BTIG’s Ling Wang believes Ophthotech Corp OPHT's Fovista has the potential to “break through the therapeutic ceiling of current anti-VEGF therapies.”
Wang initiated coverage of the company with a Buy rating and price target of $92.
“We view the ongoing Phase III program of Fovista in wet AMD as derisked and expect positive top-line data from the first two Phase III trials by YE16 to represent key near-term catalysts,” the analyst mentioned.
Wang expects a 65-percent probability of success for Fovista and peak U.S. sales of $1.6 billion, valuing the drug in wet AMD alone at $3.3 billion.
Additional upside could come from expanded indications of Fovista, as well as from Zimura.
For Fovista, Wang stated, “Positive efficacy in the primary and secondary endpoints, consistent results across various subgroup analyses from a large, randomized Phase IIb trial and the similar design between the Phase IIb and III trials suggest a de-risked Phase III.”
The drug has also shown signs of efficacy duration, with the interim data for the Phase II anti-fibrosis trial suggesting good durability beyond six months, although in only a small percentage of patients.
Large Unmet Need
Wang also pointed out that competing products from Ophthotech’s peers were at least three years behind, which gave Fovista a meaningful first-mover advantage.
The analyst also noted that Fovista addresses a large unmet need, given that the long term benefit of antiVEGF agents in wet AMD continue to be suboptimal.
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