MKM Downgrades Marriott Vacations, Risk-Reward Surrounding 2018 Upside Scenario Better Priced

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In a report published Monday, MKM Partners analyst Christopher Agnew downgraded the rating on
Marriott Vacations Worldwide CorpVAC
from Buy to Neutral, while maintaining the price target at $97, saying that the company's stock already reflected optimism around 2018. Analyst Christopher Agnew said that the earnings trends at the company as well as in the broader timeshare industry remained positive. Agnew expects Marriott Vacations to report 2Q revenue of $432mn, EBITDA of $55mn and EPS of $0.81. "We expect continued strength in VPG trends, 4%-6% y/y, development margins and FCF." In the report MKM Partners noted, "Since its spin-out, management has strengthened margins, streamlined the balance sheet and improved ROIC. The company generates strong FCF and is returning cash to shareholders." Agnew expects newly announced locations to boost growth, helping the company to achieve its 2018 EBITDA target of $270-$310mn and ROIC targets of 26-30 percent. Marriott Vacations' shares have surged 20 percent year-to-date and 55 percent in the last 12 months. Following this uptrend, the analyst believes that "the upside scenario is now more fully reflected in the stock."
Posted In: Analyst ColorDowngradesAnalyst RatingsMKM Partners
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