The VIX sits about 27.50 and its futures curve is upward sloping into election week. Options expiring that week will have higher implied volatility, even in individual stocks. Speaking of individual stocks, we're now entering the heart of earnings season so keeping an eye on the earnings calendar is crucial. And it's not just earnings, Biogen, which reports this week has a much bigger event the first week of November and is producing one of the more wild expected move charts you'll ever see (see below in Earnings of Note).
Here's how this week looks through the lens of the options market. Moves are from Monday's open to Friday's close.
Expected Moves via Options AI
- Last week's expected move in SPY: 1.6%
- Last week’s actual move SPY: -0.7%
- This week's expected move in SPY: 1.7%:
Earnings Week
Banks/Financial earnings dominated last week. This week focus turns to some big tech names and our first look at some high-flyers and story stocks like Tesla, Netflix and Snap.
Here's a quick 7 day expected move overlay of some notable names set to report. Below in Earnings of Note, we'll look at these individually, zeroing in on their expected moves for Friday's close as well as how they moved last earnings:
Earnings of Note
Earnings time, expected move for this Friday (highlighted on Options AI chart), the stock levels those correspond to currently, and last earning's actual move:
Monday 4:05pm - International Business Machines IBM | expected move: 3.8% (last earnings: +4.6%)
Tuesday 7:00am - Proctor & Gamble PG | expected move: 2.6% (last earnings: +2.9%)
Tuesday 7:30am - Lockheed Martin LMT | expected move: 3.0% (last earnings: +3.7%)
Tuesday 4:00pm - Netflix NFLX | expected move: 7.9% (last earnings: -8.2%)
Tuesday 4:00pm - Texas Instruments TXN | expected move: 4.1% (last earnings: -3.7%)
Tuesday 4:10pm - Snap SNAP | expected move: 11.2% (last earnings: -9.2%)
Wednesday 6:30am - Biogen BIIB | expected move: 4.1% (last earnings: +2.2%)
Wednesday 7:30am - Abbott Laboratories ABT | expected move: 3.4% (last earnings: -2.5%)
Wednesday 4:00pm - Las Vegas Sands LVS | expected move: 5.3% (last earnings: -5.5%)
Wednesday 4:10pm - Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG | expected move: 5.7% (last earnings: -5.8%)
Wednesday 4:25pm - Tesla TSLA | expected move: 8.4% (last earnings: -7.0%)
Thursday 6:30am - Southwest Airlines LUV | expected move: 4.5% (last earnings: -3.7%)
Thursday 6:55am - The Coca-Cola Co KO | expected move: 2.5% (last earnings: +4.1%)
Thursday 7:00am - American Airlines AAL | expected move: 6.1% (last earnings: +9.3%)
Thursday 7:05am - AT&T T | expected move: 3.1% (last earnings: -2.1%)
Thursday 4:00pm - Intel INTC | expected move: 4.7% (last earnings: -18.0%)
Friday 7:00am - American Express AXP | expected move: 3.3% (last earnings: -3.5%)
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