aggressive, with $150 million - $250 million more appropriate. 
  • Management points to over $1 billion opportunity, including ADHD indication. This program is just starting in adults (with initial data in 2H23), which then would be followed by studies in kids, suggesting a long way for the potential important label expansion. 
  • Price Action: AXSM shares are down 3.37% at $36.68 during the market session on the last check Wednesday.

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