The Retail Parade Begins Next Week

This week we saw a slew of results from media companies, which kicked off on Wednesday with reports from Time Warner Inc TWX, CBS Corporation CBS and News Corp NWSA.

Both Time Warner and News Corp were able to be both the Wall Street consensus and the higher Estimize consensus on the top and bottom-line, while CBS surpassed the Street’s expectations, but fell short of what we were calling for here at Estimize. 

Disney was the most anticipated release after yesterday’s closing bell, and results disappointed. While EPS of $0.89 and revenues of $12.39B met the Wall Street estimates, they missed the Estimize consensus by $0.04 on the bottom-line and $59M on the top-line. Stocks fell in after hours trading, and are still down 3% today.

Next week, the retail parade begins, with Fossil reporting Tuesday, Macy’s on Wednesday, and Wal-Mart, Kohl’s and Nordstrom on Thursday. 

All five of these retailers are anticipated to post year-over-year growth for both profits and sales.

Those expected to be the biggest winners on the EPS front are Fossil and Macy’s, estimated to increase 16% and 12% from Q3 2013. On the revenue front, only Nordstrom is expecting double-digit growth of 10% for the third quarter.

Of the retail industries within the S&P 500, internet retailers came in the strongest with 25% earnings growth year-over-year; all 5 companies from that industry have reported.

The next best estimate comes from the specialty retailers, anticipated to increase 14.8% this quarter off of strength from Best Buy which is expected to show a profit increase of 52% when they report November 20, and from home improvement outfits such as Home Depot and Lowe’s both expecting growth of over 20%.

The textiles, apparel & luxury goods industry is looking to grow 10.1%, incredible results from Michael Kors earlier this week helped to boost the industry. The biggest loser this quarter are the multi-line retailers, with low growth of 2.3% due to disappointing results and expectations from the discounters.

How Are We Doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter stand at 11.6%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 4.9% growth. All 10 sectors are anticipated to post positive YoY growth on both the earnings and revenue front.

Earnings:

Energy (14.4%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (14.6%)

Consumer Discretionary (14.3%). Notable industry: Internet Retailers (25.3%)

Health Care (13.9%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (45.1%)

Revenues:

Health Care (12.1%). Notable industry: Biotech (39.0%).

Information Technology (7.1%). Notable industry: Software (15.7%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Utilities (3.0%). Notable industry: Electric Utilities (0.7%).

Telecommunication Services (1.4%): All five companies are within Diversified Telecom Services. Only Verizon posted y­o­y growth.

Revenues:

Energy (1.2%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­0.5%).

Materials (2.4%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.3%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With over 80% of the S&P 500 reporting thus far, 56% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 34% have missed and 10% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 72% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 21% have missed and 7% have met.

Revenue: 52% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 48% have missed, and 0% have met. For revenues, 59% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 41% have missed.