First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NASDAQ: FKU)

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Bank of England kept rates steady while Swiss National Bank cut its key rate. UK ETFs ticked up, with EWU up 0.66%, FLGB up 0.7%, and FKU up 0.57%. BOE is expected to cut rates in August, while other European central banks have already begun easing.

Interest Rate Decisions: Bank Of England Holds Firm, Swiss National Bank Reduces Further — Will Fed Cut In September?

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	An investigation by the UK&#39;s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) found the Immensa laboratory to have misreported around 39,000 tests as negative when they should have been positive between September 2 and October 12, 2021.


COVID-19 Testing Lab In UK Misreported Several Positive Cases As Negative

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	National Health Service (NHS) nurses will go on strike on December 15 and 20 after the government refused to meet demands for pay rises of 5% above inflation.


Britain Braces For First Nurse Strike In Over 100 Years; They Demand Higher Pay

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UK-related <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38732818/bank-of-england-signals-imminent-rate-cuts-more-than-currently-priced-into-the-market">exchange-traded funds ticked up </a>in Thursday&#8217;s early-morning trading as the Bank of England decided to keep rates steady, while the Swiss National Bank cut its key rate.
iShares MSC United Kingdom ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWU#NYSE">EWU</a>) edged up 0.66% by mid-morning trading on Thursday, while Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLGB#NYSE">FLGB</a>) rose 0.7%.
Meanwhile, First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FKU#NASDAQ">FKU</a>) picked up 0.57% at the time of publication Thursday.
England&#8217;s central bank preserved its key rate at a 16-year high of 5.25%, where it has been since August 2023, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-june-2024.html">reported</a>.
Seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the rate the same, while two members were in favor of cutting it by 25 basis points.
The MPC said inflation had hit the central bank's target and said indicators of "short-term inflation expectations" and wage growth had eased.
It also said it was "very difficult to gauge the evolution of labour market activity" because of uncertainty around estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
Also read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/03/31371213/switzerland-to-the-rescue-swiss-national-bank-finma-ready-to-provide-liquidity-support-for-credit-su">Switzerland To The Rescue: Swiss National Bank, FINMA Ready To Provide Liquidity Support For Credit Suisse</a>
The central bank's decision to hold comes just two weeks out from a general election, in which the state of the economy and proposals for rebooting slow growth have emerged as key points of contention.
Despite speculation that the politically-independent BOE might act more cautiously as a result of the upcoming vote, Governor Andrew Bailey had emphasized that it would remain focused on its own data.
Other central banks in Europe have already begun to ease monetary policy, including the European Bank, Swiss National Bank and Sweden&#8217;s Riksbank in an effort to stimulate economic growth.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve, has traders wondering when its first rate cut will come. Money market pricing suggests a 65% chance of a September cut, according to LSEG data, CNBC reported.
Switzerland's central bank cut its key interest rate<a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/swiss-central-bank-cuts-rate-for-second-time-underlining-european-divergence-f7dc5cad"> </a>on Thursday for the second straight meeting, lowering its key rate from 1.5% to 1.25%, the Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/swiss-central-bank-cuts-rate-for-second-time-underlining-european-divergence-f7dc5cad">reported</a>. The bank previously lowered borrowing costs by the same amount in March, becoming the first major central bank from a developed economy to ease policy since the onset of global inflation in 2021.
"The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter," the SNB said in a statement.
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/03/31379373/bank-stocks-rally-on-too-big-to-fail-narrative-as-credit-suisses-crisis-recedes">Bank Of England Signals Imminent Rate Cuts: &#8216;More Than Currently Priced Into The Market&#8217;</a>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

<ul>
<li>An investigation by the UK&#39;s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) found the Immensa laboratory to have misreported around 39,000 tests as negative when they should have been positive between September 2 and October 12, 2021.</li>
<li>The cause of the mistakes was the incorrect setting of the threshold levels for reporting positive and negative results of PCR samples for COVID-19, UKHSA said in a report after completing an investigation.</li>
<li>The UKHSA said the mistakes could have led to around 55,000 additional infections in areas where the false negatives were reported and may have resulted in the deaths of about 20 people.</li>
<li>Immensa Health Clinic was founded in May 2020 and has been awarded contracts worth &pound;170 million ($203.63 million) to process the results of PCR tests, Reuters&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/mistakes-uk-covid-testing-lab-may-have-led-deaths-20-people-2022-11-29/" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">reported</a>.</li>
<li>&quot;Through this investigation, we have looked carefully at the arrangements in place for overseeing contracts of private labs providing surge testing during this time,&quot; said Richard Gleave, UKHSA director, and the lead investigator.</li>
<li>&quot;There was no single action that NHS Test and Trace could have taken differently to prevent this error from arising in the private laboratory. However, our report sets out clear recommendations to reduce the risk of incidents like this happening again.&quot;</li>
<li>Photo by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>National Health Service (NHS) nurses will go on strike on December 15 and 20 after the government refused to meet demands for pay rises of 5% above inflation.</li>
<li>&quot;Nursing staff have had enough of being taken for granted, enough of low pay and unsafe staffing levels, enough of not being able to give our patients the care they deserve,&quot; Royal College of Nursing (RCN) General Secretary Pat Cullen said.</li>
<li>The RCN announced that nurses would go on strike for the first time in the union&#39;s 106-year history.</li>
<li>British Health Secretary Steve Barclay&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-nurses-stage-first-strikes-dec-15-20-2022-11-25/" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">said</a>&nbsp;the nurses&#39; demands would amount to a 19.2% pay rise costing &pound;10 billion a year and that the government would give them rises of at least 1,400 pounds each this year.</li>
<li>The RCN says experienced nurses are 20% worse off in real terms than in 2010 after a string of below-inflation pay awards and are seeking a pay rise of 5% above retail price index inflation.</li>
<li>Billy Palmer, at the Nuffield Trust health think-tank,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-nurses-prepare-unprecedented-strike-over-pay-2022-11-25/" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">told</a>&nbsp;Reuters that those considering leaving &quot;often cite issues around not having enough staff to do a good job,&quot; but their departure further exacerbates the staffing problem.</li>
<li>Image by&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://pixabay.com/users/sasint-3639875/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=1822458" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">Sasin Tipchai</a>&nbsp;from&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://pixabay.com//?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=1822458" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">Pixabay</a></li>
</ul>

Liz Truss, who succeeded&nbsp;Boris Johnson&nbsp;as the U.K.&#39;s prime minister, resigned just a little over a month after joining office.
Her stepping down brings an end to a controversial reign amid fallout over her ambitious tax cut policy.
Liz Truss has been in office for just 45 days - the shortest tenure of any U.K. prime minister. The second shortest-serving PM was George Canning, who served for 119 days before dying in 1827.
Truss had ripped up the mini-budget leading the financial markets in turmoil and replaced Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor with Conservative leader Jeremy Hunt.&nbsp;
The cost of government borrowing rose, and the pound fell further following her press conference announcing the changes.
In a statement outside Downing Street, Ms. Truss said: &quot;I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability.&quot;
&quot;Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills.&quot; Ms. Truss added that she was elected &quot;with a mandate to change this,&quot; saying: &quot;We delivered on energy bills.&quot;
Truss acknowledged she &quot;cannot deliver the mandate&quot; on which she was elected and that there will be a leadership election &quot;to be completed within the next week.&quot;

Economics

Chaos At Downing Street: Liz Truss Resigns With The Shortest Tenure of Any UK Prime Minister

The Bank of England said it would buy more government bonds to help keep its price stable and prevent investors from selling them, which could put some pension funds at risk of collapse.
Citing a &quot;material risk&quot; to financial stability after the turmoil hit pension firms, the BoE split its program to buy up to &pound;10 billion of British gilts daily to include up to &pound;5 billion of index-linked bonds.
The market turmoil had forced pension funds to sell bonds due to concerns over their solvency, threatening to create a downward spiral in bond prices as more were offloaded.
The Central Bank said Tuesday that despite its earlier rescue efforts, markets witnessed &quot;a further significant repricing of U.K. government debt,&quot; particularly index-linked gilts, which protect investors against rising inflation.
&quot;Dysfunction in this market and the prospect of self-reinforcing &#39;fire sale&#39; dynamics pose a material risk to U.K. financial stability,&quot; the BOE said.
It is the third time the Bank has had to step in since the government&#39;s mini-budget sparked alarm among investors.
The Bank first stepped in on 28 September, when investors began demanding higher interest rates on those bonds and government borrowing costs surged to worrying levels.
Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/boe-adds-index-linked-gilts-to-bond-purchase-program-11665470476?mod=hp_lead_pos1" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">reported</a>&nbsp;that the bond-buying stabilized U.K. bond markets briefly. But the selloff has resumed recently as the BOE&#39;s interventions scale has fallen consistently short of market expectations. By Friday, the BOE had pledged to buy up to &pound;65 billion in long-dated bonds. As of Monday, it had purchased just over &pound;5 billion.

Bonds

Bank of England Steps In Again To Provide Some Cushion To Dysfunctional Government Bond Market

<ul>
<li>The Buckingham Palace in London has&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.royal.uk/statement-buckingham-palace" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">released a statement</a>&nbsp;concerning Queen Elizabeth II.</li>
<li>The palace said&nbsp;doctors are concerned for Her Majesty&rsquo;s health and have recommended she remain under medical supervision.</li>
<li>The members of the royal family&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://apnews.com/article/queen-elizabeth-ii-health-update-b2578aa91c3fef9c5d6ad4a557bf63e4" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">have traveled to Scotland</a>&nbsp;to be with the 96-year-old monarch.</li>
<li>The announcement comes a day after the queen canceled a virtual meeting of her Privy Council on doctors&rsquo; advice.</li>
<li>The queen has been on a summer break at Balmoral, her Scottish home, since July.</li>
<li>&ldquo;The whole country will be deeply concerned by the news from Buckingham Palace this lunchtime,&rdquo; Prime Minister-elect Liz Truss said on Twitter.</li>
<li>The monarch celebrated her diamond jubilee this year, marking seventy years on the throne, becoming the longest reigning British monarch.</li>
</ul>

Buckingham Palace Signals Health Concern For Queen Elizabeth

U.K. inflation accelerated more than expected in July to the highest level in 40 years, intensifying a squeeze on consumers and adding to pressure for action from the government and Bank of England.
The Office for National Statistics said that the&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2022" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% in July</a>&nbsp;from a year earlier after a&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/07/28127146/u-k-inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">9.4% gain the month before</a>.&nbsp;
The reading was higher than expected by the Bank of England and private-sector economists. Economists&#39; forecasts in a Reuters poll for inflation were to rise to 9.8% in July.
Rising food prices contributed the most to the month&#39;s increase, indicating inflationary pressures are spreading beyond energy.
Core inflation -- excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco -- accelerated to 6.2%, increasing from 5.8% in June.
The Bank of England earlier this month raised its key interest rate by 0.5% to 1.75% - its first half-point rise since 1995. Its forecast inflation would peak at 13.3% in October,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-cpi-inflation-rate-rises-101-july-2022-08-17/" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">writes Reuters</a>.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that prices rose 0.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The annual rate of retail price inflation hit 12.3%, its highest since March 1981.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">UK inflation out of control: CPI 10.1% Y/Y, EST. 9.8%. Up 9.4% in June. <a href="https://t.co/G88h3Lw9L4">pic.twitter.com/G88h3Lw9L4</a>
&mdash; Benzinga (@Benzinga) <a href="https://twitter.com/Benzinga/status/1559883909432852480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 17, 2022</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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UK Inflation Hits Double Digit, Highest In 40 Years

Britain faces its biggest rail strike in 30 years. The strike began today, with tens of thousands of workers walking out in a pay and employment dispute,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/biggest-rail-strike-30-years-brings-uk-standstill-2022-06-21/" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">reported Reuters.</a>
This strike could pave the way for more widespread industrial action in the coming months.
What happened:&nbsp;More than 40,000 rail workers scheduled to strike on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday gathered along picket lines from dawn. The London Underground metro was also mostly closed due to a separate strike.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that the industrial action would harm businesses as they continue to recover from the pandemic.
Why It matters: Unions have warned that the rail strikes will kick off a &quot;summer of discontent,&quot; with teachers, doctors, waste disposal employees, and even barristers considering strike action as food and fuel prices continue to rise, pushing inflation near 10%, writes Reuters.
The unions were harming the people they claimed to be helping, stated Johnson.
A YouGov poll conducted earlier this month revealed that public opinion on the strikes was split, with around half of those questioned opposing the action and slightly more than a third supporting it.
Photo via Wikimedia Commons

Britain Comes To Standstill As Biggest Rail Strike In 3 Decades Begins

<ul>
<li>A PwC analysis of the first 50 FTSE 100 companies saw that the 2021 median total remuneration for CEOs jumped 34% year-on-year to &pound;4.1 million,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1fd0a151-cde9-4e14-b359-310ba23e2e5c" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">the Financial Times reports</a>.</li>
<li>A significant hike in annual bonuses drove the growth as some sectors like banks, broader financial services, and the construction industry saw a post-Covid boom.&nbsp;</li>
<li>PwC saw the jump reflect greater investor scrutiny of targets set in 2022.</li>
<li>The median total remuneration for FTSE 100 CEOs reached &pound;4.2 million in 2019 during the pre-pandemic time.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The average 2021 executive bonus was 82% of the maximum payout, beating 44% in 2020 and 66% in 2019.</li>
<li>PwC found an average outcome of 46% of the maximum long-term incentive plan in 2021, compared with 67% pre-Covid.</li>
<li>Only 17% of FTSE 100 companies had frozen their CEO salaries for 2022, compared with 47% in 2021.</li>
<li>The analysis coincided with the AGM season, as investors scrutinize executive remuneration to ensure that companies taking furlough money or cutting dividends do not pay bonuses.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Additionally, Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine imposes a severe stagflationary shock, and the Covid resurgence in China once again jeopardizes global supply chains.</li>
<li>PwC saw that 86% of companies used ESG measures for 2022 plans, up from 64% in 2021, reflecting regulatory pressure.</li>
<li>Photo via Pixabay</li>
</ul>

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FTSE 100 CEO Remuneration Reaches To Pre-Pandemic Levels, PwC Analysis Shows: FT

The Brexit blowback is far from over. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts for the next couple of years, citing uncertainty regarding the U.K.&rsquo;s departure from the European Union and its impact on the global economy.

	The new estimate implies 3.1 percent growth rate for 2016 and a 3.4 percent rate for 2017, down from a previous forecast of 3.2 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

	&quot;The Brexit vote implies a substantial increase in economic, political, and institutional uncertainty, which is projected to have negative macroeconomic consequences, especially in advanced European economies,&quot; the IMF&#39;s <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/02/">World Economic Outlook Update said</a>.

	As one could expect, the British economy will be hit the hardest. The IMF now models 1.7 percent growth for this year, and 1.3 percent for next year, down from April&rsquo;s forecast of 1.9 percent and 2.2 percent, correspondingly.

	For the Euro area, the IMF boosted its forecast by 0.1 point this year, to 1.6 percent, but cut its 2017 estimate by 0.2 point, to 1.4 percent.

	&quot;Had it not been for Brexit, the IMF was prepared to leave its outlook for this year broadly unchanged as better-than-expected euro area performance offset disappointing U.S. first-quarter growth. The IMF also had been prepared to raise its outlook for 2017 slightly, by 0.1 percentage point, on the back of improved performance in a few big emerging markets, in particular Brazil and Russia,&quot; <a href="http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/07/18/18/11/NA07192016%20IMF%20Cuts%20Global%20Growth%20Forecasts%20on%20Brexit%20Warns%20of%20Risks%20to%20Outlook">the IMF said</a>.

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IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Citing Brexit Blowback

Defying the latest predictions and warnings, the U.K. has decided to leave the European Union, and the implications of such a decision will be huge, impacting almost every aspect of Brits&rsquo; lives, including their beloved football &mash; or "soccer" to those west of the pond!
Last week, Richard Scudamore, the executive chairman of the Premier League &mdash; the British football league &mdash; was on <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03ynrkk">BBC Radio 5 Live</a>, expanding why the League (unofficially) supported the &ldquo;Stay&rdquo; stance. According to Scudamore, being open to the world is critical to the success of the Premier League.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/fintech/16/06/8150477/how-the-brexit-will-affect-fintech-on-a-global-scale">How The Brexit Will Affect Fintech On A Global Scale</a></bzrelatedlink>
&ldquo;We do business around the world, we trade with the world,&rdquo; he explained. So, leaving the EU &ldquo;doesn&#39;t seem to sit very well when you travel the world like we do being welcomed because of the fact that we are open for business, open for discussion, and open for cooperation,&rdquo; he concluded.
<h3>The PL After The Brexit</h3>
Following the announcement that the &ldquo;Leave&rdquo; option had prevailed in the referendum, the Premier League issued a statement on Friday. While the organization assured that the League would continue to be largely successful and internationally appealing, they pointed out the &ldquo;uncertain nature of what the political and regulatory landscape might by following the &lsquo;Leave&rsquo; vote.&rdquo;
&ldquo;There is little point in second guessing the implications until there is greater clarity. Clearly, we will work with the government and other bodies whatever the outcome of any process,&rdquo; the League assured.
However, one thing is for sure: The way in which players are traded and taken to the U.K. will see some major changes. For instance, European ballers wanted on the Premier League will need a work permit in order to play, just like if they came from any other place on earth. Now, the thing is, getting a visa to work as a football player in the U.K. is not easy.
&ldquo;For example a non-EU player from a nation ranked inside FIFA&rsquo;s top 10 has to have played at least 30 percent of national team games in the two years prior to applying for a work permit to be able to play professionally in the UK. The lower ranked his national team, the higher percentage of games he has to play,&rdquo; an <a href="http://soccer.nbcsports.com/2016/06/24/what-does-uks-exit-from-eu-mean-for-the-premier-league/">NBC Sports</a> article explicated. This means that players like N&#39;Golo Kante, Dimitri Payet and Anthony Martial, would not be able to play in the Premier League under new regulations, even in spite of their EU passports &mdash; which enabled them to play when the U.K. was still a part of the Union.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8150254/heres-how-the-brexit-could-impact-the-u-s-housing-market">Here's How The Brexit Could Impact The U.S. Housing Market</a></bzrelatedlink>
&quot;We&#39;re talking about half of the Premier League needing work permits,&rdquo; football agent Rachel Anderson stated recently. &quot;The short-term impact would be huge but you could argue it will help in the long term as it could force clubs to concentrate on home-grown talent,&rdquo; she continued.
Agreeing with Anderson, agent Simon Bayliff added, &quot;The downside could be the value of the Premier League decreasing, as its attraction is the collection of foreign stars across many clubs.&rdquo;
<h3>The Problem In Numbers</h3>
The <a href="http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/35919247">BBC</a> has calculated that, among the more than 400 EU players registered in the Premier League, up to 100 do not meet the requisites for a work permit, and thus, could become ineligible to play in the U.K. Furthermore, this figure rises to more than 430 if the English Championship and Scottish Championship are taken into account.
Of course, rules and parameters for work permits could change, or maybe, teams could start hiring only eligible players, becoming more attractive to foreign investors. Only time will tell; but, right now, fans are certainly worried.
	Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

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Due To Brexit, Up To 100 Premier League Players Could Be Ineligible Next Season

Brexit, the hottest speculative topic of the week now that Cleveland beat Golden State, is expected to resolve after U.K. polling stations close at 5 p.m. Eastern Time Thursday. The final result should be known after all the votes are tallied by Friday morning.
In order to predict the probability of a Brexit effectively, polls and betting markets tend to be among the most accurate resources publicized.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8133904/linkedin-users-are-scared-of-a-possible-brexit">LinkedIn Users Are Scared Of A Possible Brexit</a></bzrelatedlink>
<h3>
	Polls</h3>

	Polls have been split over June, however there seems to be a trend where larger sample sizes indicate a larger leave vote. The following polls are from Financial Times&rsquo; <a href="https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/">Poll Tracker</a>:
Smaller Polls (Notable Mid-June Polls &lt;1,200 sample size):
<ul>
<li>
		6/19: ORB 800 sample: 46 percent leave, 53 percent remain</li>
<li>
		6/19: Survation 1,004 sample: 42 percent leave, 45 percent remain</li>
<li>
		6/15: Survation 1,104 sample: 45 percent leave, 42 percent remain</li>
<li>
		6/15: Survation 1,064 sample: 43 percent leave, 46 percent remain</li>
</ul>
Larger Polls (Larger Polls In Mid-June):
<ul>
<li>
		6/19: Yougov 1,652 sample: 44 percent leave, 42 percent remain</li>
<li>
		6/17: Yougov 1,694 sample: 44 percent leave, 42 percent remain</li>
<li>
		6/17: Opinion 2,006 sample: 44 percent leave, 44 percent remain</li>
<li>
		6/17: YouGov 1,734 sample: 43 percent leave, 44 percent remain</li>
</ul>
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/16/06/8134027/george-soros-on-brexit-the-only-winners-will-be-speculators">George Soros On Brexit: The Only Winners Will Be Speculators</a></bzrelatedlink>
The fact that two out of the latest three polls are smaller polls could cause inaccurate public predictions on betting markets if speculators don&rsquo;t take into consideration the threat of inaccuracy due to smaller sample size. Another factor to take into consideration is YouGov&rsquo;s consistency in a field of great discrepancies between polls could be displaying YouGov&rsquo;s superior accuracy in its polling.
<h3>Prediction Markets</h3>
Additionally, an Investor can gain valuable insights from public betting markets. Results from <a href="https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data">Predictit.com</a>, a prominent political betting website in the United States are shown below.
At the time of writing, speculators believed there was a 25 percent probability of Brexit by year-end 2016 and the actual voting brackets are speculated as followed:
<img alt="" src="/files/u99985/brexit_prices.png" style="width: 450px; height: 388px;" />
As seen above, prediction markets were currently deviating from polling numbers. Perhaps speculators believe Jo Cox&rsquo;s death and Soros&rsquo; <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/16/06/8134027/george-soros-on-brexit-the-only-winners-will-be-speculators">warning </a>of &ldquo;Brexit Black Friday&rdquo; have not been fully reflected in polls.
Find the more detailed Brexit market data <a href="https://www.predictit.org/Market/2229/What-will-the-voting-margin-be-in-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU">here</a>.

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Your Resources To Predict Brexit: Polling And Betting Markets Explained

Presenting a finance ministry report published Monday, UK&rsquo;s Prime Minister David Cameron warned that leaving the European Union would be like pushing the self-destruct button on Britain&rsquo;s economy, a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-economy-idUSKCN0YD0XU">Reuters</a> article reported.
A Brexit (as the media has dubbed the potential event) would lead to a recession, a drop in the pound (of 12 to 15 percent), a sharp spike in inflation and roughly half a million jobs lost, the research note pointed out. As per the report, the economy could shrink by up to 6 percent over the two years following a potential Brexit. &ldquo;It would be a DIY recession,&rdquo; Cameron recently said in a speech.
As readers can deduce from Cameron&rsquo;s words, the head of state, and his finance minister George Osborne, are clearly against a Brexit, and captaining against it, ahead of the June 23 referendum.
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/16/05/8019838/lots-of-talk-about-the-brexit-but-what-do-traders-think">Lots Of Talk About The Brexit, But What Do Traders Think?</a></bzrelatedlink>
Leaving the EU would put Britain&rsquo;s recovery from the last financial crisis in jeopardy, the prime minister continued. In fact, he compared such an action to &ldquo;surviving a fall and then running straight back to the cliff edge.&rdquo;
To Cameron&rsquo;s relief, however, most recent polls have shown a slight preference toward an &ldquo;In&rdquo; vote, although the margin is too small to draw conclusions yet, researchers have cautioned.
On the other side of the discussion, supporters of the Brexit have argued that the Treasury&rsquo;s reports have been consistently flawed and biased, &ldquo;to scare the pants off the British people because they can&#39;t find anything positive to say about the European Union,&rdquo; as per Nigel Lawson&rsquo;s words.
Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

UK's Cameron: Leaving The EU Would Be 'A DIY Recession' For The Country

First Trust Dorsey Wright International Focus 5 ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ifv#NASDAQ">IFV</a>) has received arguably the least amount of fanfare among the most successful ETFS. Just 10 months after coming to market, the First Trust Dorsey Wright International Focus 5 ETF is now home to $641.1 million in assets under management.

	Judging by flows data, IFV got off to a slow start as essentially all of the ETF&#39;s current assets under management tally has flowed into the fund this year. Of course, it is worth noting IFV enjoys a big marketing advantage. It is the international equivalent of the wildly popular First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fv#NASDAQ">FV</a>). FV does not turn two until March and it already has over $4.2 billion in assets.

	IFV applies the methodology used by FV at the international level. Meaning IFV holds five First Trust single-country or regional funds displaying favorable momentum characteristics. IFV&#39;s current lineup includes the First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fku#NYSE">FKU</a>), First Trust Switzerland AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fsz#NYSE">FSZ</a>) and the First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fgm#NYSE">FGM</a>).

	The drawback with momentum strategies, including those applied within ETFs, is that while they shine during bull markets, they are often swiftly rejected during market declines.

	&ldquo;Momentum can work really well for a period of time, typically during a bull market. But when the market suddenly turns, momentum strategies tend to be overweight in areas that fall the fastest. So, net-net, over a full market cycle, any outperformance during the bull market can get wiped out during a market decline. For example, in 2011, when the MSCI EAFE Index was down about 12%, a similar Dorsey Wright international-equity ETF declined 18%,&rdquo; <a href="http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=716962">according to Morningstar</a>.

	To be fair, IFV is up nearly 3 percent over the past year while the MSCI EAFE Index is higher by just 0.4 percent. However, FV can teach investors some lessons about what to expect with IFV when the latter&#39;s holdings fall out of favor.

	For example, FV languished almost immediately out of the gate because soon after that ETF debuted, 2014&#39;s brief bear market for biotechnology and Internet stocks struck. And although FV&#39;s year-to-date performance looks good, the ETF is off almost 11 percent over the past 90 days, a period that includes <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/15/08/5781564/a-bad-sign-for-biotech-bulls">significant retrenchment </a>in biotech stocks.

	Relative strength analysis of IFV&#39;s holdings is conducted weekly, so it is possible that if country- or region-specific issues come to pass, IFV can quickly ditch a problem ETF and then rebalance to equal weight at quarter end.

	&ldquo;This strategy is based on the observation that areas of the market that are currently outperforming tend to continue to outperform. So far, the fund&#39;s strategy is working. Over the last year, it outperformed its market-cap-weighted benchmark by about 500 basis points,&rdquo; notes Morningstar.

	However, the research firm also notes the problem with an ETF like IFV is that ordinary investors are likely to buy high and sell low.

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This ETF Will Work...Until It Doesn't

Big winners (up at least 5%): None.

	Big losers (down at least 5%): C-Tracks Citi Volatility Index TR ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cvol#NYSE">CVOL</a>), UBS E-TRACS S&amp;P 500 Gold Hedged Idx ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/spgh#NYSE">SPGH</a>), VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tvix#NYSE">TVIX</a>) and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uvxy#NYSE">UVXY</a>).

	Unusual volume (at least 5X ADV): iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ech#NYSE">ECH</a>), WisdomTree Global ex-US Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dnl#NYSE">DNL</a>), First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fku#NYSE">FKU</a>), iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fill#NYSE">FILL</a>), PowerShares DB Commodity Double Long ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dyy#NYSE">DYY</a>) and the iShares S&amp;P Global Healthcare ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ixj#NYSE">IXJ</a>).

	Must reads of the day

	Water <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1687482-face-off-two-water-resource-etfs-to-profit-from-the-worldwide-demand-for-clean-water?source=feed">ETFs do battle</a>.

	Morningstar <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1688132-bond-convertible-bond-a-secret-agent-for-your-equity-allocation">comes to the CWB party</a>. That is nearly two months after we <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/07/3756954/bond-etfs-to-cope-with-rising-interest-rates">rang the bell on that ETF</a>.

	Fabian Capital Management on how <a href="http://fabiancm.com/strengthen-portfolio-core/">to boost your core</a>. Your portfolio core that is, not your abs.

	Jeff Gundlach likes <a href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/10/jeff-gundlach-to-answer-the-question-what-if-on-tuesday-afternoon/">China, Russia and gold miners</a>. India, not so much.

	Nifty <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/09/3905680/three-diversified-em-etfs-your-broker-forgot-to-mention">emerging markets ETFs</a> to consider before it's too late.

	High <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/09/3903777/juiced-beta-with-this-emerging-markets-etf">beta with this ETF?</a>. Maybe, maybe not, but it is performing well.

	Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/ETFProfessor1">@ETFProfessor1</a>.

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Benzinga's Mandatory ETF Reading for September 11, 2013

Shares of the iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewu#NYSE">EWU</a>) are off 0.42 percent and trading near the lows of the day after Standard &amp; Poor's revised its outlook on the country's AAA credit rating to negative. Standard &amp; Poor's joins rival ratings agencies Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service in affirming the U.K.'s AAA rating, but revising the outlook on that rating to negative.

S&amp;P's revised outlook implies there is a one-in-three chance the ratings agency could lower the U.K.'s credit rating in the next two years if the economic situation there worsens. 

Earlier Thursday, EWU traded as high as $18.03, just nine cents below its 52-week high. The $1.44 billion ETF has gained nearly five percent in the past month.

Nearly two months ago, <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/10/3027416/france-etf-slides-after-s-p-cuts-banks">the iShares MSCI France Index Fund (NYSE: </a><a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewq#NYSE">EWQ</a>) after S&amp;P stripped France of the prestigious AAA credit rating. 

EWU is home to 107 stocks. The ETF's top-10 holdings include HSBC (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hbc#NYSE">HBC</a>), BP (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bp#NYSE">BP</a>), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) and BHP Billiton (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bhp#NYSE">BHP</a>).

Other U.K. ETFs are mixed on the S&amp;P news. The First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fku#NYSE">FKU</a>) is trading modestly higher while the iShares MSCI United Kingdom Small Cap Index Fund (BATS: EWUS) is flat.

For more on credit downgrades, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/10/3027416/france-etf-slides-after-s-p-cuts-banks">here</a>.

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U.K. ETF Loses Steam After S&P Revises Credit Outlook

Exchange traded funds focusing on global markets, developed and emerging markets, often share something in common with their U.S. broad market and sector products. That being a dependence on cap-weighting methodology or the allocation of the largest stocks by market value at the top of the fund and the smallest names at the bottom.

This scenario is seen time and time again with ETFs ranging from the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewz#NYSE">EWZ</a>) to the SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/feu#NYSE">FEU</a>). EWZ is dominated by Brazilian large-caps such as Petrobras (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pbr#NYSE">PBR</a>) and Vale (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vale#NYSE">VALE</a>) while familiar names such as Nestle (OTCBB: NSRGY), BP (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bp#NYSE">BP</a>) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) dot FEU's top-10 holdings.

Arguably the primary risk with cap-weighting methodology is that in the wrong environment or when particular stocks fall out of favor, an ETF's heavy exposure to a small amount of stocks diminishes one of the major reasons for owning ETFs in the first place. That reason being diversification.

First Trust, the Illinois-based ETF sponsor behind the AlphaDEX suite of funds, has shown a different approach to <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/10/2971334/alphadex-etfs-do-things-differently-with-stellar-results">sector funds</a> not only provides with more choices, it can generate superior returns. The same can be said when it comes to global funds.

"The largest mega-caps don't outperform over time," said First Trust ETF Strategist and Senior Vice President Ryan Issakainen in an interview with Benzinga from the Morningstar ETF Conference in Chicago that the AlphaDEX funds. "The law of large numbers says it can't happen."

The AlphaDEX funds do not eschew the largest, most familiar stocks. Rather, ETFs such as the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxn#NYSE">FXN</a>) allocate less weight to stocks with the largest market values. In the example of FXN, Chevron (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cvx#NYSE">CVX</a>) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xom#NYSE">XOM</a>) combine for less than five percent of that fund's weight. That compares with those two stocks representing almost 37 percent of the Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vde#NYSE">VDE</a>). 

What is important to note is that AlphaDEX sector funds have shown a tendency to outperform traditionally weighted ETFs. That provides the impetus for probing the performance of AlphaDEX country and global funds against larger ETFs.

"The same applies to individual countries," Issakainen said. "Look at Brazil. It is very concentrated in the largest stocks. If Petrobras is the best performer we're (First Trust) going to have a hard time outperforming, but generally, that is not the case."

The example of Brazil is relevant. The struggles of Petrobras, Brazil's state-run oil giant, have plagued the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund this year. That ETF is off 5.4 percent year-to-date. Two different Petrobras securities account for over 17 percent of EWZ's weight. On the other hand, the First Trust Brazil AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fbz#NYSE">FBZ</a>) allocates less than 3.2 percent of its weight to Petrobras and that fund is slightly positive on the year. FBZ debuted in April 2011 and has attracted $5.7 million in AUM.

Brazil is not the only example. The First Trust China AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fca#NYSE">FCA</a>) has outperformed the SPDR S&amp;P China ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gxc#NYSE">GXC</a>) by nearly 100 basis points this year. The First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fku#NYSE">FKU</a>) has topped the iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewu#NYSE">EWU</a>).

Even with those superlatives, the AlphaDEX country funds have yet to attract assets on part with direct rivals or the AlphaDEX sector funds. FKU has almost $6.5 million in AUM after debuting in February. FCA has just $3.1 million in AUM after launching in April 2011. 

Issakainen notes that many of the AlphaDEX country funds currently have AUM totals that resemble where the sector funds were at similar points in their life spans. Today, all nine of the AlphaDEX sector funds have over $100 million in AUM.

"Our approach is unique,"Issakainen said. "We have a long-term business we're buildings and don't launch products hap-hazardly." 

First Trust, which has never closed an ETF, now issues 39 AlphaDEX ETFs.

For more on AlphaDEX ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/12/10/2971334/alphadex-etfs-do-things-differently-with-stellar-results">here</a>.

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