Thursday Thoughts – Healthy Pullback or THE END OF THE WORLD?

Congrats to all who played that game with us as oil bottoms out BELOW $94 this morning (and still hasn't gotten back over the line).  We took 1/2 the money and ran on our doubled-down trades on USO and SCO but $92.50 may be bust for this drop so we'll hang in and see how low we can go this week.  Meanwhile, we got a short, sharp shock thanks to the Fed yesterday but it's perfect for the way we've been playing as we had a few short callers (GOOG, FAS, TSLA) that were getting away from us and Members were getting tired of my calling for patience as we've been waiting for this little correction for over a week now. 

Using the Big Chart and, of course, our famous 5% Rule to tell us what's going to happen, we can see we had a 1,000-point run in the Dow from 13,000 (we don't count spikes) to 14,000 and that means we expect a 20% pullback (of the run) of 200 points to the 13,800 line as a HEALTY correction.  Another 200 points would take us to 13,600 and – lo and behold – it's our Must Hold line and guess what – it MUST HOLD or the markets are truly turning bearish.  

Of course we predicted the Must Hold line way back in 2009 so not to surprising that, overall, we end up consolidating there in the bigger picture (see bigger chart).  We are NOT expecting to test 13,600 though, that's just the worst-case, where we would be BUYBUYBUYing on the dip but we HOPE to see 13,800 tested so we can get over it and consolidate for a real move (not a spike) over 14,000, as well as our 10% lines on the Nasdaq (3,300) and the S&P (1,520), which came so close to making us up our levels but failed – right on schedule! 

We're looking 

IN PROGRESS