Market Overview

Macau Records Weakest Monthly Gaming Revenue Since 2010

Macau Records Weakest Monthly Gaming Revenue Since 2010

According to data released by the Macao Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, gaming revenue in the month of June came in at 15.8 billion patacas, about 8.5 percent lower than June 2015’s number.

The 8.5 percent decline actually beat analysts’ low consensus expectations of a 9.5 percent drop.

Shares of Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ: MPEL), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS), MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) and Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) all opened Friday's session trading flat to slightly up after a weak June.

Still Searching For A Bottom

June marked the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year (Y/Y) negative gaming revenue growth in Macau. Comps began getting a bit easier in June, and Macau has now kept the year-over-year declines in the single digits in four of the past five months.

February 2015 marked the "high point" for gaming revenue declines at -48.6 percent. June's GGR of only 15.8 billion patacas represents the new monthly low for revenue during the current downturn and is the lowest Monthly total Macau has recorded since September 2010. Investors will be watching to see if June ends up being the absolute bottom of the current cycle.

Related Link: Casino Stocks In Focus As Vegas Strip Gaming Win Down Nearly 12%

The Bad News Keeps Coming

Macau has seen a seemingly constant stream of bad news over the past two years:

  • In 2014, the Chinese government announced a crackdown on corruption in Macau.
  • Increased government scrutiny coupled with a weakening Chinese economy led to a major falloff in VIP gamblers.
  • In September 2015, headlines of potential junket embezzlement of up to $258 million dollars had investors worried about even more government regulation down the road.
  • Macau’s new ban on phone betting began on May 9.

In addition, fears surrounding the impact of a potential smoking ban in Macau casinos have also weighed on share prices.

Sluggish Stocks

Shareholders of the four U.S.-listed Macau names are hoping that the worst of the selloff is now behind them. The stocks of the four Macau names are down between 14 and 65 percent in the past two years.

Disclosure: The author is long MPEL.


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