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Technology Disruptors And The Future Of The Internet: Cantor Provides Some Ideas For 2015

Technology Disruptors And The Future Of The Internet: Cantor Provides Some Ideas For 2015

In a report titled Technology Disruptors And The Future Of The Internet” a team of Cantor Fitzgerald analysts look into the online advertising and e-commerce markets and the stocks related to them “to reflect continued improvement in the U.S. economic environment and the new conditions in Europe.”

The note points out the top 10 key themes for the Internet in 2015, namely:

  • 1. Mobile overtakes desktop as the browsing platform of choice.
  • 2. Programmatic premium ad buying will forever change ad sales.
  • 3. Video and the coming big shift of TV dollars online.
  • 4. Is there a tectonic shift in search share away from Google?
  • 5. Why the best is yet to come for online commerce.
  • 6. Free shipping becoming the norm; same-day delivery remains the final frontier.
  • 7. Will the rise of Omni-channel commerce save incumbents or accelerate their demise?
  • 8. Cash hoarders and the tax reform on foreign profits.
  • 9. The rise of the sharing economy where access trumps ownership.
  • 10. Winners and losers of net neutrality.

Related Link: 3 Ways You're Making Trading Much Harder Than It Needs To Be

After a very strong 2013 where Internet stocks returned about 50 percent, based on the Cantor Internet Index, 2014 was quite weak, with shares down 8 percent. However, given that the fundamentals of the group over the period did not change all that much, analysts expect returns to normalize in 2015.

“Online advertising grew ~16%Y/Y for both 2013 and 2014, while ecommerce saw a 17% and 16% increase, respectively.” For 2015, Cantor estimates that online advertising and e-commerce “will still show mid-teens growth, implying no material slowdown driven by a) an improving U.S. economy and lower energy prices, both of which are helping drive consumer spending and growth in ad budgets; b) stabilization in some European economies, which should become a tailwind to earnings; and c) continued secular shift to online from offline, given the still low levels of online penetration in both commerce and advertising.”

Moreover, analysts expect ad dollars to “continue to flow online as advertisers chase their audiences with increasingly sophisticated targeting and ad formats. This healthy ecosystem, combined with lowered 2015 expectations (mostly on F/X) and reasonable valuations should drive the group higher in 2015, in our view.”

Best Ideas For 2015

The report also points out a few top growth picks for the coming year. These are Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) (Buy , $90 price target), Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (Buy, $635 price target) and (NASDAQ: PCLN) (Buy, $1,350 price target).

For 2015, Cantor also expects:

  • mid-teens growth for online advertising budgets.
  • Display to “take the baton from Search to drive future growth in online advertising.”
  • FX to remain a major headwind to year-over-year growth.
  • Low penetration, improving economies, lower energy prices and FX to drive e-commerce.
  • The online travel industry to grow healthily (about 10 percent year-over-year, about double the pace of the overall travel category).
  • A potential reform of tax on foreign profits to “boost M&A, dividends and buybacks.”

Latest Ratings for FB

Nov 2019UpgradesOutperformBuy
Oct 2019MaintainsHold
Oct 2019MaintainsOverweight

View More Analyst Ratings for FB
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

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