Bullish On Alibaba? This Wall Street Firm Is
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) is scheduled to report earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2015 on January 29 before the market open. In a report published Monday. Stifel expects strong results ahead of consensus expectations, with TMall and Mobile driving upside. The firm reiterated a Buy rating, accompanied by a $115 price target.
Strong Financial Results
For F3Q15, the firm estimates:
- China Retail Marketplace GMV of $127.7 billion
- Total revenue of $4,605 million, versus consensus expectations of $4,422 million
- Adj. EBITDA of $2,451 million, compared to consensus of $2,269 million
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.81, against the $0.75 consensus.
According to the report, “this quarter there were two nationwide eCommerce promotional campaigns: Double 11 (Nov. 11 or Single’s Day) and Double 12 (Dec 12). We expect mobile GMV to reach 40% of total GMV, up from 36% one quarter ago. Recall that on Single’s Day, TMall’s total GMV topped RMB57.1 billion +63% y/y inclusive of mobile GMV of RMB 24.3 billion +354% y/y. Mobile was 43% of total GMV. Faster TMall GMV growth drives a higher mobile take rate.”
Stifel’s report mentions a couple other growth drivers, namely, the decline in oil prices and some strategic investments. While the retail price of gasoline in China has dropped about 20 percent, this benefited Alibaba in a way, mainly through B2B sites Alibaba.com and 1688.com.
Regarding investments, Stifel points out, “1) Israeli O2O (Offline to Online) Start-up Visualead which owns visual QR Code technology; 2) Kuadi Dache, China’s leading Mobile Taxi and business car booking app; and 3) AdChina, China’s leading digital marketing platform.”
Latest Ratings for BABA
|Jan 2017||Bernstein||Initiates Coverage On||Outperform|
|Jan 2017||Standpoint Research||Upgrades||Hold||Accumulate|
|Nov 2016||Brean Capital||Maintains||Buy|
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