Jefferies Sees ~$100M Sales Potential In 2011 For AMAG

Jefferies & Company has published a research report on AMAG Pharmaceuticals

and has decided that current sales guidance appears a bit aggressive. In the report, Jefferies writes "Contrast to strong IMS sales data, 4Q Feraheme sales came in line with expectations (~flat q/q). As predicted, 2011 sales guidance is below consensus, but we view guidance as aggressive and maintain our below-guidance sales estimate. We continue to forecast Feraheme peak annual sales potential at sub-$100M. AMAG's preannounced 4Q10 Feraheme sales are in line with our/cons estimates, but lower than what IMS sales data indicated. IMS sales data for Oct/Nov 2010 showed ~35% q/q Feraheme growth (despite ~flat TRx for the same period) versus our 4Q10 Feraheme sales estimate of $14.4M (-4% q/q) and consensus of ~$15M (flat q/q). Based on total Feraheme provider demand and launch incentive program utilization of 27,500 grams in 4Q10, we estimate net sales price of ~$545/g, >30% discount to the WAC. We expect these gross-to-net sales adjustments (which may not be captured by IMS) will likely continue through 2011." JP Morgan maintains its Underperform rating and $12 price target. AMAG Pharmaceuticals closed Friday at $18.00.