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Morgan Stanley Upgrades Vipshop, Refocuses On Effective User Growth

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Morgan Stanley's Robert Lin upgraded the rating on Vipshop Holdings Ltd – ADR (NYSE: VIPS) from Underweight to Equal-weight, with a price target of $13.

Lin believes that following the price correction, the risk/reward profile of the stock has become balanced, and mentioned that better than anticipated customer adds and operating leverage drove a 12 percent earnings beat in 4Q15.

The company reported 65 percent year-on-year revenue growth, ahead of the expectations and guidance, driven by robust year-on-year active customer growth of 58 percent and per customer spending growth of 6 percent year-on-year.

"New active customer adds reached a historical high at 8.4mn, driven by aggressive promotions, with a declining customer loss rate," Lin stated.

Non-GAAP EPS grew 53 percent year-on-year to Rmb1.18. However, the analyst believes that the 1Q16 guidance of 37-41 percent year-on-year growth was conservative and below consensus.

"According to Analysys, VIPS' MAU growth remained resilient in January. Given a higher comparison base, slowing macro and lack of big promotions, we think the company may be conservatively guiding 1Q16 vs, our forecast of +41 percent year on year growth," Lin pointed out.

In addition, channel checks suggest that although Vipshop might have become marginally more expensive since 2014, it was still the most competitive flash sales channel.

Latest Ratings for VIPS

Jan 2018BernsteinUpgradesMarket PerformOutperform
Dec 2017Daiwa CapitalUpgradesHoldBuy
Oct 2017UBSInitiates Coverage OnNeutral

View More Analyst Ratings for VIPS
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Posted-In: Morgan Stanley Robert LinAnalyst Color Upgrades Analyst Ratings


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