Market Overview

BMO: Aeglea Has A Potentially Market-Conquering Arginase Deficiency Candidate, Oncology Opportunity

BMO: Aeglea Has A Potentially Market-Conquering Arginase Deficiency Candidate, Oncology Opportunity
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Aeglea Bio Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: AGLE) hasn’t received much attention in its two years on the market, but on Thursday it caught the eye of its fourth analyst and fourth bull.

The Rating

BMO Capital Markets analyst Matthew Luchini initiated coverage of Aeglea with an Outperform rating and $21 price target.

The Thesis

BMO expects Aeglea’s pegzilarginase to transform the treatment of Arginase I Deficiency (ARG1-D), which currently lacks effective therapies.

“Pegzilarginase could be the standard of care in ARG1-D, a nearly $400-million unadjusted peak sales opportunity,” Luchini said in a note. The analyst forecast that Aeglea will capture 90 percent of the market within five to nine years. 

The program appears to be derisked by recent Phase 1 and 2 trial data linking clinically relevant improvements to arginine reduction, Luchini said.

BMO expects to see similar results among more patients in the third quarter, paving the way for Phase 3 trials in 2019 and likely approval in 2021.

Notably, the candidate is seen to have potential in oncology, in which there are two ongoing studies with data expected in the fourth quarter.

“We believe the rationale for development in cancer is solid given the large proportion of tumors with arginine-dependence biomarkers across a range of cancer subtypes,” Luchini said. 

He anticipates peak sales exceeding $1 billion in melanoma and small-cell lung cancer alone. 

Price Action

Shares peaked 9 percent on the BMO rating but had faded back to $10.24 by the time of publication Thursday. 

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Latest Ratings for AGLE

Sep 2018Wells FargoDowngradesOutperformMarket Perform
Jun 2018BMO CapitalInitiates Coverage OnOutperform
Apr 2018Evercore ISI GroupInitiates Coverage OnOutperform

View More Analyst Ratings for AGLE
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: BMO Capital Markets Matthew LuchiniAnalyst Color Biotech Price Target Initiation Analyst Ratings General Best of Benzinga


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