Dollar Tree Q1 Earnings Preview: Can The Discount Retailer Beat And Raise Like Peer Dollar General?

Discount retailer Dollar Tree Inc DLTR could highlight changing consumer spending habits and the impact of tariffs on consumers when the company reports first-quarter financial results before market open Wednesday.

Here are the analyst estimates, what they’re saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Dollar Tree to report first-quarter sales of $4.54 billion, down from $7.63 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for sales in two straight quarters and seven of the last 10 quarters overall. Lower sales figures are due to the exclusion of the Family Dollar business, which is being sold off.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of $1.20 in the first quarter, down from $1.43 in the same period last year.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and six of the last 10 quarters overall.

Guidance from the company calls for first-quarter adjusted EPS to be in a range of $1.10 to $1.25.

What Analysts Are Saying: Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane gave Dollar Tree a Buy rating and $86 price target ahead of the earnings report after positive commentary from management on the impact of tariffs.

McShane said Dollar Tree management said tariffs typically take three to four months, or more than a quarter, to impact inventory, which could provide a buffer before tariffs impact financial results.

She added that Dollar Tree's pricing and cost strategies could help offset tariff impact and maintain the company's value offerings.

McShane said Dollar Tree showed strength in the fourth quarter and that could continue into the first quarter results. She said the company's sale of Family Dollar could improve free cash flow.

Citi Research analyst Paul Lejuez upgraded Dollar Tree stock ahead of the earnings report, raising it from a Neutral rating to a Buy rating and a $103 price target.

The analyst said Dollar Tree could be one of the "silent beneficiaries' of the tariff trade.

Lejuez said higher tariffs could enable Dollar Tree to raise its prices from its $1.25 standard price to $1.50 or even $1.75, which would boost margins. While it would help offset some higher costs, he said, it would allow the company to raise prices without as much blowback as doing this in a non-tariff impacted time.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Dollar Tree and their price targets:

Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $90 to $105
Truist: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $89 to $100
UBS: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $95 to $108
Telsey: Maintained Market Perform rating, raised price target from $82 to $95

Key Items to Watch: Dollar Tree's financial results come a day after rival Dollar General Corporation DG reported quarterly results and guidance.

Dollar General beat analyst estimates for sales and earnings per share and saw strength in same-store sales during the quarter.

Perhaps more importantly, Dollar General's guidance was higher than before, with the company cautious on tariffs but showing updated expectations after the first-quarter outperformance. The company raised its full-year sales growth range from 3.4% to 4.4% to a new range of 3.7% to 4.7%. The company also raised its full-year earnings per share range from $5.10 to $5.80 to a new range of $5.20 to $5.80.

A strong quarter for Dollar General could be good news for Dollar Tree, assuming it did not lose market share and that discount retailers took share from big-box retailers.

A Placer.ai report showed Dollar General’s visitor growth of 1.9% in the first quarter, compared to Dollar Tree’s +4.8 %.

Dollar Tree's growth in each of the first three quarters of the year outperformed Dollar General for visitor growth in the Placer.ai report.

For the month of April, the report showed Dollar General visitors up 6.5% year-over-year, compared to Dollar Tree, which saw a 21.2% increase, a number that could factor into Dollar Tree’s guidance.

Another key item to watch is Dollar Tree's sale of the Family Dollar business for $1 billion and how it will impact the company's future financials.

"In the fourth quarter, our team was focused on successfully closing out the year, bringing the strategic review to a favorable conclusion, and setting Dollar Tree on a path to realize its full potential to create long-term value for our associates, customers, and shareholders," said CEO Mike Creedon.

The company provided updated full-year guidance based on the sale of Dollar Tree with sales estimates set at a range of $18.5 billion and $19.1 billion and earnings per share of $5.00 to $5.50.

Analysts and investors will be closely watching to see if guidance has changed going forward.

Tariffs will be another key topic that analysts and investors are watching as Dollar Tree was one of the first retailers to speak out about potential higher prices for consumers as a result.

The company also said at the time that it could change product specs and pack sizes and stop selling unprofitable items to offset tariffs.

Dollar General's earnings report showed strength and a potential lower than expected impact from tariffs. Dollar Tree may highlight how it is getting around tariffs and commentary that could impress investors and analysts.

DLTR Price Action: Dollar Tree stock is up 3.5% to $94.41 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $60.49 to $121.96. Dollar Tree stock is up 23.4% year-to-date in 2025, while shares are down 22% over the last year.

For comparison, Dollar General stock was up 12.5% to $109.35 on Tuesday, following the company's financial results. Dollar General stock is up 44.6% year-to-date in 2025, but shares are down 22% over the last year.

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