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Wall Street reacted with unease to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell‘s remarks following a landmark decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to a target range of 4.75% to 5%

Powell&#39;s Hawkish Tone Tempers Market Excitement After Historic 50-Basis-Point Interest Rate Cut, Economist Sees &#39;Welcome News For Credit-Sensitive Sectors&#39;

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Editor’s note: This story has been updated with additional information. 

S&amp;P 500, Gold Strike All-Time Highs, Small Caps Rally After Fed Slashes Interest Rates For First Time In 4 Years (UPDATED)

Jerome Powell

Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points at September FOMC meeting, first cut in 4 years. Lowered growth and inflation forecasts, higher unemployment projections. Dot plot signals more cuts ahead.

Federal Reserve Delivers Bold 0.5% Interest Rate Cut, Signals Further Easing Ahead (UPDATED)

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Wall Street reacted with unease to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s remarks following a landmark decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to a target range <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40927293/powell-defends-0-5-interest-rate-drop-as-right-thing-for-the-economy-doubles-down">of 4.75% to 5%. </a>
The Federal Reserve&#8217;s highly anticipated dot plot, which outlines each policymaker&#8217;s rate path preference, indicated that policymakers <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40926026/federal-reserve-delivers-bold-0-5-rate-cut-signals-further-easing-ahead">anticipate further easing ahead</a>. The dot plot signaled that the Fed is likely to cut rates by a quarter percentage point at each of the next two decisions. Looking further ahead, it suggests an additional rate reduction of at least another percentage point in 2025.
Despite the initial market euphoria following the 50-basis-point rate cut, Powell&#8217;s cautious remarks on the future rate path have injected uncertainty into the markets.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/09/40928301/interest-rates-in-free-fall-what-it-means-for-mortgages-credit-cards-and-your-wallet-a">Interest Rates In Free-Fall &#8211; What It Means For Mortgages, Credit Cards And Your Wallet As The Federal Reserve Springs Into Action For First Time In 4 Years</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Response To Rate Cut, Powell&#8217;s Remarks</h3>
Initially, the S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), surged to record highs. Gold prices, represented by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), also hit all-time highs as the U.S. dollar weakened.
Interest-rate sensitive stocks were the largest gainers between 2 p.m. and 2:35 p.m. ET, with small caps outperforming large-cap counterparts.
Yet, Powell&#8217;s cautionary comments during the press conference caused a reversal in market sentiment.
Here&#8217;s how major asset classes closed on the Fed&#8217;s decision day:
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar, which many believed would plummet in a 50-basis-point cut scenario, instead recouped its losses and rallied to weekly highs. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) closed 0.1% higher.</li>
<li>U.S. large-cap indices all ended the day in the red, paring back gains made immediately after the rate decision. The S&amp;P 500 finished 0.3% lower, while the Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), declined by 0.4%.</li>
<li>Small caps managed to close unchanged for the day, but they still gave back all their post-rate-cut gains.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) was the only sector to close in positive territory, up 0.2%. </li>
<li>The worst performer was the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), which fell 1%.</li>
<li>Gold dropped 0.4% to $2,555 per ounce, hitting levels last seen on Thursday of the previous week.</li>
<li>Silver and oil also saw robust declines, closing 2.1% and 1.2% lower, respectively.</li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 1.1% to $59,717.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Powell&#8217;s Caution Stirs Investor Uncertainty</h3>
While defending the 50-basis-point rate cut, Powell tempered market enthusiasm, emphasizing that such a cut should not be seen as a new norm. His key statements on Wednesday included:
<ul>
<li>&#8220;No one should look at today and think this is the new pace.&#8221;</li>
<li>&#8220;We can go quicker or slower, or pause, on rate cuts if it is appropriate.&#8221;</li>
<li>&#8220;There is nothing in our projections that suggest we are in a rush.&#8221;</li>
<li>&#8220;If the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
These comments signaled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, disappointing investors who had hoped for a more aggressive easing cycle.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Insights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial: &#8220;We learned from today's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that the Fed is interested in getting to a neutral fed funds rate as quickly as possible.&#8221;</li>
<li>John Lynch, Comerica Wealth Management: &#8220;The Fed was more aggressive than I expected, since 50 basis point cuts are historically associated with crises. I don't consider 2% GDP, 4.2% unemployment rate, and 15% profit growth forecasts for 2025 as a crisis.&#8221;</li>
<li>Bill Adams, Comerica Bank: &#8220;With the Fed pivoting, interest rates will be substantially lower over the next six to twelve months. That is very welcome news for credit-sensitive sectors of the economy like housing, manufacturing, and retailers of cars and other big-ticket consumer products.&#8221;</li>
<li>Chris Zaccarelli, Independent Advisor Alliance: &#8220;Lowering interest rates now should allow the market to hit all-time highs again by the end of this year, and more gains for next year.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40923390/20-s-p-500-stocks-that-move-the-most-when-the-fed-starts-cutting-interest-rates">20 S&amp;P 500 Stocks That Move The Most When The Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Powell's Hawkish Tone Tempers Market Excitement After Historic 50-Basis-Point Interest Rate Cut, Economist Sees 'Welcome News For Credit-Sensitive Sectors'

Editor&#8217;s note: This story has been updated with additional information. 
Markets are bouncing Wednesday afternoon following the Federal Reserve&#8217;s decision to cut rates by 0.5%, marking the beginning of the central bank&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40918078/is-the-fed-playing-with-fire-we-see-greater-risk-of-an-overheating-economy-as-they-">highly anticipated cutting cycle</a>.
What To Know: Wednesday&#8217;s&nbsp;0.5% rate cut brings the&nbsp;target fed funds rate&nbsp;to a new range&nbsp;between 4.75% and 5%, down from a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%. It&#8217;s also the first rate cut since March 2020.
The fed funds rate has been sitting at a range between&nbsp;5.25% and 5.5%&nbsp;since the central bank last hiked in July 2023.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/s-p-500">S&amp;P 500</a> index, was up 0.44% at all-time highs at last check, led higher by a variety of names like Arm Holdings Plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTD#NASDAQ">TTD</a>) Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TM#NYSE">TM</a>), General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Marriott International (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAR#NASDAQ">MAR</a>).
The materials sector, as tracked by the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>), was showing the most strength at the time of writing, climbing approximately 0.6% following the Fed decision. The energy sector, tracked by the Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>), was the weakest, down 0.3% following the rate cut. Energy stocks had performed well on Wednesday ahead of the Fed decision, which may explain some of the relative weakness in afternoon trading.
Here&#8217;s a look at how various ETFs tracking the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average, tech stocks, small caps, treasuries and gold are faring following the Fed&#8217;s latest move.
<ul>
<li>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>): up 0.38% at $418.87.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>): up 0.59% at $476.25.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>IShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>): up 2.31% at $224.36. Small caps outperformed broader markets ahead of the rate cut and continued to outperform in afternoon trading.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>IShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>): down 0.36% at $100.48.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>): up 0.66% at $239.02. Gold hit all-time highs following the Fed&#8217;s rate decision.</li>
</ul>
It&#8217;s also worth noting that crypto markets are volatile following the Fed decision on rates. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was down 0.86% over a 24-hour period, trading at $60,480, but well off its lows for the day, and Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) was down 1.79% at $2,322. 
Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40926026/federal-reserve-delivers-bold-0-5-rate-cut-signals-further-easing-ahead">Federal Reserve Delivers Bold 0.5% Rate Cut, Signals Further Easing Ahead</a>
The increased volatility is likely a result of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40883274/senator-warren-urges-fed-to-slash-rates-by-0-75-veteran-investor-warns-even-0-5-cut">uncertainty heading into the meeting</a>. According to CME&#8217;s <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">FedWatch tool</a>, the market was projecting a 61% chance of a larger 0.5% rate cut heading into the meeting versus a 39% chance of a smaller 0.25% cut.
As reported by Benzinga, the updated quarterly Dot Plot, which helps signal the Fed&#8217;s future policy intentions, indicates a more aggressive path for rate cuts than previously projected following Wednesday&#8217;s 0.5% cut. The median projection now calls for a total of 1% in rate cuts in 2024.
SPY Price Action: At the time of publication, the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500</a> was up 0.44%, trading at $565.62, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40908202/10-etfs-investors-secretly-bought-before-the-feds-make-or-break-interest-rate-cal">10 ETFs Investors Secretly Bought Before The Fed&#8217;s Make-Or-Break Interest Rate Call</a></li>
</ul>
Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s press conference here: 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534;WATCH LIVE: Jerome Powell Speaks, FOMC Press Conference &#x7C; September 18th, 2024" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qVdXli47cWk?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
This illustration was generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

S&P 500, Gold Strike All-Time Highs, Small Caps Rally After Fed Slashes Interest Rates For First Time In 4 Years (UPDATED)

Editor&#8217;s note: This story has been updated with additional details. 
The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 50 basis points Wednesday at its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to a range <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40921827/fed-decision-is-here-5-things-investors-need-to-know-ahead-of-wednesdays-pivotal-in">of 4.75% to 5%. </a>This marks the first rate cut in over four years and breaks a streak of 12 consecutive months with rates held steady.
The decision caught Wall Street analysts off guard who had largely anticipated a more modest 25-basis-point cut. The larger reduction resonated with investor sentiment, which had leaned toward a more aggressive easing approach at the start of the rate-cut cycle.
&#8220;The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,&#8221; the FOMC statement says.
In its updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed marginally revised its forecasts. Economic growth for the current year was lowered to 2%, down from 2.1% in June, while projections for 2025 and 2026 were unchanged. Inflation projections saw downward revisions for both 2024 and 2025, while the unemployment rate was revised upward across 2024, 2025 and 2026.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections (Sept. 2024)</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Variable</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
<th>2026</th>
<th>2027</th>
<th>Longer Run</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Change in real GDP</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unemployment rate</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PCE inflation</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PCE inflation</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Federal funds rate</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td></td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dot Plot Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead</h3>
The updated quarterly Dot Plot — a tool used by the FOMC to signal its future policy intentions — indicates a more aggressive path for rate cuts than previously projected.
The September median projection now points to 100 basis points of cuts in 2024, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to a midpoint of 4.4% by the end of this year. This suggests the Fed could enact 25 basis-point cuts at both the November and December meetings.
Further into the future, the Dot Plot signals the fed funds rate will drop to between 3.25% and 3.5% by the end of 2025, implying an additional 100 basis points of cuts. By the end of 2026 and the newly introduced projections for 2027, interest rates are expected to fall to 2.9%. 
This outlook marks a significant shift from the Fed&#8217;s June projections, which anticipated only one rate cut in 2024, followed by 100 basis points of cuts in both 2025 and 2026.
All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, where he is expected to provide further insights into the central bank&#8217;s decision and its outlook for the economy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar Tumbles; S&amp;P 500, Gold Mark All-Time Highs; Small Caps Rocket</h3>
The 50-basis-point rate cut triggered a sharp fall in the value of the U.S. dollar, with the greenback weakening across the board, particularly against the Japanese yen which rose by 1%. 
The&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) tumbled 0.3% after the Fed&#8217;s decision. 
Treasury yields also fell markedly, pushing bonds higher. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 0.2%. 
Gold prices soared 1%, with the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) setting fresh all-time highs. The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.4%, also hitting record highs. 
Small caps were the absolute winner in the post-Fed decision, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallying by 1.5%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Key Takeaways:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Rate decision: 50 basis points cut to 4.75%–5%.</li>
<li>Economic projections: Lower growth and inflation forecasts, higher unemployment projections.</li>
<li>Potential rate path: Dot plot signals 50 basis points more in cuts in 2024 and another 100 basis points in 2025. </li>
</ul>
Now read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40923390/20-s-p-500-stocks-that-move-the-most-when-the-fed-starts-cutting-interest-rates">20 S&amp;P 500 Stocks That Move The Most When The Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates</a></li>
</ul>
&nbsp;Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 bps.

Macro Notification

General

Fed Cuts Key Overnight Rate By 50 bps

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-18_08h25_17.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Credibility At Stake</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fed-day-rate-cut-wall-street-positioning-spy-mc-09182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of  SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is near the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally has been on low volume.&nbsp; This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI has just entered the overbought zone.&nbsp; This indicates that the stock market can go either way.</li>
<li>The chart shows that if the stock market does not break out and turns down from here, it will be tracing a triple top.&nbsp; A triple top is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET today and will be followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
<li>Understanding Wall Street positioning can give investors a big edge.&nbsp; Wall Street is positioned for a 50 bps cut and highly dovish comments.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Further in The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify very dovish commentary.&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed complies with the momo crowd's demands, the Fed's credibility will be hurt in the long run.&nbsp; There may be unintended consequences.&nbsp; One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.&nbsp; The other potential unintended consequence may be an unhealthy drop in the dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, S&amp;P 500 at 6000 is a magnet for traders.</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, the momo crowd will aggressively buy.&nbsp; However, it is not clear how smart money will react.&nbsp; There is a fair probability of smart money taking advantage of the strength to sell.</li>
<li>If the Fed cuts by 25 basis points, then the market reaction will depend on commentary and the dot plot.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed cuts by 25 bps and the commentary is not dovish, there is a downside risk to the stock market.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors need to be very mindful that the Fed is about to cut interest rates at a time when the stock market is near its all time high, house prices are near all time highs, and the economy is strong.&nbsp; Historically, the Fed cuts interest rates when the economy is weak or in recession, house prices are falling, and the stock market is weak.&nbsp; By aggressively cutting interest rates now accompanied by highly dovish commentary, the Fed risks its long term credibility.&nbsp; &nbsp; Highly dovish action now also has the potential to start rampant speculation in stocks, housing, and cryptos.</li>
<li>A 50 bps cut and highly dovish commentary will be helpful for a Harris election.&nbsp; The Fed will never admit it, but there is a school of thought that the Fed wants to help Harris win the election.&nbsp; The reason is that Trump has already said he will not reappoint Powell.&nbsp; Further, Trump has said that he will interfere with the Fed.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Housing Starts</h3>
Housing starts came at 1356K vs. 1320K consensus.
Building permits came at 1475K vs. 1415K consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, activity among builders is increasing as they anticipate falling interest rates will let loose pent up demand.&nbsp; This will increase economic activity, which in turn is good for the stock market.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying in anticipation of a 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; Bullish crypto gurus are hopeful that a 50 bps cut will take bitcoin to a new high.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

Fed Credibility At Stake - Wall Street Positioned For 50 BPS Cut And Highly Dovish Comments

On Tuesday, September 17th, U.S. markets closed mixed, with stocks ending nearly flat after reaching record highs. Strong economic data alleviated slowdown concerns as investors awaited the Federal Reserve&#8217;s first anticipated rate cut in over four years, addressing potential economic weakness amid mixed job market signals.
According to economic data, U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations of a decline of 0.2%. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 41 in September, while business inventories grew 0.4% in July, exceeding the expected 0.3% rise.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose on Tuesday, led by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials, while healthcare and consumer staples closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.04% and closed at 41,606.18. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.03% at 5,634.58, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%, finishing the session at 17,628.06.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.37% at 36,338.50, led by gains in the Shipbuilding, Paper &amp; Pulp, and Transportation Equipment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.01% at 8,142.10, led by gains in the Utilities, Energy, and Financials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.23% at 25,360.75, and the Nifty 500 was down by 0.38% at 23,875.75.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite closed higher by 0.49% at 2,717.28, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.37% and ended the day at 3,171.01.  </li>
<li>Hong Kong markets were closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.35%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was lower by 0.10%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was down 0.37%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.58%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.56% at $68.87/bbl, and Brent was down 1.52% at $72.56/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices fell after two days of gains as U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose, offsetting Middle East tensions and the potential impacts of a U.S. interest rate cut.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.43% at $2.314.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.14% at $2,595.75, Silver fell 0.26% to $30.898, and Copper rose 0.59% to $4.2980.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.12%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.11%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.75, the USD/JPY was down 0.49% to 141.72, and the USD/AUD declined 0.36% to 1.4746.</li>
<li>The dollar gave up some of its overnight gains, especially against the yen, as traders reconsidered the chances of a big Federal Reserve rate cut. Strong U.S. retail sales data reduced the need for aggressive easing, while bond yields increased slightly.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia

Eurozone

Futures

Commodities

Forex

ADIV

AGOV

ASHR

BBEU

BOIL

CQQQ

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

EEMA

FLAX

CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust

IEMG

IEUR

KraneShares Trust KraneShares S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF

KDIV

SPEM

USDU

Asia Mostly Up, Europe Mixed; Gold Gains As And Dollar Softens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the decision set for release on Wednesday <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40878710/investors-bet-on-50-basis-point-rate-cut-wall-street-analysts-urge-caution-this-is-">at 2 p.m. ET.</a>
The central bank has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5% since September 2023 and this week&#8217;s rate reduction would be the first since March 2020, signaling a marked shift from the restrictive monetary policy stance implemented to combat soaring inflation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rate Cut Expectations: Will The Fed Opt For 25 Or 50 Basis Points?</h3>
The key question on everyone&#8217;s mind is the magnitude of the rate cut. Will the Fed opt for a cautious 25-basis-point reduction, or will it make a bolder move with a 50-basis-point cut, as seen at the start of previous rate-cutting cycles?
Market sentiment currently differs from Wall Street economist consensus. Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a 50-basis-point cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool.
Among Wall Street analysts, instead, there is an overwhelming consensus on a more conservative 25-basis-point reduction, but JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. stands out as the notable exception, forecasting a 50-basis-point cut.
According to the biggest U.S. bank, interest rates are about 150 basis points above neutral levels. Therefore, a 25-basis-point cut per meeting would take almost a year to align the policy back to a neutral stance. 
This strengthens the case for frontloading rate cuts at the start of the cycle, particularly given that, in hindsight, a July commencement might have been more appropriate.
Regardless of whether the Fed chooses a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction, analysts expect a series of cuts to continue through 2024 and 2025.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Moves Ahead of the Rate Cut: Top 10 ETFs Investors Bought Last Week</h3>
In the week leading up to this highly anticipated rate cut, investors reshuffled their portfolios, resulting in significant inflows into various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that may indicate a strategic tilt toward assets poised to benefit from a lower interest rate environment.
To identify these trends, Benzinga analyzed data from VettaFi&#8217;s etfdb.com, and found that investors displayed a strong preference for value-oriented ETFs. 
Notable among these were the iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EFV#NYSE">EFV</a>) and SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPYV#NYSE">SPYV</a>), signaling a tilt towards assets that may offer stability and a defensive hedge as the macro regime shifts.
As a traditional beneficiary of lower interest rates, gold has also been on investors&#8217; radar, with prices repeatedly hitting record highs over the last week, supported by strong inflows into the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). 
Also worth noting is the interest in the tech sector, particularly semiconductors, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>) seeing substantial inflows.
Additionally, investors pursued speculative and leveraged strategies on the Nasdaq 100, likely interpreted as a bet to the rising chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut. 
Investors bought into both ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QLD#NYSE">QLD</a>), which aims to deliver twice the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100, and the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TQQQ#NYSE">TQQQ</a>), which targets three times the daily performance of the index.
Rounding out the list, the popular small-cap fund iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) attracted over half a billion dollars in inflows last week, signaling investors&#8217; growing interest in smaller, domestically-focused companies as they are poised to benefit from declining borrowing costs.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>1 Week Inflows ($MM)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF</td>
<td>$1,135.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPLG#NYSE">SPLG</a>)</td>
<td>$820.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VCIT#NYSE">VCIT</a>)</td>
<td>$818.30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Portfolio S&amp;P 500 Value ETF</td>
<td>$775.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</td>
<td>$717.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>$698.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares</td>
<td>$648.41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares Ultra QQQ</td>
<td>$646.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares UltraPro QQQ</td>
<td>$560.15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF </td>
<td>$552.24</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40903154/13-etfs-to-own-as-fed-set-to-cut-rates-analysts-highlight-utilities-real-estate-and">13 ETFs To Own As Fed Set To Cut Rates: Analysts Highlight Utilities, Real Estate, And More</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Bonds

SPLG

SPYV

TQQQ

VCIT

10 ETFs Investors Secretly Bought Before The Fed's Make-Or-Break Interest Rate Call

Gold is back in the spotlight, and eyes are on the Fed. As the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for what could be an aggressive rate cut, gold ETFs, especially the gold-bullion tracking ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>), are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">riding the wave</a>.
Gold prices, already hovering near record highs, are inching closer to a breakthrough that could send the precious metal into uncharted territory.
With the dollar softening, the allure of gold as a safe haven has only intensified. Year-to-date, the GLD has surged nearly 25% and the IAU has gained about 25%, outpacing broader market indices like the S&amp;P 500 (which is up 18% in comparison). While physical gold-tracking ETFs have been surging, ETFs tracking gold miners haven&#8217;t been left behind.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) is up about 27% YTD and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) is up 28% YTD.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Shines on Dovish Fed, Weaker Dollar</h1>
Investors seem unfazed by today's slight lull in prices — understandable, given the anticipation of a possible 50-basis-point rate cut. The weakening dollar, compounded by the Fed&#8217;s dovish tone, is creating the perfect storm for gold to shine even brighter.
Behind the scenes, central banks and institutional buyers have been steadily piling into gold, boosting its momentum. Over the past three months, gold-tracking ETFs have drawn in billions in inflows, with retail investors now jumping on board, hoping to capitalize on the metal's momentum.
The net inflows into these ETFs signal that many see more upside ahead, especially as the Fed's anticipated rate cuts could push yields lower, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40862122/rate-cut-prospects-fuel-investor-risk-appetite-gold-hits-record-highs-harris-outperforms-trump-t">Rate-Cut Prospects Fuel Investor Risk Appetite, Gold Hits Record Highs, Harris Outperforms Trump: This Week In The Markets</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Emerging As A Preferred Hedge</h1>
The macroeconomic backdrop has added extra fuel to the rally. From rising geopolitical tensions to global economic uncertainties, investors are seeking shelter, and gold is emerging as their preferred hedge. The metal's safe-haven appeal is being bolstered by fears of economic slowdowns, not just in the U.S. but globally. 
China's persistent economic struggles, for example, are only adding to the demand for gold, as investors diversify away from riskier assets.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What Could Temper Gold Bulls?</h1>
While a rate cut seems all but certain, there are still factors that could keep a lid on gold's upside. Any sign of a more conservative move by the Fed, such as a smaller-than-expected cut, could temper bullish enthusiasm. 
There's also the possibility that stronger-than-expected economic data could boost the dollar, muting gold's rally.
For now, though, the combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows and weakening dollar dynamics makes gold an attractive option for those looking to ride out market volatility.
With the potential for gold to push through its previous highs, investors are watching closely to see if the Fed's next move will give the precious metal the final nudge it needs.
Will gold soar to new heights, or will a more cautious Fed decision put the brakes on the rally? The only thing certain is that, for now, gold is shining brighter than ever.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40891378/ahead-of-fomc-meeting-paul-krugman-says-fed-rates-will-be-elevated-even-with-50-bps">Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Paul Krugman Says Fed Rates Will Be Elevated Even With 50 Bps Cut: &#8216;Argument For Incrementalism Is Very Weak&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Specialty ETFs

Trading Ideas

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

GDXJ

Gold ETFs Poised For Liftoff: Can The Fed's Rate Cut Propel Prices To New Heights?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-17_08h24_10.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Against Prevailing Wisdom</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-microsoft-buyback-trump-crypto-plan-msft-mc-09172024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after touching the low band of the support zone, MSFT stock has moved up in a straight line.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move up in the early trade on three announcements:
<ul>
<li>Microsoft is announcing a new $60B stock buyback program.&nbsp; This matches the largest buyback program ever from Microsoft.</li>
<li>Microsoft is increasing the dividend by 10%.</li>
<li>Microsoft is introducing more AI features in Office 365 and a new collaborative tool named Copilot Pages.&nbsp; This new tool allows users to collaborate and edit data taken from Copilot on a single page. The company is also introducing a new agent builder allowing users to build AI powered agents.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Microsoft is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. The Arora Report has just issued a new buy zone.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing the news from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) as return to normalcy after the pandemic – Amazon will require workers to be at the office five days a week.</li>
<li>The stock market is running as Wall Street positions for a 50 bps rate cut. 50 bps rate cut has now become the prevailing wisdom.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the data just released is very important because it is the last piece of economic data that the FOMC is going to see before making its rate decision tomorrow.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the just released retail sales data does not support a 50 bps cut. &nbsp;Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.1% vs. -0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Prior retail sales were revised to 1.1% from 1.0%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in AMZN, MSFT, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Trump has released details of his crypto project. The project is called World Liberty Financial.  63% of the coins will be bought by the public, 20% will be owned by the founding team, and 17% will be for user rewards.
The release of Trump's crypto project details is bringing in buying in all cryptos, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Biggest Even Microsoft Buyback, New Retail Sales Go Against Prevailing Wisdom, Trump Crypto Project

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) reinforced its bullish outlook on gold, citing increased central bank demand and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve" rel="noreferrer noopener">interest rate cut</a> tomorrow.
"While we see some tactical downside to gold prices under our economists' base case of a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday, we reiterate our long gold trading recommendation and our price target of $2,700/oz by early 2025," the investment bank said in a note.
With the price of gold making new all-time highs, reaching 2589.60 on the spot market, the two-quarter upside price target of 5% doesn't seem much. At the moment, the market is pricing a 65% chance of a 50-basis-point cut tomorrow, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&amp;q=cme+fed+watchtool" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> the CME FedWatch tool.
Now read:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40861213/why-interest-rate-cuts-wont-automatically-boost-the-stock-market" rel="noreferrer noopener"> Why Interest Rate Cuts Won't Automatically Boost The Stock Market</a>
Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. With the U.S. recession still in discussion and a Fed pivot toward more accommodative monetary policies, investor interest in gold is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40689742/goldman-sachs-bullish-on-gold-wall-street-giant-targets-2-700-by-early-2025-driven-" rel="noreferrer noopener">expected to remain strong</a>, accompanied by buying from foreign central banks, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/05/38649656/how-chinas-central-bank-gold-buying-frenzy-drove-prices-to-record-highs-attracting-gen-z-to-gold-bea" rel="noreferrer noopener">particularly China</a>.
The Fed's anticipated rate cuts could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40861213/why-interest-rate-cuts-wont-automatically-boost-the-stock-market" rel="noreferrer noopener">lower bond yields</a>, making gold more attractive as it does not generate interest.
In contrast to its positive gold outlook, the bank recently downgraded its projection for iron ore prices. The bank slashed its fourth-quarter 2024 forecast by $15 per metric ton, lowering it to $85 due to concerns of oversupply despite stabilizing demand from China.
Despite China's attempts at economic stimulus and rising steel demand, the broader economic slowdown and the real estate crisis have dampened demand for iron ore. Its futures briefly dipped below $90, reaching the lowest point in almost two years.
Goldman noted that while there might be short-term support due to restocking ahead of the holiday week in October, but the continued buildup of iron ore inventories is likely to drive prices further down.
Supply-demand imbalances have been a key issue for the market, particularly with major players like Brazil's Vale and Australia's BHP maintaining production levels.
Kallanish Consulting analyst Ian Roper explained the current price dynamics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/09/11/iron-ore-tests-floor-as-plunge-to-90-a-ton-puts-mines-at-risk/" rel="noreferrer noopener">for</a> Bloomberg.
"We need to eliminate about 100 million tons to balance this market, and to do that, we need prices to settle in the $80s," he noted.
Also read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40875211/bhp-group-sounds-alarm-on-copper-supply-ai-and-ev-growth-could-drive-prices-soaring-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BHP Group Sounds Alarm on Copper Supply, AI and EV Growth Could Drive Prices Soaring: Report</a></li>
</ul>
Benzinga Mining is the bridge between mining companies and retail investors. Reach out to <a href="mailto:licensing@benzinga.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">licensing@benzinga.com</a> to get started!
Image via Shutterstock

Guidance

AAAU

GLDM

PICK

Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Etf

REMX

SGOL

SILJ

SLVP

Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Higher, Takes A Downbeat Stance On Iron Ore

On Monday, September 16, U.S. markets closed mixed as the S&amp;P 500 edged higher while the Nasdaq fell, weighed by declines in technology stocks.
Apple dropped on lower-than-expected iPhone 16 demand, impacting chipmakers Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron, pushing the semiconductor index down.
In economic data, The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 11.5 in September, the highest since April 2022, exceeding August&#8217;s -4.7 and forecasts of -3.9.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by communication, financials, energy, and materials, while information technology and consumer discretionary stocks declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.55% and closed at 41,622.08. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.13% at 5,633.09, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.52%, finishing the session at 17,592.13.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session lower by 1.03% at 36,204.50, led by losses in the Gas &amp; Water, Services, and Pharmaceutical Industry sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.24% at 8,140.90, led by gains in the IT, A-REITs and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.12% at 25,414.65, and the Nifty 500 was down by 0.01% at 23,968.25.</li>
<li>China markets closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session higher by 1.37% at 17,660.02.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.86%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.81%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.79%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.77%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.42% at $68.72/bbl, and Brent was down 0.51% at $72.39/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices held steady after rising over $1 in the previous session. Traders balanced concerns over U.S. production disruptions from Hurricane Francine, falling U.S. crude stockpiles, and weaker demand in China. Focus also turned to the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy meeting, with expectations of a rate cut potentially boosting oil demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was flat at $2.2371.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.29% at $2,601.15, Silver fell 0.34% to $31.030, and Copper rose 0.16% to $4.2805.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.23%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.54%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.13% to 100.63, USD/JPY was up 0.03% at 140.64, and USD/AUD declined 0.16% to 1.4787.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Emerging Markets

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Advances; Crude Oil Steady While Gold Holds Above $2,600 - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-16_08h12_24.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Silver Is The New AI Play</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-silver-new-ai-play-slv-mc-09162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart is a monthly chart to give you the long term perspective.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, silver has the potential to become an AI play.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Silver is extensively used in electronics that go into AI data centers.</li>
<li>AI data centers are power hungry.&nbsp; Some data centers are being built next to huge solar farms.&nbsp; Silver is used in solar cells.&nbsp; First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) is the leader in utility scale solar farms.&nbsp; As full disclosure, First Solar is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Silver also moves with gold.&nbsp; We have previously shared with readers that gold has hit a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that silver is far from a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows the resistance zone.&nbsp; If the resistance zone is broken, silver can go much higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trader magnet for silver.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that silver is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought commodities tend to pullback.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street positioning in silver is very low.&nbsp; This can lead to an explosive up move once the move starts going.&nbsp; Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Investors who learn Wall Street mechanics gain important edges.&nbsp; It is difficult to learn the nuances of Wall Street mechanics because Wall Street professionals keep these nuances close to the chest due to their very high value.&nbsp; </li>
<li>The move in silver will come down to three factors:
<ul>
<li>If the Fed lowers rates by 25 bps or 50 bps</li>
<li>How gold reacts to the Fed</li>
<li>Does a short squeeze start in silver? &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, silver is prone to short squeezes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The move in silver in 2021 was the result of silver becoming a meme crowd favorite and the resulting short squeeze.</li>
<li>The Arora Report gold and silver ratings are used across the globe by individual investors, hedge funds, institutions, bullion dealers, and jewelers.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that The Arora Report gave a back up the truck and buy silver signal when silver was in the $17 range. The Arora Report gave a sell signal on silver hours before silver peaked.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Not only that, right at the peak around $50, The Arora Report gave a signal to short sell signal and gave a target for silver to fall to $34 in a matter of weeks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Silver ETF SLV is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Last week a big weekly reversal occurred in S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; Last week was one of the best weeks.&nbsp; The prior week was one of the worst weeks.&nbsp; Since 1957, there have been 10 such reversals when the stock market was near a high.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 has been higher an average of 5.2% over the next three months 90% of the time.</li>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) is falling today after Ming-Chi Kuo said that demand for the iPhone 16 is lower than expected.&nbsp; In the past, analysis from Ming-Chi Kuo has almost always proven spot on.</li>
<li>This is a Fed week.&nbsp; FOMC will announce its decision at 2pm ET on Wednesday.</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is buying, but some selling is coming in tech stocks on Ming-Chi Kuo's report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing light selling.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

FSLR

Silver Is The New AI Play – Trader Magnet Is Much Higher, Fed Week

On Friday, September 13th, U.S. markets closed higher as rising bets on a potential 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted optimism. Small-cap stocks, particularly sensitive to rate changes, outperformed as hopes for a larger cut increased.
Economic data released indicated that consumer prices grew by 2.5% year over year, while wholesale prices rose 0.2% month over month in August.
All S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by communication services, utilities, and industrial stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.72% and closed at 41,393.78. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.54% at 5,626.00, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.65%, finishing the session at 17,683.98.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>Japan markets closed for Respect for the Aged Day holiday.</li>
<li>On Monday, Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.27%, ending the session at 8,121.60, led by gains in the Telecoms Services, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.11%, closing at 25,383.75, while the Nifty 500 closed higher by 0.17%, at 23,968.20.</li>
<li>China markets closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session higher by 0.31% at 17,422.12.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.02%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.19%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.06%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.11%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.40% at $68.02/bbl, and Brent was up 0.28% at $71.81/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut. Gains were capped by concerns over weak Chinese economic data and lingering demand worries despite supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.48% to $2.294.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.04% at $2,612.00, Silver gained 0.70% to $31.297, and Copper slid 0.11% to $4.2310.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.13%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.41% to 100.70, the USD/JPY was down 0.42% to 140.22, and the USD/AUD declined 0.49% to 1.4840.</li>
<li>The dollar weakened as expectations grew for an oversized rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The yen surged to its highest level in over a year, while Treasury yields fell in anticipation of a potential 50-basis-point cut. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada are also in focus.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Gold Clocks New High While Dollar Weakens; Asia And Europe Markets Mixed - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Wall Street is experiencing a risk-on session Friday, with all sectors of the S&amp;P 500 index trading in the green as traders are energized by the now-imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, expected in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">less than a week.</a>
Both the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are on track for their fifth consecutive session of gains, pushing their weekly performances to 4% and 5.7%, respectively, and fully recouping last week&#8217;s losses.
Friday saw small-cap stocks build significant momentum, once again outperforming their large-cap counterparts amid the euphoria over the anticipated Fed rate cuts.
A large overnight bet by a trader on a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut sent the 2-year Treasury yield down by 7 basis points to 3.58%. This puts it on track to close at its lowest level since September 12, 2022. 
Market-implied probabilities for a half-point cut surged to as high as 43%, according to CME FedWatch data. 
Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), continues to extend its historic highs, rising by 1%. Meanwhile, silver has roared ahead with a 3.3% gain, bringing its weekly performance to a stunning 16%, marking its best week since April 2020.
The rally in precious metals has been a boon for miners. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) has extended its weekly gains beyond 10%, its best performance since March 2023.
Oil prices are cooling off, slipping by 0.4% after Thursday&#8217;s sharp rally. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin gained 2.2%, climbing to $59,400 and is on track to close at its highest level since late August.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,182.68</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>41,355.75</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,620.96</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,484.48</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:45 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?">Benzinga Pro</a> data: 
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.4% higher to $561.37.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.7% to $414.78.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) inched 0.2% higher to $474.18.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 2.4% to $216.84.</li>
<li>Both the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) and the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) outperformed, up 1.2%. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) showed the smallest gains, up 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) fell over 9%, despite reporting better-than-expected results last quarter, as revenue guidance missed forecasts. </li>
<li>Boeing Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) dropped 3.8% after 33,000 union workers launched a strike on Friday, rejecting the company's proposed four-year contract amid ongoing challenges at the aircraft manufacturer.</li>
<li>United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) gained nearly 2% after announcing an agreement with SpaceX to equip its fleet with Starlink&#8217;s high-speed Wi-Fi service.</li>
<li>Warner Bros Discovery Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBD#NASDAQ">WBD</a>) rose over 9%, on track for the strongest 2-day rally since 2008, after announcing a multi-year partnership with Charter Communications Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CHTR#NYSE">CHTR</a>). </li>
<li>Garmin Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GRMN#NYSE">GRMN</a>) dropped more than 6% after Barclays downgraded the stock from &#8216;Equal-Weight&#8217; to &#8216;Underweight&#8217; and slashed the price target from $181 to $133 per share.</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/09/40857449/consumer-morale-hits-4-month-high-inflation-expectations-ease-partisan-gaps-in-sentiment-inched-up">Consumer Morale Hits 4-Month High, Inflation Expectations Ease: &#8216;Partisan Gaps In Sentiment Inched Up&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Mid Cap

ADBE

CHTR

GRMN

XLRE

Wall Street Aims For Fifth Straight Gain, Small Caps Soar As 2-Year Yields Hit 2-Year Lows, Adobe Sinks: What's Driving Markets Friday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-13_08h58_01.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Running On 50 bps Rumor</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-gold-new-high-50-bps-cut-gld-mc-09132024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when gold broke out back in March.</li>
<li>The chart shows a new breakout in gold.&nbsp; Gold is hitting an all time high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout is on higher volume.&nbsp; This shows conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that gold is approaching the overbought level but is not yet there.</li>
<li>The chart shows the support zone.&nbsp; How gold reacts if it pulls back into the support zone will be a tell.</li>
<li>Long time readers of The Arora Report have very large gains in gold.&nbsp; The Arora Report's track record on gold is unmatched.&nbsp; The Arora Report gave a signal to back up the truck and buy gold when gold was in the $600 range.&nbsp; When gold reached $1904 in 2011, The Arora Report gave a signal to sell half of gold holdings and put a stop on the remaining gold at $1757.&nbsp; Gold topped out on the same day that The Arora Report gave a sell signal and fell to about $1000.&nbsp; During the fall in gold, readers of The Arora Report made a lot of money by short selling gold.&nbsp; The Arora Report signals caught the bottom in gold and have since been mostly bullish.</li>
<li>Due to positioning, gold can go much higher. &nbsp;Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Learning about Wall Street's mechanics gives investors several big edges.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, gold ETF GLD is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp; Silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) and gold miner Newmont Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) are in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the latest breakout in gold is due to a rumor of a 50 bps interest rate cut taking hold.&nbsp; If the Fed does not cut by 50 basis points, there may be a pullback in gold.&nbsp; A pullback will be a buying opportunity.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The same 50 bps cut rumor drove stocks, especially AI stocks, higher yesterday.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Among earnings of note, Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) earnings were below whisper numbers as it is taking longer for Adobe's AI products to gain traction compared to expectations in the market.&nbsp; Also of note are earnings from RH (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RH#NYSE">RH</a>), the high end home furnishing company. RH earnings show that the consumer at the high end is resilient and spending.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and negative in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is GLD.  The most popular ETF for silver is SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Gold Breaks To A New High And Can Go Much Higher, Stocks And Gold Running On 50 BPS Cut

<ul>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>BA</li>
<li>MADE</li>
<li>WAY</li>
<li>LOT</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>TUA</li>
<li>AI</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

MADE

Simplify Exchange Traded Funds Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of September 13, 2024 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

On Thursday, Sept. 12, U.S. markets closed higher as expectations grew for a Federal Reserve rate cut, driven by inflation data signaling a likely 25-basis point reduction. Strong tech stock performance lifted the Nasdaq, while Moderna&#8217;s weak revenue forecast led the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s losses. The European Central Bank also announced a rate cut.
According to economic data, U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% in August, exceeding market expectations, while initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 to 230,000 for the week ending Sept. 7.
All 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by the gain in communication services. Energy and consumer discretionary stocks also posted significant gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.58% and closed at 41,096.77. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.75% at 5,595.76, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.00%, finishing the session at 17,569.68.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed lower by 0.78% at 36,568.00, led by losses in the Marine Transport, Food and Transportation Equipment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.30%, ending the session at 8,099.90, led by gains in the Gold, Metals &amp; Mining and Materials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.10% at 25,363.55and Nifty 500 was higher by 0.17% at 23,948.05.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.48%, ending the session at 2,704.09, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.42%, closing at 3,159.25.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session higher by 0.75% at 17,369.09.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.30%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX rose 0.49%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.34%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.12%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.13% at $69.75/bbl, and Brent was up 0.99% at $72.66/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rallied on Friday, driven by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Francine. A weaker U.S. dollar and supply issues also supported the gains.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 1.02% to $2.381.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.75% at $2,599.90, Silver gained 1.29% to $30.495, and Copper gained 0.56% to $4.2185.</li>
<li>Gold hit a record high, driven by shifting expectations for a larger Federal Reserve rate cut.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.14%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.08%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.41% to 100.95, USD/JPY was down 0.98% at 140.40, and USD/AUD declined 0.07% to 1.4863.</li>
<li>The dollar dropped to its lowest level this year against the yen amid rising expectations for a larger Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar index also fell to a one-week low as hawkish comments from Bank of Japan officials supported the yen.</li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Crude Gains On Supply Disruptions, Gold Hits Record High And Dollar Hits One Week Low - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-12_08h30_57.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Human-Like Reasoning AI Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ppi-openai-strawberry-nvda-mc-09122024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that last week NVDA stock touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA was oversold when it touched the top band of the support zone.&nbsp; Oversold stocks tend to bounce.&nbsp; The chart shows this is exactly what was happening until yesterday.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In the early trade, the momo crowd is ignoring the data and aggressively buying the slight dip in AI stocks.&nbsp; The buying in AI stocks is due to front running a speech by Nvidia&#8217;s Jensen Huang.&nbsp; The buying is especially aggressive in Nvidia (NVDA).
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>When Jensen Huang did not say anything new to run up NVDA stock, NVDA stock pulled back.&nbsp; After NVDA stock pulled back, a new momo guru narrative started taking hold.&nbsp; We wrote yesterday in a post in ZYX Buy and ZYX Allocation:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">This afternoon, the momo crowd is again extremely aggressively buying semiconductor stocks as momo gurus&#8217; new narrative takes hold.&nbsp; Momo gurus have all but anointed Harris as the next president after last night&#8217;s debate performance.&nbsp; Momo gurus&#8217; new narrative is that Harris will not be harsh on China like Trump, and there will be no tariffs.&nbsp; This will provide an opportunity for semiconductor companies to sell more semiconductors to China.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>We also wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In The Arora Report analysis, there are two major problems with the new momo guru narrative:
<ul>
<li>It is premature to anoint Harris as the next president.</li>
<li>Even if Harris is elected president, she is not going to give away AI technology to China.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>As NVDA stock started moving up, analysts started reminding investors of the regurgitation of high demand from Huang's speech and that Blackwell is coming.&nbsp; This brought in additional buying.</li>
<li>The chart shows that when NVDA stock broke above the mini support zone (previously mini resistance zone).</li>
<li>As NVDA stock broke above the top band of the mini support zone, technical analysts started declaring the correction in NVDA over.&nbsp; This brought in extremely aggressive buying in NVDA and other AI stocks going into the close.</li>
<li>In the early trade prior to the release of PPI data, buying in NVDA and other AI stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Arm Holdings PLC &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) was very aggressive.</li>
<li>After release of PPI data, some selling is coming in to take advantage of the strength.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with you that CPI was hotter than expected.&nbsp; This morning Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, after hotter PPI data, it will be safer for the Fed to not cut rates in September and wait for more data before cutting rates in October.&nbsp; Further, in The Arora Report analysis, the Fed should definitely not cut interest rates by 50 bps.&nbsp; Hotter inflation data is a negative for the stock market.&nbsp; However, right now, the momo crowd is oblivious and aggressively buying stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>New AI developments are exciting, but investors need to do a 360 degree analysis.</li>
<li>Jobless claims came at 230K vs. 229K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.&nbsp; Jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">ten categories</a>.&nbsp; In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-3/">click here</a> to see how this is achieved.&nbsp; One of the reasons behind The Arora Report's unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.&nbsp; Most models on Wall Street are static.&nbsp; They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.</li>
<li>Adding to the excitement this morning is that OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is about to release a new AI model called Strawberry.&nbsp; Strawberry is capable of some human-like reasoning.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>OpenAI's valuation has now vaulted to $150B.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This is inline with the consensus.
The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe has now widened, putting pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was seeing buying with tech stocks prior to the release of PPI data.&nbsp; However, after the release of PPI data, selling has come into bitcoin.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AMAT

AVGO

Human-Like Reasoning 'Strawberry' Ahead, Aggressive Nvidia Buying, Hotter Inflation Data

A broadly softer-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report triggered market shifts on Thursday, driving down the value of the dollar and Treasury yields while boosting gold prices to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">a new all-time high. </a>
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures ticked upward, signaling a potential fourth consecutive session of gains for U.S. stocks.
Economic data released Thursday showed the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand slowing to 1.7% year-over-year in August, below market expectations of 1.8% and down from July's downwardly revised 2.1%. On a monthly basis, PPI increased by 0.2%, surpassing the forecasted 0.1% and improving from the revised flat reading for July.
Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at 2.4% year-over-year, slightly underperforming the expected 2.5%. On a month-to-month basis, core PPI rebounded with a 0.3% rise, up from the previous month's 0.2% decline and surpassing expectations of a 0.2% increase.
In parallel, weekly initial jobless claims came in at 230,000, in line with market forecasts, signaling stable labor market conditions.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points, marking the second reduction since June. The ECB justified the move as part of its efforts to moderate monetary policy. 
The ECB kept its inflation outlook steady but revised its growth forecasts downward. The central bank emphasized a data-dependent approach for future decisions, with no commitment to further rate cuts.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Market reactions to the U.S. data were relatively muted. Rate-cut expectations for the Federal Reserve's meeting next week remained stable, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut holding firm at 85%. 
<ul>
<li>U.S. Treasury yields softened, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 0.2% as yields slightly decreased.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), slipped 0.1%. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), traded 0.2% higher in the premarket, as of 9:05 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>Tech stocks, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), were 0.1% higher.</li>
<li>Small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), rose 0.4%.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) was the top-performing S&amp;P 500 sector in the premarket, up 0.6%.</li>
<li>Gold prices, monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose by 1.1% to 2,538 per ounce.</li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose 1.3%.</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40794070/exclusive-lazard-small-cap-expert-predicts-30-50-russell-2000-rally-on-the-back-of-">EXCLUSIVE: Lazard Small-Cap Expert Predicts 30%-50% Russell 2000 Rally On The Back Of Lower Interest Rates (UPDATED)</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Gold Reaches Record High As Dollar Weakens On Soft Producer Inflation Data; Wall Street Eyes Fourth Day Of Gains

The euro came under pressure on Tuesday after the German ZEW Survey's Economic Growth Expectations Index for September rose more than expected and hit an 11-month low.

Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs - Wednesday, September 18

The Commodity Bull Market Is Fast Approaching (Technical Analysis)

The Federal Reserve has the fate of the gold markets in its hands today its influence may wane as central bank buying around the globe continues to be strong.

In the Fed's Hands - Manic Metals Report

Amid market volatility, investors seeking defensive options may consider robust ETFs like SPDR Gold (GLD), The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU), and Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund (VDC). These ETFs are known for their stable demand and steady returns, making them attractive even during volatile market conditions. Read more... During market volatility, ETFs in gold, commodities, utilities, and consumer staples often perform well because they represent safer, defensive investments. Gold and commodities act as inflation hedges, while utilities and consumer staples offer stability since they provide essential services and goods that remain in demand regardless of economic conditions.
To that end, SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/GLD/">GLD</a>), The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/XLU/">XLU</a>), and Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/VDC/">VDC</a>) could be great choices to hedge against market volatility.
Amid <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/03/investing/us-stocks-first-day-september/index.html">September's uncertainty</a>, the utility sector remains attractive for its defensive nature and resilience in volatile markets, as it provides essential services like electricity and water. Consumer staples such as food, beverages, and household goods also see steady demand. With expected <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-august-2024-09-11/">interest rate cuts</a>, utility and consumer-focused ETFs may offer stability, appealing to risk-averse investors seeking consistent returns.
Furthermore, <a href="https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/gold-investing-outlook/#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20gold%20prices%20have,China%2C%20India%2C%20and%20Turkey.">gold performs well</a> in volatile markets due to its role as a safe-haven asset. It offers portfolio diversification, serves as a store of value, and hedges against systemic risks and inflation.
Given this backdrop, let's evaluate the aforementioned ETF picks for protection against volatility this September.
SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/GLD/">GLD</a>)
GLD is an exchange-traded fund launched and managed by World Gold Trust Services, LLC. The fund invests in commodity markets, specifically in gold. It tracks the performance of the price of gold bullion. SPDR Gold Trust was formed on November 12, 2004, and is domiciled in the United States. The investment seeks to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, minus the expenses of the Trust's operations.
With $70.18 billion in AUM, the fund has a total of one holding Gold with 100% weighting.
GLD has an expense ratio of 0.40%, lower than the category average of 0.48%. It currently has a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nav.asp">NAV</a> of $237.98. Its fund inflows came in at $4.36 billion over the past six months.
GLD has gained 33.1% over the past year and 26.9% over the past nine months to close the last trading session at $237.34.
GLD's strong outlook is reflected in its <a href="https://stocknews.com/powr-ratings/">POWR Ratings</a>. The ETF has an overall rating of A, translating to a Strong Buy in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by considering 118 different factors, each weighted to an optimal degree.
It has an A grade for Buy &amp; Hold and Trade and a B for Peer. It is ranked first out of 38 ETFs in the <a href="https://stocknews.com/category/precious-metals-etfs/">Precious Metals ETFs</a> group. To see all the POWR Ratings for GLD, <a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/GLD/">click here</a>.
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/XLU/">XLU</a>)
XLU is an exchange-traded fund launched by State Street Global Advisors, Inc. It is managed by SSGA Funds Management, Inc. It invests in the public equity markets of the United States, specifically in stocks of companies operating across the utilities sector. It invests in both growth and value stocks of companies with diversified market capitalizations. The fund seeks to track the performance of the Utilities Select Sector Index by using a full replication technique.
With $18.48 billion in assets under management (AUM), XLU's top holding is NextEra Energy, Inc. (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/NEE/">NEE</a>) with a 14.61% weighting, followed by Southern Company (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/SO/">SO</a>), with an 8.22% weighting, and Duke Energy Corporation (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/DUK/">DUK</a>) with 7.61% weighting. It has a total of 33 holdings.
XLU has an expense ratio of 0.09%, lower than the category average of 0.44%. It currently has a NAV of $78.53. Its fund inflows came in at $3.12 billion over the past six months.
The ETF pays an annual dividend of $2.19, which yields 2.77% on the current price. It has a four-year average dividend yield of 3.09%. Its dividend payouts have increased at a CAGR of 3.6% over the past three years and 3.5% over the past five years.
XLU has gained 24.9% over the year-to-date and 24.6% over the past six months to close the last trading session at $79.08.
XLU's POWR Ratings reflect this promising outlook. XLU's overall A rating equates to a Strong Buy in our proprietary rating system.
XLU has an A grade for Buy &amp; Hold, Peer, and Trade. Of the 13 ETFs in the B-rated <a href="https://stocknews.com/category/utility-etfs/">Utility ETFs</a> group, it is ranked first. <a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/XLU/">Click here</a> to access all of XLU's POWR Ratings.
Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/VDC/">VDC</a>)
VDC is an exchange-traded fund launched and managed by The Vanguard Group, Inc. The fund invests in the public equity markets of the United States, focusing on stocks of companies operating in the consumer staples sector. It invests in growth and value stocks across diversified market capitalizations. The fund seeks to track the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Index (IMI)/Consumer Staples 25/50 by using the full replication technique.
With $7.31 billion in assets under management (AUM), VDC's top holding is Procter &amp; Gamble Company (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/PG/">PG</a>) with an 11.48% weighting, followed by Costco Wholesale Corporation (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/COST/">COST</a>), with a 10.90% weighting, and Walmart Inc. (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/WMT/">WMT</a>), with 8.78%. It has a total of 106 holdings.
VDC has an expense ratio of 0.10%, lower than the category average of 0.46%. It currently has a NAV of $220.64. Its fund inflows came in at $169.82 million over the past three months.
VDC pays an annual dividend of $5.22, which yields 2.38% on the current price. It has a four-year average dividend yield of 2.41%. Its dividend payouts have increased at a CAGR of 5.7% over the past three years and 7.4% over the past five years.
VDC has gained 8.2% over the year-to-date and 21.4% over the past nine months to close the last trading session at $219.79.
VDC's POWR Ratings reflect its promising prospects. The ETF's overall A rating equates to a Strong Buy in our proprietary rating system.
VDC has an A grade for Buy &amp; Hold, Peer, and Trade. In the B-rated <a href="https://stocknews.com/category/consumer-focused-etfs/">Consumer-Focused ETFs</a> group, it is ranked #3 out of 48 ETFs. <a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/VDC/">Click here</a> to access all of VDC's POWR Ratings.
What To Do Next?
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<hr />
GLD shares were trading at $237.59 per share on Wednesday afternoon, up $0.25 (+0.11%). Year-to-date, GLD has gained 24.28%, versus a 19.37% rise in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index during the same period.
<hr><div style="clear:both;"></div> <h2>About the Author: Abhishek Bhuyan</h2> <img src='https:/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ABhuyan.jpg' style="float:left; padding:5px;width:125px;">Abhishek embarked on his professional journey as a financial journalist due to his keen interest in discerning the fundamental factors that influence the future performance of financial instruments.<a href="https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=abhishek-bhuyan">More...</a>The post <a href=https://stocknews.com/news/gld-xlu-vdc-3-etfs-to-hedge-against-market-volatility/>3 ETFs to Hedge Against Market Volatility</a> appeared first on <a href=https://stocknews.com/>StockNews.com</a>

3 ETFs to Hedge Against Market Volatility

Gold jumps to record high before swinging to loss after Fed's jumbo rate cut

The Federal Reserve delivered its highly anticipated 50-basis point interest rate cut this afternoon.

Dow, S&P 500 Erase Gains Despite Robust Rate Cut

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts -

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - Fed Cut

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the $2,600 mark, or a fresh all-time peak touched the previous day.

Gold Price Regains Positive Traction Amid A Modest USD Pullback From One-Week High

Gold Vulnerable, Risks To Stay Long Now Outweigh The Reward (Technical Analysis)

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Precious metal prices are significantly influenced by investor sentiment, much like stocks and bonds. This can lead to routine price fluctuations, sometimes large and erratic, where the volatility can create both challenges and opportunities for investors. 

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SPDR Gold Trust

Overview

SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD), Quote.Headers.trade-ideas