Dunkin' Downgraded At Piper, Stock Now Worth Only $42 Firm Says

• The share price of Dunkin Brands Group Inc DNKN has declined 24.32 percent over the last three months, hitting a low of $39.57 on Thursday.
• Piper Jaffray’s Nicole Miller Regan has downgraded the rating on the company from Overweight to Neutral, while lowering the price target to $42.
• Although Miller Regan believes that the company’s forward guidance is achievable, there appear to be limited catalysts to the stock.

Analyst Nicole Miller Regan reported that Dunkin Brands posted a 6 percent year-on-year increase in its operating earnings for the third quarter, while total revenues increased 9 percent year-on-year. The company also reiterated its earnings guidance for FY15.

According to the Piper Jaffray report, “The company executed a number of human capital changes this quarter.” While Miller Regan agrees with the investments “investments to bring the next generation of talent front and center,” she also believes that there could be some operational and/or execution risk associated with “these types of human capital shifts.”

These leaders are expected to facilitate consistent momentum in comps, along with positive net development over time. “This, in addition to a slower comp landscape, gives us pause,” Miller Regan stated.

Given that same-store sales have been driven by beverage sales associated with Dunkin Brands’ dominant and legacy positioning, rather than from food attach rates or daypart expansion, Miller Regan does not expect meaningful acceleration.

Although the current restaurant cycle appears favorable, Miller Regan sees the stock as fully valued.