Market Overview

Competing Bid Unlikely In Andeavor-Marathon Merger, Credit Suisse Says In Downgrade

Share:
Competing Bid Unlikely In Andeavor-Marathon Merger, Credit Suisse Says In Downgrade
Related
Earnings Scheduled For August 6, 2018
Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For May 14, 2018

Andeavor (NYSE: ANDV) announced an agreement April 30 to merge with Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE: MPC) for $36.6 billion.

The Analyst

Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta downgraded shares of Andeavor from Outperform to Neutral and raised his price target from $142 to $145. 

The Thesis

Marathon Petroleum's offer fairly values Andeavor, and a competing bid is unlikely, limiting upside to the stock price, Gupta said in a Friday note.

"Any delays on the regulatory front will disproportionally affect ANDV more than MPC."

The narrowing of West Coast base cracks would represent a near-tern headwind for the company, Gupta said. Andeavor barely broke even on the West Coast in the first quarter and lost money in two of four quarters in 2017, the analyst said.

Gupta views the $1 billion in  synergies Andeavor expects within three years of the completion of the deal as achievable.

Upside to retail synergies cannot be ruled out, the analyst said, citing Marathon CEO Gary Heminger's track record.

That said, Gupta conceded that Andeavor's standalone IMO 2020 EBITDA guidance of $2.5 billion is "aggressive."

Credit Suisse projects a bigger role for Andeavor CEO Gregory Goff even after the deal closes.

The Price Action

Following the deal announcement, Andeavor stock surged 13 percent April 30 and has added about 29 percent year-to-date.

Related Links:

BMO Upgrades Cenovus Amid Stronger Oil Prices

Oil Refiner HollyFrontier Upgraded By Morgan Stanley Ahead Of Q1 Print, Summer Driving Season

Latest Ratings for ANDV

DateFirmActionFromTo
Sep 2018CitigroupMaintainsNeutralNeutral
Aug 2018MizuhoInitiates Coverage OnNeutral
May 2018Morgan StanleyMaintainsEqual-WeightEqual-Weight

View More Analyst Ratings for ANDV
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Credit Suisse Manav GuptaAnalyst Color News Downgrades Price Target M&A Analyst Ratings Best of Benzinga

 

Related Articles (MPC + ANDV)

View Comments and Join the Discussion!

Latest Ratings

StockFirmActionPT
JBLGoldman SachsUpgrades0.0
IMOBarclaysUpgrades0.0
JRVRKeefe Bruyette & WoodsDowngrades40.0
ADMPB. Riley FBRDowngrades2.5
EAFVertical GroupDowngrades9.0
View the Latest Analytics Ratings
Don't Miss Out!
Join Our Newsletter
Subscribe to:
Market in 5 Minutes
Everything you need to know about the market - quick & easy.
Daily Analyst Rating
A summary of each day’s top rating changes from sell-side analysts on the street.
Fintech Focus
Your weekly roundup of hot topics in the exciting world of fintech.
Thank You
for registering for Benzinga’s newsletters and alerts.
• The Daily Analysts Ratings email will be received daily between 7am and 10am.
• The Market in 5 Minutes email will be received daily between 7am and 8am.
• The Fintech Focus email will be received every Friday between 2pm and 5pm.

EUR/USD Forecast: Oversold Is Overrated, The Italian Job And US Yields Crush The Pair

Why YouTube Is Focused On Music Streaming