EXCLUSIVE: Tariff Titans - Why Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, Steel Dynamics Could Outmuscle The Competition

Steel tariffs are back with a bang, and investors are already positioning for the winners. As the U.S. slaps a prohibitive 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc CLF, Nucor Corp NUE and Steel Dynamics Inc STLD are emerging as the early champions of this protectionist pivot.

According to Tracy Shuchart, senior economist at NinjaTrader, the tariff surge is a short-term policy maneuver, but it brings long-term opportunities for domestic producers. “At 50%, these tariffs are reaching what economists call prohibitive levels—they’re so high that they fundamentally distort market mechanisms rather than simply providing competitive protection,” Shuchart said in an exclusive email interview with Benzinga.

Read Also: Trump’s 50% Steel Tariff Could Drive Up The Costs For Automakers: ‘Almost $2,000 Of Cost For Each Car’

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Tariffs To Benefit Cleveland, Nucor, Steel Dynamics’ Margins

Cleveland-Cliffs saw a 25.2% gain in early trading after the announcement, not just on sentiment but solid fundamentals. The company is heavily exposed to imports, particularly in flat-rolled products, and now has room to raise prices by $200-300 per ton while still staying competitive.

“Cliffs can immediately implement price increases of $200–300 per ton while still remaining competitive,” Shuchart added.

Nucor, with its low-cost electric arc furnace model, is positioned to expand its already solid margins. Its scale, cost discipline, and flexible mini-mill network could boost EBITDA margins to the 18–20% range over the next 12–18 months. “With import competition effectively removed, Nucor can maintain its cost advantage while capturing significantly higher margins,” Shuchart said.

Meanwhile, Steel Dynamics, which had ventured into aluminum production, now looks prophetic. With both steel and aluminum tariffs rising, Steel Dynamics’s dual exposure could unlock a new wave of pricing power. “This diversification strategy, which seemed risky 18 months ago, now looks prescient,” said Shuchart.

Broad-Market Beneficiaries

Investors looking to ride the broader wave may also consider steel-focused ETFs like the VanEck Steel ETF SLX or the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF XME, which offer diversified exposure to these names.

While these gains are real, Shuchart cautions this is not a forever story. Structural supply gaps and midterm politics could force a policy rethink by late 2025.

But for now, domestic steel stocks stand to gain, and this trio is leading the charge.

Read Next:

• US Aluminum Tariffs Risk Supply Chain And Food Security, Industry Insiders Warn

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