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Anyone Playing The Yellen-Gold Rally Should Read This Before Getting Too Excited

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Anyone Playing The Yellen-Gold Rally Should Read This Before Getting Too Excited

The price of gold is up following a cautious speech this week by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. HSBC analyst James Steel believes that the market was watching her speech closely for any signs of a possible April rate hike.

So far, the market appears satisfied that Yellen’s speech means that there won’t be any surprise rate hikes any time soon.

According to Steel, gold investors had several key takeaways from Yellen’s speech:

  • The expectation of low rates has helped insulate the U.S. from international economic weakness.
  • The outlook for inflation remains murky, and it’s still too early to determine whether or not recent increases are sustainable.
  • If the U.S. economy comes across any unexpected bumps in the road, the Fed has very little flexibility at this point and should proceed cautiously in the face of a weaker Chinese economy and global oil market.

Related Link: Macquarie: Oil Will Fall To Low $30s Again

Steel sees Friday’s U.S. employment number as the next big catalyst for gold.

“A number above 200,000 new net jobs could wear on gold and clip recent gains,” Steel explained.

He added that it would take an exceptional employment number to convince the market that there's a risk of an April rate hike.

So far this year, the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE: GLD) is up 16.1 percent.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.

Image Credit: Public Domain

Latest Ratings for GLD

DateFirmActionFromTo
Apr 2013Oracle Investment ResearchInitiates Coverage onStrong Buy
Apr 2013Oracle Investment ResearchInitiates Coverage onStrong Buy

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