Amid Corn's Surge, Cotton's Plunge Goes Nearly Unnoticed

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Amid Corn's Surge, Cotton's Plunge Goes Nearly Unnoticed Even casual participants in the financial markets know this: It has been nearly impossible to go just a single trading day over the past four weeks (or more) without hearing about corn. The proof is in the pudding. Google Trends shows
search volume for the word "corn" is spiking
. The surge in Internet searches on the agricultural commodity corresponds with a breathtaking
jump in corn futures
. Along those lines, it is not a stretch to say investors that had not heard of the Teucrium Corn Fund
CORN
two or three weeks ago now, at the very least, know CORN exists. These are go-go days for corn, but while the vegetable that is an ingredient in scores of products soars, another commodity has been taken to the woodshed: Cotton. The fabric of our lives is being
held hostage by the worst scenario for any commodity
: Slack demand and rising stockpiles. In fairness, it should be noted the iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Index ETN
BAL
is higher over the past month. The less popular iPath Pure Beta Cotton ETN
CTNN
has absorbed a manageable loss of half a percent over the same time. And the fact that cotton futures
could rally due to an oversold condition
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cannot be ignored, either. That is a potential near-term catalyst that does not solve a longer ranging problem: A slowing global economy. The economy is fragile here in the U.S. and slowing in China. The Eurozone is a well-documented disaster. These factors help explain why cotton futures have plunged nearly 30 percent in the past year. BAL and CTNN's declines have been only marginally better at 21 percent and 25 percent, respectively. BAL and CTNN could see some relief if farmers move away from cotton to plant more corn, soybeans and wheat. In addition to CORN, the Teucrium Soybean Fund
SOYB
and the Teucrium Wheat
WEAT
have set torrid paces in the past month. If farmers shift to those commodities, cotton supplies would decrease, but that only takes care of one part of the problem for BAL and CTNN. The other issue is pensive global consumers. Prudent personal finance dictates that if one is worried about his or her employment situation and how to pay the next car or electric bill, one should be devoting after-tax income to trips to the local Abercrombie & Fitch
ANF
. Translation: In order for BAL to really bounce, consumers the world over really need to start making some new wardrobe additions. Cotton futures are notoriously volatile and that volatility has trickled down to BAL, which is to say if there is a good reason for this ETN to move higher, it will. Highlighting BAL's penchant for volatility is the fact that 16 months ago, the ETN traded over $110. It now resides below $48. The bear case is without the benefit of more quantitative easing and with the specter of a slowing global economy, BAL likely has more downside ahead of it.
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