The Case Against: The Today Show

'The Case Against' is a recurring analysis of why a company, person or other business venture is not a good long-term investment. All opinions are the author's and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks, bonds or other financial instruments.

The Today Show may pull in nearly $500 million a year in revenue, but the once untouchable brand has slipped in viewers and relevance. Not only has the show slipped behind rival Good Morning America in the ratings, but it's once polished sheen now seems irreparably tarnished.

And, while the show is in no danger of becoming a financial loser for owner Comcast CMCSA, it may not remain the cash machine it has been for many, many years. Instead, like its evening counterpart, The Tonight Show, it will merely be one of a few successful shows in its time slot, not anything special.

The decline of Today began with the odd decision to put Ann Curry in the co-anchor seat next to Matt Lauer. Curry had done her time in the show's news anchor spot and had been passed over once before, but giving the job to her never made sense.

Though she may have news credentials. Curry always lacked the warmth required of a morning show host. She might have been able to report on deaths in Iraq, but she stumbled when it came to easily flowing from grim news to a cooking segment with Emeril Lagasse. She also never developed a rapport with Lauer and her stiffness in that relationship made the once war and fuzzy show feel like it was being hosted by a couple who had not decided how to tell the kids they are getting a divorce.

Curry's exit, however, may have been even worse than her presence as, though she left with a new job more suited to her skills and a truck full of money, the audience perceived that Lauer pushed her out. Viewers may not have liked her, but once she became a victim, Lauer became the bad guy.

To combat this, NBC made a series of confusing move. First, they made a deal with Ryan Seacrest (new Lauer #1) to do segments for the show. Then, they brought in the likeable Willie Geist from MSNBC as the news guy (new Lauer #2). Finally, and most pathetically, they brought in Carson Daly and installed him in something they dubbed the “Orange Room.”

This sad attempt at relevance is a lot like when newspapers realize they have no young readers so for three days they run pictures of kids with their hats on backwards from the skate park. The Orange Room, a sort of social media hub, feels like when your mom tries to be cool and asks you about Tweeter and FacePlace.

Mostly, the Orange Room segments involve Daly yelling out hip-sounding words while telling us what's trending. “Buzzfeed,” “Lady Gaga,” “and , well, more meaningless noise. Essentially, Daly's job is delivering info that anyone who actually knows what t means can grok from Yahoo's homepage in a few seconds.
The Today Show won't die, but it will decline and, that, coupled with the overall decline of the broadcast networks (and traditional TV models in general) is long-term bad news for shareholders. Today is looking more and more like the old guy at the club whose leather jacket is a little too tight around the middle. He might not go home alone every night, but his batting average won't be anywhere close to what it used to be.

Daniel B. Kline is a Benzinga staff writer and editorial consultant who can be reached at dan(at)notastep(dot)com.