4 Clear Dynamics For Netflix Shares Going Into Q4 Earnings


Streaming giant Netflix Inc NFLX is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter financial results thiss week, and here's what an analyst at Credit Suisse expects from the company.

The Netflix Analyst: Douglas Mitchelson has an Outperform rating and a $740 price target on Netflix shares.

The Netflix Thesis: Netflix is a high-quality leader that can still grow, but low-hanging fruit has been picked, Mitchelson said in a note. Competition is coming and costs will likely escalate driven by streaming wars and valuation isn't appealing for non-growth investors, the analyst added.

Mitchelson said he is seeing four clear dynamics for Netflix shares going into fourth-quarter earnings:

  1. Investor interest is the lowest in eight years.
  2. Investor sentiment regarding the fourth quarter of 2021, as well as the first quarter of 2022 net adds, has faded due to some negative previews.
  3. The fourth-quarter results are a watershed moment for shares, given the quarter's record content slate.
  4. There is a complete lack of visibility, with app download data analyst not helping to predict fourth-quarter net adds.

Related Link: This Netflix Analyst Says Q4 Subscriber Numbers Will Be Underwhelming: Here's Why

Against this backdrop, Credit Suisse maintained its net adds an estimate of 8.5 million for the fourth quarter and 25 million for the fiscal year 2022 unchanged.

"Bulls are generally patient and still think core TAM, competitive positioning and LT platform opportunities are underappreciated," the firm said.

To get others off the sidelines though would require either confidence in 25 million, plus net adds in 2022, or a change to the long-term growth narrative, Credit Suisse added.

NFLX Price Action: Netflix shares were up 1.2% to $525.69 at market close Friday.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorPreviewsReiterationTop StoriesAnalyst RatingsTrading IdeasCredit SuisseDouglas Mitchelsonstreaming
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