Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean Stocks Sink 20% —JPMorgan Says No Iceberg Ahead

Cruise stocks, such as Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE:NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE:RCL) have been treated like a disaster is already happening — sliding over 20% since late September while investors rush for the exits.

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But after meeting with industry executives and conducting field checks, JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss says the sell-off looks like panic pricing with no real-world evidence to support it.

Fear Is Driving Cruise Stocks Down, Not Fundamentals

Boss says the fear narrative dominating the sector right now is built on two speculative worries: a potential consumer slowdown in 2026 and pressure from rising Caribbean capacity. That concern has snowballed across trading desks, but JPMorgan argues it's mostly theoretical, noting that there are no meaningful signs of weakening demand.

In fact, Boss says the Caribbean "oversupply" scare is missing critical context — bookings are already nearly sold out into the first quarter next year, and pricing has held through Black Friday and Wave season checks. The disconnect, he says, is stark: the stock charts look broken, but the booking curve looks healthy.

Read Also: Carnival Cruises Ahead With Record Pricing And Strong 2026 Bookings

Under-Promise, Over-Deliver Setup

With expectations washed out and management teams likely to guide cautiously for 2026, Boss believes the industry is setting up for an upside surprise. The combination of strong demand for new ships, surging interest in private island destinations and a wave of new-to-cruise customers supports pricing power that doesn't resemble distress.

JPMorgan also points to several macro tailwinds into 2026 — stronger tax refunds, no election-year noise, and easier comparisons versus last year's booking volatility — which could all reinforce momentum instead of breaking it.

Why It Matters?

Carnival, Norwegian, and Royal Caribbean may be trading like a sector that is sinking, but JPMorgan's read is the opposite: no iceberg, no slowdown, and no collapse in visibility.

If anything, the analyst says, investors are confusing turbulence with trajectory — and that disconnect could be the setup the market is missing.

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