What To Expect In Netflix's Q1 Earnings Report
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is scheduled to report its first quarter results on Monday and expectations are high based on the options market, which is pricing in a 10 percent move in either direction.
The company is expected to post earnings of 64 cents per share on sales of $3.69 billion. The stock was trading around $312 late Friday afternoon.
Here's a summary of what analysts are saying ahead of the print.
Rating And Price Target
- Buckingham Research Group's Matthew Harrigan: Neutral rating, upside case of $353 and a downside case of $159.
- Stifel's Scott Devitt: Hold rating, $325 price target.
- Wedbush's Michael Pachter: Underperform rating, $110 price target.
- KeyBanc Capital Markets' Andy Hargreaves: Overweight rating, $300 price target (under review pending results).
- Goldman Sachs' Heath Terry: Buy rating, $360 price target.
- Morgan Stanley's Benjamin Swinburne: Overweight rating, $350 price target.
- Aegis Capital's Victor Anthony: Hold rating, $230 price target.
- Deutsche Bank's Bryan Kraft: Buy rating, $350 price target.
What Wall Street Is Saying
Buckingham
- Harrigan is modeling Netflix to earn 62 cents per share in the first quarter on revenue of $3.684 billion.
- Netflix likely added 6.4 million net new global users.
- Netflix benefited from new shows like "Jessica Jones" and a soft Winter Olympic ratings.
- Expectations for continued upside to subscriber addition estimates has already flowed into the stock.
- Netflix stock is up nearly 200 percent over the past two years, which creates a "between price action and intermediate estimates."
Stifel
- Devitt is modeling Netflix to earn 63 cents per share on revenue of $3.6928 billion.
- Netflix should show it added 1.47 million net domestic subscribers and 4.94 million net international subscribers.
- Revenue growth of 40.1 percent year-over-year is attributed to the late 2017 price hike.
- Investors should look out for updates relating to the full year free cash flow and margin outlook.
Wedbush
- Pachter is modeling Netflix to earn 65 cents per share on revenue of $3.7 billion.
- Netflix likely added 1.5 million net domestic subscribers and 5.25 million net international subscribers.
- A "steady stream" of new global content helped mitigate churn.
- Despite expectations for strong subscriber additions, financial and competitive risks remain equally "concerning" now as it has been in the past.
KeyBanc
- Hargreaves is modeling Netflix to earn 63 cents per share on revenue of $3.68 billion.
- Netflix's global subscriber net additions could come in between 7 million and 7.3 million.
- Netflix has beaten its own subscriber net addition guidance in 10 of the past 12 quarters.
Goldman Sachs
- Terry is modeling Netflix to earn 63 cents per share on revenue of $3.7 billion.
- Netflix likely added 1.7 million net subscribers in the U.S. market and 5.6 million international net subscribers.
- Incremental marketing spend will likely result in marketing deleverage of 320 basis points from a year ago.
- Cash burn is expected to grow from $2 billion in the full year 2017 to $3 billion for the full year 2018.
Morgan Stanley
- Swinburne is modeling Netflix to 63 cents per share on revenue of 3.6856 billion.
- Netflix may have added 1.45 million net U.S. subscribers and 4.9 million net international subscribers.
- Netflix's approximate 120 million global subscriber base implies it's very much in the "early stages" of a global growth.
- Netflix's total addressable market excluding China stands at more than 600 million broadband homes and continues to grow.
Aegis
- Anthony is modeling Netflix to 64 cents per share on revenue of $3.71 billion.
- Netflix may have added 1.65 million net U.S. subscribers and 6 million international net subscribers.
- Netflix's second quarter is up against a "tough" content slate comparison, which may lead to a "less robust" guidance.
- The analyst is modeling 1.5 million domestic net additions and 5.5 million international net additions in the second quarter.
- The company also needs to show progress on operating margin expansion and reassure investors cash burn would ease.
Image credit: Matthew Keys, Flickr
Latest Ratings for NFLX
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jan 2021 | Pivotal Research | Maintains | Buy | |
Jan 2021 | Morgan Stanley | Maintains | Overweight | |
Jan 2021 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintains | Buy |
View More Analyst Ratings for NFLX
View the Latest Analyst Ratings
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