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The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of silver.

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To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Credibility At Stake - Wall Street Positioned For 50 BPS Cut And Highly Dovish Comments

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Biggest Even Microsoft Buyback, New Retail Sales Go Against Prevailing Wisdom, Trump Crypto Project

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Silver Is The New AI Play – Trader Magnet Is Much Higher, Fed Week

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Gold and silver are trading higher after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 bps.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-18_08h25_17.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Credibility At Stake</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fed-day-rate-cut-wall-street-positioning-spy-mc-09182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of  SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is near the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally has been on low volume.&nbsp; This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI has just entered the overbought zone.&nbsp; This indicates that the stock market can go either way.</li>
<li>The chart shows that if the stock market does not break out and turns down from here, it will be tracing a triple top.&nbsp; A triple top is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET today and will be followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
<li>Understanding Wall Street positioning can give investors a big edge.&nbsp; Wall Street is positioned for a 50 bps cut and highly dovish comments.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Further in The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify very dovish commentary.&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed complies with the momo crowd's demands, the Fed's credibility will be hurt in the long run.&nbsp; There may be unintended consequences.&nbsp; One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.&nbsp; The other potential unintended consequence may be an unhealthy drop in the dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, S&amp;P 500 at 6000 is a magnet for traders.</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, the momo crowd will aggressively buy.&nbsp; However, it is not clear how smart money will react.&nbsp; There is a fair probability of smart money taking advantage of the strength to sell.</li>
<li>If the Fed cuts by 25 basis points, then the market reaction will depend on commentary and the dot plot.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed cuts by 25 bps and the commentary is not dovish, there is a downside risk to the stock market.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors need to be very mindful that the Fed is about to cut interest rates at a time when the stock market is near its all time high, house prices are near all time highs, and the economy is strong.&nbsp; Historically, the Fed cuts interest rates when the economy is weak or in recession, house prices are falling, and the stock market is weak.&nbsp; By aggressively cutting interest rates now accompanied by highly dovish commentary, the Fed risks its long term credibility.&nbsp; &nbsp; Highly dovish action now also has the potential to start rampant speculation in stocks, housing, and cryptos.</li>
<li>A 50 bps cut and highly dovish commentary will be helpful for a Harris election.&nbsp; The Fed will never admit it, but there is a school of thought that the Fed wants to help Harris win the election.&nbsp; The reason is that Trump has already said he will not reappoint Powell.&nbsp; Further, Trump has said that he will interfere with the Fed.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Housing Starts</h3>
Housing starts came at 1356K vs. 1320K consensus.
Building permits came at 1475K vs. 1415K consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, activity among builders is increasing as they anticipate falling interest rates will let loose pent up demand.&nbsp; This will increase economic activity, which in turn is good for the stock market.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying in anticipation of a 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; Bullish crypto gurus are hopeful that a 50 bps cut will take bitcoin to a new high.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-17_08h24_10.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Against Prevailing Wisdom</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-microsoft-buyback-trump-crypto-plan-msft-mc-09172024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after touching the low band of the support zone, MSFT stock has moved up in a straight line.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move up in the early trade on three announcements:
<ul>
<li>Microsoft is announcing a new $60B stock buyback program.&nbsp; This matches the largest buyback program ever from Microsoft.</li>
<li>Microsoft is increasing the dividend by 10%.</li>
<li>Microsoft is introducing more AI features in Office 365 and a new collaborative tool named Copilot Pages.&nbsp; This new tool allows users to collaborate and edit data taken from Copilot on a single page. The company is also introducing a new agent builder allowing users to build AI powered agents.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Microsoft is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. The Arora Report has just issued a new buy zone.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing the news from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) as return to normalcy after the pandemic – Amazon will require workers to be at the office five days a week.</li>
<li>The stock market is running as Wall Street positions for a 50 bps rate cut. 50 bps rate cut has now become the prevailing wisdom.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the data just released is very important because it is the last piece of economic data that the FOMC is going to see before making its rate decision tomorrow.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the just released retail sales data does not support a 50 bps cut. &nbsp;Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.1% vs. -0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Prior retail sales were revised to 1.1% from 1.0%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in AMZN, MSFT, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Trump has released details of his crypto project. The project is called World Liberty Financial.  63% of the coins will be bought by the public, 20% will be owned by the founding team, and 17% will be for user rewards.
The release of Trump's crypto project details is bringing in buying in all cryptos, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-16_08h12_24.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Silver Is The New AI Play</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-silver-new-ai-play-slv-mc-09162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart is a monthly chart to give you the long term perspective.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, silver has the potential to become an AI play.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Silver is extensively used in electronics that go into AI data centers.</li>
<li>AI data centers are power hungry.&nbsp; Some data centers are being built next to huge solar farms.&nbsp; Silver is used in solar cells.&nbsp; First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) is the leader in utility scale solar farms.&nbsp; As full disclosure, First Solar is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Silver also moves with gold.&nbsp; We have previously shared with readers that gold has hit a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that silver is far from a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows the resistance zone.&nbsp; If the resistance zone is broken, silver can go much higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trader magnet for silver.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that silver is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought commodities tend to pullback.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street positioning in silver is very low.&nbsp; This can lead to an explosive up move once the move starts going.&nbsp; Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Investors who learn Wall Street mechanics gain important edges.&nbsp; It is difficult to learn the nuances of Wall Street mechanics because Wall Street professionals keep these nuances close to the chest due to their very high value.&nbsp; </li>
<li>The move in silver will come down to three factors:
<ul>
<li>If the Fed lowers rates by 25 bps or 50 bps</li>
<li>How gold reacts to the Fed</li>
<li>Does a short squeeze start in silver? &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, silver is prone to short squeezes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The move in silver in 2021 was the result of silver becoming a meme crowd favorite and the resulting short squeeze.</li>
<li>The Arora Report gold and silver ratings are used across the globe by individual investors, hedge funds, institutions, bullion dealers, and jewelers.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that The Arora Report gave a back up the truck and buy silver signal when silver was in the $17 range. The Arora Report gave a sell signal on silver hours before silver peaked.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Not only that, right at the peak around $50, The Arora Report gave a signal to short sell signal and gave a target for silver to fall to $34 in a matter of weeks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Silver ETF SLV is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Last week a big weekly reversal occurred in S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; Last week was one of the best weeks.&nbsp; The prior week was one of the worst weeks.&nbsp; Since 1957, there have been 10 such reversals when the stock market was near a high.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 has been higher an average of 5.2% over the next three months 90% of the time.</li>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) is falling today after Ming-Chi Kuo said that demand for the iPhone 16 is lower than expected.&nbsp; In the past, analysis from Ming-Chi Kuo has almost always proven spot on.</li>
<li>This is a Fed week.&nbsp; FOMC will announce its decision at 2pm ET on Wednesday.</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is buying, but some selling is coming in tech stocks on Ming-Chi Kuo's report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing light selling.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-13_08h58_01.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Running On 50 bps Rumor</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-gold-new-high-50-bps-cut-gld-mc-09132024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when gold broke out back in March.</li>
<li>The chart shows a new breakout in gold.&nbsp; Gold is hitting an all time high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout is on higher volume.&nbsp; This shows conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that gold is approaching the overbought level but is not yet there.</li>
<li>The chart shows the support zone.&nbsp; How gold reacts if it pulls back into the support zone will be a tell.</li>
<li>Long time readers of The Arora Report have very large gains in gold.&nbsp; The Arora Report's track record on gold is unmatched.&nbsp; The Arora Report gave a signal to back up the truck and buy gold when gold was in the $600 range.&nbsp; When gold reached $1904 in 2011, The Arora Report gave a signal to sell half of gold holdings and put a stop on the remaining gold at $1757.&nbsp; Gold topped out on the same day that The Arora Report gave a sell signal and fell to about $1000.&nbsp; During the fall in gold, readers of The Arora Report made a lot of money by short selling gold.&nbsp; The Arora Report signals caught the bottom in gold and have since been mostly bullish.</li>
<li>Due to positioning, gold can go much higher. &nbsp;Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Learning about Wall Street's mechanics gives investors several big edges.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, gold ETF GLD is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) and gold miner Newmont Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) are in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the latest breakout in gold is due to a rumor of a 50 bps interest rate cut taking hold.&nbsp; If the Fed does not cut by 50 basis points, there may be a pullback in gold.&nbsp; A pullback will be a buying opportunity.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The same 50 bps cut rumor drove stocks, especially AI stocks, higher yesterday.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Among earnings of note, Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) earnings were below whisper numbers as it is taking longer for Adobe's AI products to gain traction compared to expectations in the market.&nbsp; Also of note are earnings from RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>), the high end home furnishing company. RH earnings show that the consumer at the high end is resilient and spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and negative in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is GLD.  The most popular ETF for silver is SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

News

ETFs

ADBE

Gold Breaks To A New High And Can Go Much Higher, Stocks And Gold Running On 50 BPS Cut

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-12_08h30_57.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Human-Like Reasoning AI Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ppi-openai-strawberry-nvda-mc-09122024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that last week NVDA stock touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA was oversold when it touched the top band of the support zone.&nbsp; Oversold stocks tend to bounce.&nbsp; The chart shows this is exactly what was happening until yesterday.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In the early trade, the momo crowd is ignoring the data and aggressively buying the slight dip in AI stocks.&nbsp; The buying in AI stocks is due to front running a speech by Nvidia&#8217;s Jensen Huang.&nbsp; The buying is especially aggressive in Nvidia (NVDA).
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>When Jensen Huang did not say anything new to run up NVDA stock, NVDA stock pulled back.&nbsp; After NVDA stock pulled back, a new momo guru narrative started taking hold.&nbsp; We wrote yesterday in a post in ZYX Buy and ZYX Allocation:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">This afternoon, the momo crowd is again extremely aggressively buying semiconductor stocks as momo gurus&#8217; new narrative takes hold.&nbsp; Momo gurus have all but anointed Harris as the next president after last night&#8217;s debate performance.&nbsp; Momo gurus&#8217; new narrative is that Harris will not be harsh on China like Trump, and there will be no tariffs.&nbsp; This will provide an opportunity for semiconductor companies to sell more semiconductors to China.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>We also wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In The Arora Report analysis, there are two major problems with the new momo guru narrative:
<ul>
<li>It is premature to anoint Harris as the next president.</li>
<li>Even if Harris is elected president, she is not going to give away AI technology to China.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>As NVDA stock started moving up, analysts started reminding investors of the regurgitation of high demand from Huang's speech and that Blackwell is coming.&nbsp; This brought in additional buying.</li>
<li>The chart shows that when NVDA stock broke above the mini support zone (previously mini resistance zone).</li>
<li>As NVDA stock broke above the top band of the mini support zone, technical analysts started declaring the correction in NVDA over.&nbsp; This brought in extremely aggressive buying in NVDA and other AI stocks going into the close.</li>
<li>In the early trade prior to the release of PPI data, buying in NVDA and other AI stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Arm Holdings PLC &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) was very aggressive.</li>
<li>After release of PPI data, some selling is coming in to take advantage of the strength.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with you that CPI was hotter than expected.&nbsp; This morning Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, after hotter PPI data, it will be safer for the Fed to not cut rates in September and wait for more data before cutting rates in October.&nbsp; Further, in The Arora Report analysis, the Fed should definitely not cut interest rates by 50 bps.&nbsp; Hotter inflation data is a negative for the stock market.&nbsp; However, right now, the momo crowd is oblivious and aggressively buying stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>New AI developments are exciting, but investors need to do a 360 degree analysis.</li>
<li>Jobless claims came at 230K vs. 229K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.&nbsp; Jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">ten categories</a>.&nbsp; In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-3/">click here</a> to see how this is achieved.&nbsp; One of the reasons behind The Arora Report's unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.&nbsp; Most models on Wall Street are static.&nbsp; They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.</li>
<li>Adding to the excitement this morning is that OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is about to release a new AI model called Strawberry.&nbsp; Strawberry is capable of some human-like reasoning.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>OpenAI's valuation has now vaulted to $150B.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This is inline with the consensus.
The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe has now widened, putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was seeing buying with tech stocks prior to the release of PPI data.&nbsp; However, after the release of PPI data, selling has come into bitcoin.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AMAT

AVGO

Human-Like Reasoning 'Strawberry' Ahead, Aggressive Nvidia Buying, Hotter Inflation Data

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-11_08h46_43.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Core CPI</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-hotter-cpi-carry-trade-concerns-spy-mc-09112024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows a slight pullback in the stock market after the release of CPI this morning.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has made a double top in the resistance zone.&nbsp; In the short term, this is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is consolidating between the support zone and resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market has bounced from being very oversold and is now situated such that it can go either way.</li>
<li>Core inflation data at the consumer level came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In theory, if the Fed was truly objective, the Fed would wait and not cut interest rates in September due to hotter core inflation.</li>
<li>The market consensus is a 50 bps cut in September.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, based on the CPI data, at a minimum the Fed should not cut by 50 basis points in September and certainly no more than 25 basis points.&nbsp; Having said that, we have seen it again and again, that the Fed decides what it wants to do first and then tries to justify it as opposed to letting the data shape the decision.&nbsp; As we have written before, Powell is itching to cut rates. Here, the Fed has a ready excuse to cut rates by citing its double mandate – maximum employment and price stability.&nbsp; Since the labor market is weakening, the Fed may decide to ignore the price stability part of its mandate and justify a rate cut based on labor.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, what the Fed does has major implications for the stock market, especially AI stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Of note is that the yields on long bonds are rising after the release of CPI data.&nbsp; Over the last couple of days, the momo crowd has aggressively been buying bond futures on leverage.&nbsp; These highly leveraged positions are losing money this morning.&nbsp; Unless bonds recover, there may be a negative impact on the stock market.</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is ignoring the data and aggressively buying the slight dip in AI stocks.&nbsp; The buying in AI stocks is due to front running a speech by Nvidia's Jensen Huang.&nbsp; The buying is especially aggressive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).</li>
<li>The yen rallied on comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) official Junko Nakagawa.&nbsp; As the yen rallies, there is more concern about the carry trade.&nbsp; The most popular carry trade has been borrowing funds in Japan to invest in AI stocks in the U.S.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the rise in the yen may stop, and the yen may even weaken as investors digest the new CPI data.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Sentiment is very positive.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was sold after the presidential debate on Harris doing well.&nbsp; Bitcoin bulls are hoping for a Trump win as Trump has closely aligned himself with bitcoin.&nbsp; Large amounts of money from crypto whales appear to be flowing into Trump's campaign.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Hotter Core CPI Upsets Stock Market Bulls' Hopium, Buying Ahead Of Nvidia's Jensen Huang Speech

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-10_07h59_51.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Major Negative Pattern Developing</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-semiconductors-apple-loses-fight-smh-mc-09102024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>A large number of stocks benefiting from artificial intelligence are semiconductor stocks.&nbsp; Examples are NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), Arm Holdings PLC &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), and Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>).</li>
<li>The chart shows that a heads and shoulders pattern is developing in semiconductor ETF SMH.&nbsp; The chart shows the left shoulder, the head, and the developing right shoulder.</li>
<li>The chart shows the neckline.</li>
<li>The pattern will be complete only if the neckline is broken.&nbsp; If the neckline is not broken, the developing pattern will be negated.</li>
<li>The foregoing is a heads up for those who are buying AI and semiconductor stocks and ETFs that are now falling in the buy zones.&nbsp; In practical terms, there is no change in the guidance given in the Afternoon Capsule on September 6.</li>
<li>The head and shoulders pattern works about 70% of the time.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that semiconductors are oversold.&nbsp; Oversold stocks and ETFs tend to bounce.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) introduced the iPhone16.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, we paid careful attention to the event. There is no change to the analysis The Arora Report provided you in advance of the event.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Apple is clearly anxious about today&#8217;s event, as demonstrated by the fact that this event is taking place on a Monday, whereas Apple generally does not hold major events on Mondays.&nbsp; Apple is trying to get ahead of a potential European Commission decision on Apple being forced to pay $14B in taxes.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Apple's anxiety was justified.&nbsp; Apple has lost the $14B tax fight.&nbsp; Apple's loss means that going forward Apple will have a higher tax burden in Europe.</li>
<li>CPI data will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; Here are the expectations:
<ul>
<li>Headline consensus is 0.2%.</li>
<li>Core consensus is 0.2%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The market is positioned for CPI to be benign.&nbsp; If CPI is much hotter than expected, due to market positioning, significant downside is probable.&nbsp; Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Understanding Wall Street mechanics gives investors several big edges.&nbsp; Due to their high value, Wall Street professionals keep the details of Wall Street mechanics close to their chest.</li>
<li>Sentiment has quickly turned very positive.</li>
<li>There are crosscurrents in the markets based on buying and selling by those who are driven by partisan politics ahead of the presidential debate between Harris and Trump.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVDA, and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

This Chart Before Buying AI Stocks, Apple Loses $14B Fight

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-09_08h25_11.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Hope Pinned On Apple Intelligence</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-short-squeeze-weaker-yen-apple-intelligence-aapl-mc-09092024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of AAPL stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the iPhone 15 was launched.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move from iPhone 15 launch to today's iPhone 16 launch.</li>
<li>Investors are hopeful that the move in AAPL stock from the iPhone 16 launch to the iPhone 17 will be much bigger compared to the stock move between the launch of iPhone 15 and iPhone 16.</li>
<li>The chart shows that even though investors have stars in their eyes, for the short term, AAPL stock has traced a negative pattern.
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that AAPL stock hit the top of the resistance zone in July.</li>
<li>The chart shows that AAPL stock failed to penetrate the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after AAPL stock failed to penetrate the resistance zone, it fell all the way to the bottom band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that AAPL stock rallied after falling to the bottom of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally stopped at the low band of the resistance zone.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Investors are mostly focused on hopes that Apple Intelligence, the name for Apple's artificial intelligence, will start a new super cycle of iPhone sales, and thus lift Apple sales from being sluggish for a long time.</li>
<li>Even though there is a lot of exuberance about Apple Intelligence, prudent investors need to remember that the momo crowd focuses only on the bullish factors and ignores the negative factors.&nbsp; In contrast, smart money takes into account both positive and negative factors.</li>
<li>There are several negative factors about Apple that the stock market is ignoring right now that prudent investors should be aware of:
<ul>
<li>Apple intelligence will likely not be available in the European Union and China.</li>
<li>Even in the U.S., most Apple Intelligence features will not be available right away.</li>
<li>The launch of all Apple Intelligence features is staggered over a long period of time.</li>
<li>The fact that Apple Intelligence that will initially be present in the iPhone is only half baked may delay the super cycle.</li>
<li>The marketing hype about Apple Intelligence is way more than reality.</li>
<li>Apple does not own its AI.&nbsp; Apple is licensing its AI from OpenAI.</li>
<li>The model behind the AI that Apple is offering is not running on the iPhone or on Apple servers.&nbsp; The model appears to be running on &nbsp;NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) based servers owned by Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).</li>
<li>Apple has been receiving $20B per year from Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) to make Google the default search.&nbsp; A judge has ruled that Google is a monopolist.&nbsp; In due course, the government may force Google to stop paying $20B to Apple.</li>
<li>In China, Apple is losing market share to Huawei.
<ul>
<li>Many Chinese believe that Huawei phones are superior to the iPhone.</li>
<li>Huawei is trying to crash Apple's iPhone part by introducing the world's first tri-fold phone.</li>
<li>Due to geopolitics between the U.S. and China, nationalist sentiment in China is rising against the U.S.&nbsp; This poses a significant risk to Apple since about 20% of Apple sales come from China.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>We understand that investors are very loyal to Apple.&nbsp; Before sending us hate email for doing a comprehensive analysis, note that Apple is the largest position in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Long time members of The Arora Report are long AAPL stock from $4.68.
<ul>
<li>Note that Warren Buffett has been selling AAPL stock.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Prudent investors should also be aware that Apple can easily manipulate its stock.&nbsp; After the last Apple event when Apple had carefully staged to run up its stock, Apple stock started falling.&nbsp; Apple aggressively bought its own stock to cause a technical breakout.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Apple is clearly anxious about today's event, as demonstrated by the fact that this event is taking place on a Monday, whereas Apple generally does not hold major events on Mondays.&nbsp; Apple is trying to get ahead of a potential European Commission decision on Apple being forced to pay $14B in taxes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is aggressive buying in stocks this morning due to two reasons:
<ul>
<li>A short squeeze is occurring. The technical pattern with the stock market, especially AI stocks traced on Friday afternoon, historically leads to a selloff on Monday.&nbsp;&nbsp;When stock futures did not open much lower on Sunday night, a short squeeze started.&nbsp; As the night went on, the short squeeze accelerated.</li>
<li>The reason stock futures did not open much lower is because Japanese yen weakened.&nbsp; The weakening yen has saved AI stocks from a blood bath this morning.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The fact that a short squeeze and weakening yen saved the stock market means that prudent investors should not become complacent.&nbsp; Pay attention to the protection band.&nbsp; See the Protection Band And What To Do Now section below.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.&nbsp; Bitcoin ETFs have seen a negative money flow of $1.2B in the last eight days.&nbsp; This is the longest streak of negative money flows in bitcoins ETFs.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Tech

Investors Pin Hope On Apple Intelligence, Short Squeeze And Weaker Yen Drive Stock Market Higher

Macro Economic Events

Market Summary

Benzinga Market Summary: Stocks Fall After Mixed Jobs Data, Trump Hush Money Sentencing To Take Place After 2024 Election, Gold And Silver Fall As Dollar Rises

Gold and silver are trading lower amid a rise in the dollar.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-06_08h42_15.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Critical Waller Remarks Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-mother-of-all-numbers-spy-mc-09062024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market formed a double top inside the resistance zone and was unable to penetrate the resistance zone.&nbsp; From a technical perspective, this is a negative.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has fallen below the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is oversold. &nbsp;Oversold markets tend to bounce.&nbsp; This is exactly what is happening in the early trade.&nbsp; In the early trade, almost all of the buying is from the momo crowd. Smart money is waiting for remarks from Fed Governor Waller.</li>
<li>Critical remarks from Fed Governor Waller are ahead after the jobs report.&nbsp; Waller will speak at 11 am ET.&nbsp; It appears that the reason Waller remarks are scheduled at this time is to give Waller time to consult with Powell and other Fed members and provide the market with some guidance.</li>
<li>Waller's remarks will determine the near term market direction.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports due to its importance, has disappointed both bulls and bears.&nbsp; The reason is because the data is such a mixture it does not fit anyone's narrative.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 142K vs. 165K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 118K vs. 142K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.3 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.2% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>This jobs report makes the Fed's job difficult as the data does not clearly support either of the two Fed scenarios – 25 bps cut or 50 bps cut.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index came at 51.5% vs. 51% consensus.&nbsp; This stronger than expected data has helped the stock market.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note the yen is rallying after the jobs report.&nbsp; This increases the risk to the carry trade and in turn, to the U.S. stock market.</li>
<li>The momo crowd was pinning its hopes on Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) earnings to kickstart another leg of the AI stock rally.&nbsp; Broadcom is a major chip supplier including custom AI chips for hyperscalers.
<ul>
<li>Broadcom met expectations for AI chips.</li>
<li>Broadcom's traditional business did not meet expectations.</li>
<li>Overall Broadcom earnings are significantly less than whisper numbers.&nbsp; This is a negative for AI stocks.&nbsp; However, note that technically, AI stocks are oversold, and oversold stocks tend to bounce.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Bonds initially rallied after the jobs report. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, there is likely to be a rethink in the bond market.&nbsp; If this rethink happens, the bond market will give up its gains.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying after the jobs report along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Mother Of All Reports Disappoints Both Bulls And Bears – Critical Waller Remarks Ahead

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-05_07h52_00.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Jobs Picture</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-mother-of-all-numbers-clx-nvda-mc-09052024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Clorox Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLX#NYSE">CLX</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>). CLX chart is in the top pane.&nbsp; NVDA chart is in the bottom pane.
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The charts of CLX and NVDA stocks are being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that CLX has made significant gains at a time when NVDA has lost market value, including the worst day ever for NVDA when it lost $279B.</li>
<li>The trendline on the chart shows that CLX has moved up smoothly, whereas NVDA has been very volatile.&nbsp; CLX stock is an example of high risk adjusted return, whereas there is high risk in NVDA stock at this time.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, CLX is in the portfolio that surrounds the core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; NVDA is in the core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Having CLX and NVDA in the portfolio from a risk perspective is an illustration of how to structure a portfolio for high risk adjusted returns to maximize the wealth you generate over your lifetime.</li>
<li>CLX is an example of the cyberhack strategy.&nbsp; The premise behind the cyberhack strategy is that when a company is cyberhacked, and its business suffers, the decline in the stock is often temporary and presents a buying opportunity.&nbsp; CLX stock dropped when it was not able to ship orders due to a cyberhack.&nbsp; As full disclosure, CLX is long from $118.78.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that CLX is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks tend to pullback.&nbsp; Pullbacks are often buying opportunities.&nbsp; As full disclosure, there will be a new signal in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy on CLX.</li>
<li>JOLTS jobs report came at 7.67M openings vs. 8.1M consensus.&nbsp; This indicates the jobs picture is weakening.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book indicated that economic activity is stable to declining in most regions of the country.</li>
<li>ADP employment change came at 99K vs. 150K consensus.&nbsp; ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country.&nbsp; ADP uses its data to give a glimpse of the jobs picture in advance of the official report.
<ul>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the ADP report shows that the jobs picture is weakening. The momo crowd is oblivious as usual, but prudent investors need to be aware that the weakening jobs picture leads to a weakening economy.&nbsp; A weakening economy leads to lower earnings.&nbsp; Lower earnings lead to a lower stock market.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Jobless claims came at 227K vs. 236K consensus.&nbsp; This data is running counter to other recent data.&nbsp; However, as we have been stressing, investors should look at the four week moving average and not any one single week.&nbsp; Jobless claims is also a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in The Arora Report models.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; The consensus is 51.&nbsp; This data is likely to be market moving if it is far off from the consensus.&nbsp; This is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">ten categories</a>.&nbsp; In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-3/">click here</a> to see how this is achieved.&nbsp; Most models on Wall Street are static.&nbsp; They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.</li>
<li>The jobs report, also known as the mother of all numbers due to its importance, is ahead.&nbsp; It will be released Friday at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; Here are the consensus numbers:
<ul>
<li>Non-farm payrolls of 165K</li>
<li>Non-farm private payrolls of 142K</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings of 0.3%</li>
<li>Unemployment rate of 4.2%</li>
<li>Average work week of 34.3</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report will have a major impact on the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, here are the current probabilities:
<ul>
<li>75% probability of a 25 basis point cut</li>
<li>25% probability of a 50 basis point cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the non-farm payrolls are under 100K and the unemployment rate reaches 4.5% or higher, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut will go up significantly.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the non-farm payrolls are under 100K and the unemployment rate reaches 4.5% or higher, the probability of a stock market correction will go up to 70%.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing light selling.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Nvidia Beaten By Clorox, Mother Of All Reports Ahead

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-03_08h37_11.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investing In AI</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-investing-in-artificial-intelligence-smci-mc-09032024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of SMCI is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>SMCI has long been the second most favorite stock of the momo crowd.&nbsp; A majority of the momo crowd positions were bought when the momo crowd was super excited on SMCI crossing above $1000.&nbsp; As of this writing in the premarket, SMCI is trading at $432.24.</li>
<li>The chart shows the SMCI stock took another leg down when SMCI said that it would not timely file its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024.&nbsp; The delay is apparently due to weakness in internal controls.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the drop was on heavy volume.&nbsp; This indicates that sellers had conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock is oversold and can bounce.</li>
<li>The chart shows that from the peak SMCI stock has fallen 67.6%. There is anecdotal evidence that many momo crowd investors were going all in on SMCI above $1000.&nbsp; Such investors are now sitting on massive losses.</li>
<li>The chart shows SMCI demonstrates the perfect example of what not to do when investing in AI.</li>
<li>The chart should not surprise you because as a reader of The Arora Report, you knew a drop was coming.&nbsp; The high in SMCI occurred on March 8.&nbsp; Four days before the high, on March 4, we wrote in the Morning Capsule,</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">SMCI has become a favorite of the momo crowd.&nbsp; The momo crowd incorrectly thinks SMCI has the same potential as NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).&nbsp; Investors need to keep in mind the following:
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>SMCI moves a lot more than NVDA.&nbsp; SMCI is so volatile because of the small float.</li>
<li>SMCI is an assembler of servers for artificial intelligence.&nbsp; It uses components from NVDA, Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), and Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRVL#NASDAQ">MRVL</a>).</li>
<li>NVDA has a large moat to protect it that includes IP for its GPUs.&nbsp; SMCI has no moat and the barrier to entry for competitors is low.</li>
<li>SMCI sales are to hyperscalers like Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).&nbsp; The reason SMCI sales are booming is that they have availability of NVDA chips.&nbsp; As chips become more available to competitors, SMCI will not be able to sustain its sales growth rate.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is buying SMCI due to lack of knowledge.&nbsp; However, there are many investors who understand and have the knowledge of SMCI&#8217;s business.&nbsp; Many such investors are short selling SMCI.&nbsp; For the time being, short sellers are being overwhelmed by the YOLO crowd.</li>
<li>Taking all of the above into consideration with the <a href="https://thearorareport.com/zyx-quantitative-screen">quantitative analysis screen</a> of the ZYX Change Method, in an optimistic case, the fair value of SMCI stock is $442 &#8211; $486.</li>
<li>The spot on call above from The Arora Report demonstrates the wisdom of what The Arora Report has been sharing with you – a fortune is to be made in artificial intelligence between now and 2030.&nbsp; However, it is not going to be a straight line.&nbsp; At times, it is going to be treacherous.&nbsp; Based on the feedback from investors so far, it is clear that investors who are developing in depth knowledge of investing in AI are doing better than those who are not, with both groups getting the same signals.</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
<ul>
<li>The consensus is 47.5.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom among smart money is that a weaker number will mean weaker earnings and thus it will be negative for the stock market.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom among smart money is that a stronger number will be positive for the stock market.</li>
<li>The prevailing thinking among the momo crowd is that a weaker number will be one more data point for the Fed to cut rates in September by 0.5% instead of the consensus of 0.25%.&nbsp; Thus, it will be a positive for the stock market.</li>
<li>The prevailing thinking among the momo crowd is that a strong number will be negative for the stock market.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Today is the first trading day of the month.&nbsp; The blind money is the money that pours into the stock market on the first two days of a new month without any analysis and irrespective of market conditions.&nbsp; Blind money is not price sensitive, i.e. blind money does not care the price it is paying for the stocks. Most of the blind money is invested in the afternoon.&nbsp; Traders know this and they typically buy stocks to sell to blind money at a higher price.</li>
<li>This morning, traders are not front running blind money for three reasons.
<ul>
<li>September is traditionally a weak month.</li>
<li>There are new concerns about the yen strengthening and carry trade blowing up again.</li>
<li>ISM data is ahead.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In the early trade, stocks are being sold on concern about the carry trade.&nbsp; In a carry trade, investors borrow in yen to invest in stocks in the U.S., primarily in AI stocks.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), AMZN, GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), MSFT, and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

MRVL

SMCI

Here Is What Not To Do When Investing In AI, ISM Ahead

Gold and silver are trading lower amid a rise in the US dollar.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-08-28_08h34_57.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Blackwell Guidance Is The Key</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-blackwell-guidance-russia-bitcoin-nvda-mc-08282024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>In the history of the stock market, there has seldom been a stock like NVDA.&nbsp; Nvidia earnings will determine the near term course of the stock market.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA stock staged a major rally after touching the low band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that over the last few days NVDA stock has been consolidating.</li>
<li>The chart shows the consolidation has been on average volume, indicating that there is not strong conviction ahead of earnings.</li>
<li>The options market indicates a tilt towards buying.</li>
<li>The Arora Report's proprietary VUD indicator measures net supply and demand in real time.&nbsp; Going into earnings, the VUD indicator for NVDA is mixed.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA stock can easily go in either direction.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is aggressively buying NVDA stock.&nbsp; The belief among the momo crowd is that NVDA will go to $150 after earnings.</li>
<li>Institutions and hedge funds continue to trim NVDA ahead of earnings.&nbsp; They are not trimming because they are negative on NVDA.&nbsp; They are trimming because they know that earnings is a risk event.&nbsp; Smart money tends to reduce risk ahead of events.&nbsp; In contrast, the momo crowd buys ahead of events because the momo crowd is fixated on the possible rewards and ignores the risks.</li>
<li>As we have been sharing with you, whisper numbers for Nvidia earnings continue to ratchet up.&nbsp; Whisper numbers are higher than consensus.</li>
<li>Stocks move based on the difference between the reported numbers and whisper numbers. Whisper numbers are the numbers that analysts privately share only with their best clients.&nbsp; Whisper numbers from the same analysts are often quite different from the numbers they publish for public consumption. Whisper numbers is a technique used by analysts to drum up business.</li>
<li>Previously we shared with you that Nvidia was expecting significant Blackwell revenues this year.&nbsp; Blackwell is the next generation system from Nvidia.
<ul>
<li>In large part, the drop in NVDA stock shown on the chart from the highs was related to the potential delay in Blackwell shipments.</li>
<li>The rally in NVDA stock shown on the chart is in part due to analysts defending Nvidia and a building consensus that the delay is only for four to six weeks.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, what happens to NVDA stock and the stock market, in large part, will depend on Nvidia's guidance on Blackwell shipments.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The options market is implying about a 10% move in either direction after Nvidia earnings, compared to the prior 9%.&nbsp; Such a move will mean value creation or value destruction of about $300B.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in NVDA, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) has seen a significant sell off as bitcoin whales unload bitcoin to retail investors.&nbsp; As is their pattern, bitcoin whales tend to sell bitcoin into the strength generated by retail buying.
There are three other developments negatively impacting bitcoin.
<ul>
<li>Telegram is a messaging app that is popular among bitcoin users.&nbsp; French authorities have arrested Pavel Durov, the Russian born founder of Telegram.&nbsp; France is investigating criminal activities on the app.</li>
<li>A bitcoin rival toncoin has crashed.&nbsp; The reason for the toncoin drop is that toncoin is linked to Telegram.</li>
<li>The third reason is a leak that Russia is getting ready to set up crypto exchanges.&nbsp; Russia's intention is to use bitcoin to circumvent U.S. sanctions.</li>
</ul>
Both Trump and Harris are showing enthusiasm for crypto to garner votes from single issue voters – these are crypto bulls.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the concern is that when elected the new president will not support crypto due to the Russia development.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

Earnings

Blackwell Guidance Is The Key To Nvidia And Stock Market, Whales Sell Bitcoin – Russia To Compete

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rotation</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-dow-jones-all-time-high-nvidia-earnings-dia-mc-08272024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) broke out to a new all time high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout is not convincing.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that DJIA is overbought.&nbsp; An overbought index tends to be vulnerable to a pullback.</li>
<li>The chart shows that volume is not heavy on the breakout to a new all time high.&nbsp; This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>The reason behind the breakout in DJIA is that a rotation is taking place into cyclical and interest rate sensitive stocks and away from tech stocks.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note as DJIA hit a new all time high, AI and semiconductor stocks were being hit.
<ul>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, this rotation is especially noteworthy because the momo crowd is aggressively buying AI and semiconductor stocks ahead of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) earnings.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports earnings tomorrow after the close.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, aggressive buying by the momo crowd in NVDA and other AI stocks is being countered with selling from hedge funds and institutions.&nbsp; Prudent investors should note that it is not that hedge funds and institutions are negative on Nvidia.&nbsp; It is that they represent smart money.&nbsp; Smart money knows that Nvidia earnings is a risk event.&nbsp; The risk is both to the upside and the downside.&nbsp; As we have been sharing with you over the years, smart money tends to reduce risk ahead of events.&nbsp; In contrast, the momo crowd buys ahead of events because the momo crowd always has stars in their eyes and does not take risk into account.</li>
<li>The options market is pricing in a 9% move after Nvidia earnings.</li>
<li>The widespread belief among the momo crowd is that NVDA stock will go above $150 after the earnings.&nbsp; Such a move will represent about a 20% upside move.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Nvidia is long from $12.55 in The Arora Report ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.&nbsp; </li>
<li>The foregoing illustrates the need for optimum diversification.&nbsp; The Arora Report reaches the optimum diversification through diversification of stocks and ETFs, asset classes, geography, strategy, time frame, and protection.</li>
<li>Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Germany</h3>
The German economy is no longer expanding.&nbsp; Germany is Europe's largest economy.
Germany's Q2 GDP contracted by 0.1% vs. 0.1% contraction consensus.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
China is determined to become the world leader in autonomous vehicles.&nbsp; China has just issued 16,000 license plates for testing autonomous vehicles on designated public roads.
For investors, autonomous driving is the next big opportunity.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVDA, and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing a pullback along with speculative and junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Eurozone

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

Dow Jones Hits All Time High But Semiconductors And AI Stocks Get Hit Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-08-26_08h23_03.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protect Your Wealth</h3>
Please<a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-us-dollar-trouble-in-libya-usdx-mc-08262024"> click here</a> for an enlarged chart of U.S. dollar index (USDX, DX, DXY).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>Investors need to pay attention to the dollar to protect their wealth if their wealth is in dollars or tied to the dollar.</li>
<li>The chart is a weekly chart to give you a longer term perspective.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dollar is at the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dollar made a double top.&nbsp; This is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows the dollar is oversold, which could lead to a bounce in the short term.</li>
<li>The chart shows that if the support zone is broken, there is significant room for the dollar to fall.</li>
<li>The U.S. owes its economic prosperity and its status as the sole superpower in large part to the dollar being the world's reserve currency.
<ul>
<li>Most of the world's trade is conducted in dollars.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>China is determined to replace the U.S. as the world's sole superpower.&nbsp; The Chinese and Russian governments understand that the key to achieving their objectives is to weaken the dollar and replace the dollar as the reserve currency.
<ul>
<li>China and Russia have accelerated their attacks on the U.S. dollar.&nbsp; They have the support of BRICS.&nbsp; BRICS is a bloc that has consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.&nbsp; Six more countries have joined the BRICS bloc.&nbsp; The new countries are Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>All investors should take steps to protect their wealth.&nbsp; Investors should consider emerging markets, other developed markets, currencies when appropriate, gold, commodities, and commodity producers including metal producers, as exemplified in The Arora Report's ZYX Allocation and ZYX Emerging Model Portfolios.</li>
<li>The world is interconnected.&nbsp; Oil prices are jumping about 3% this morning on trouble in Libya. Libya is a divided country with two rival governments – Tripoli based government and Benghazi based government.&nbsp; The Benghazi government has shut down all crude oil exports.&nbsp; This is in response to the Tripoli based government replacing the leadership of the central bank.
<ul>
<li>Many media headlines are wrong in claiming that oil prices are jumping on Israel conducting a preemptive attack on Lebanon on Sunday and Hezbollah responding.&nbsp; The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has no direct impact on oil unless Iran directly gets involved. So far, Iran has not been directly involved.</li>
<li>The real reason oil prices are jumping is coming from Libya.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Investors need to pay attention to oil prices because one of the reasons behind inflation coming down is the lower price of oil.&nbsp; The Fed is planning to cut rates because of lower inflation.&nbsp; The stock market has been going up on hopes of a rate cut.&nbsp; If the price of oil shoots up, inflation will rise, limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates.&nbsp; Such a scenario will be negative for the stock market, which is trading at a very high valuation.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Durable goods data is mixed.
<ul>
<li>Durable Orders came at 9.9% vs. 4.0% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable Orders Ex-Transport came at -0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is approaching $64,000.&nbsp; The recent rise has rekindled hopes of bitcoin making a new high and then going to $100,000.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Pay Attention To Protecting Your Wealth, Trouble In Libya Impacts The U.S.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-08-23_08h07_36.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hopium</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-fed-interest-rates-spy-mc-08232024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that after tracing a V bottom on the carry trade unwind, the stock market is in the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The RSI pattern shown on the chart is such that the stock market can go either way.</li>
<li>Bulls are hopeful that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole today will trigger a breakout in the stock market to a new high.</li>
<li>The consensus on Wall Street is that if the stock market does not break out above the resistance zone shown on the chart on Powell's speech, the stock market will break out on NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) earnings.</li>
<li>Nvidia earnings will be released on August 28 after the close.&nbsp; Whisper numbers continue to ratchet up as analysts compete to generate business.</li>
<li>The best way for prudent investors to think about the market now is that almost everyone is on one side of the boat.&nbsp; The boat will continue to cruise just fine as long as there is no turbulence.&nbsp; However, the slightest turbulence can cause trouble because almost everyone is on the same side.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows when the stock market recently fell on the unwind of the carry trade.&nbsp; The unwind was due to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising its interest rates and consequently strengthening the yen.
<ul>
<li>A big part of the reason behind the market's rally is a statement from the BOJ saying it would not raise rates as long as the market is unstable.</li>
<li>After the statement from the BOJ, funds are back establishing new carry trades.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda has now stated, "If we are able to confirm a rising certainty that the economy and prices will stay in line with forecasts, there's no change to our stance that we'll continue to adjust the degree of easing." In plain English, this means the BOJ is likely to raise interest rates again.&nbsp; Such a raise may cause the carry trade to unwind again.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVDA, and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Powell Jackson Hole Hopium Is At Hand, Nvidia Hopium Is Ahead, Carry Trade Risk

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-08-22_08h54_38.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Semiconductor Buying</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-semiconductor-buying-payroll-revision-nvda-mc-08222024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the moves in semiconductors after prior NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) earnings.</li>
<li>The chart shows that semiconductors traced a double top, which is a negative pattern, and then dropped to the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that semiconductors bounced off of the support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that semiconductors are overbought. Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable to the downside.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is aggressively buying semiconductors ahead of Nvidia earnings as they believe semiconductors will rise after Nvidia earnings just like they have in the past.
<ul>
<li>Prudent investors need to remember that history is instructive, but the road ahead is not always the same as the road behind.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>U.S. payrolls have been revised down by 818,000 for the year ending in March.&nbsp; This is the biggest downward revision since 2009.</li>
<li>The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not post the jobs revision data on its website at 10am ET as it was supposed to.&nbsp; However, the banks who called the Bureau were able to get the data, gaining an advantage.&nbsp; The data was finally made available about 30 minutes late.
<ul>
<li>The initial reaction from the market was a spike up as many believe this will encourage the Fed to make bigger rate cuts.</li>
<li>Investors who knew that the data did not include data since March sold into the spike.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The FOMC minutes were dovish and indicate that the Fed is poised to cut rates in September.</li>
<li>Weekly jobless claims came at 232K vs. 225K consensus. Lately, the stock market is reacting when jobless claims are lower than the consensus but ignoring when they are higher than the consensus.&nbsp; The reason is that the bullish sentiment is so extreme that investors want to hear only what makes the market go higher.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVDA, and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying as the Harris campaign indicates support for crypto.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Momo Crowd Buying Semiconductors Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings, Biggest Payroll Revision Since 2009

Silver is Bullish and the key resistance levels are $32 and $35. Don't expect $50 to come into play until the second half of 2025.

Key Silver Levels You Need To Know

Commerzbank cuts year-end Brent oil forecast to $75/bbl as demand continues to lose momentum

The Next Leg Of The Commodity Supercycle?

Gold pushes to new record, silver pops 2.5%, with Fed rate cut seen as bullish

And so we see a strong rally in stocks, based on no new information that triggered the sharp sell off from the day before. Gold and silver, which had sold off sharply the day before, rallied strongly.

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - Deceitful Children And Their Illusions

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Metal Markets Report For Thursday, Sept 19

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in various SPDR-ETF markets for the trading day that ended, Thursday, September 19.

SPDR ETF Report For Thursday, Sept 19

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $31.10 per troy ounce on Friday.

Get Our Top Trade Ideas Delivered Daily - 65% Off Now

Get Our Top Trade Ideas Delivered Daily - 65% Off Now

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iShares Silver Trust

Overview

iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV), Quote.Headers.trade-ideas