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Islamic State attacks halted the pipeline&#39;s operations in 2014 which was responsible for about 0.5% of the world&#39;s oil supply. 

Iraq To Resume Oil Exports To Turkey Via Pipeline Shuttered A Decade Ago Amid Kurdish Negotiation Deadlock

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Croft added that Iran has the potential to repeat its playbook from 2019 when it allegedly attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil import and export. 

Analyst Warns Of &#39;Serious Escalatory Tit-For-Tat Cycle&#39; If Iran Strikes Back, Raising Fears Of &#39;Wider War&#39; In Middle East

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Commodities have been performing remarkably well this year, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely viewed measure of broad commodities prices, rising to its highest level since November. Most of the rally were driven by higher prices for oil, gold, and cocoa.


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Oil is trading higher despite a drop in US GDP. On Wednesday, EIA reported a draw in US crude inventories.

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API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 3.230M Barrel Draw vs 1.8M Barrel Build Est.

Oil is trading higher, possibly amid Middle East uncertainty. The Pentagon called on Iraq's government to take all necessary steps to defend US forces. US weekly crude stock data will also be released after the close today.

Oil is trading lower as concerns over Middle East tensions ease.

Oil is trading higher following Israel's strike on Iran, which has caused supply uncertainty in the Middle East.

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Oil is trading lower following a build in US crude inventories. Oil has also continued to drop following recent Iran-Israel tensions.

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Oil is trading lower despite Iran's recent attack on Israel. Oil gained last week in anticipation of Israel-Iran tensions.

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Oil is trading higher amid Israel-Iran fears, which have caused supply uncertainty.

Oil is trading lower as markets react to mixed inflation data this week, which has caused rate cut uncertainty and clouded demand outlook.

Oil is trading lower after the EIA cut its forecast for 2024 world demand growth.

In a significant development in the energy sector, Iraq is set to reactivate a previously dormant pipeline to Turkey, which could substantially impact regional oil exports and negotiations.
What Happened: Iraq is reviving a pipeline to Turkey, potentially exporting 350,000 barrels per day by month&#8217;s end, Reuters reported on Sunday. This move comes amid stalled negotiations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, inactive for a decade, offers an alternative to the KRG&#8217;s pipeline, which has been closed for a year. Baghdad views the KRG&#8217;s oil deals with foreign companies as illegal and demands that companies negotiate with the federal government for oil sales through the revived pipeline.
Islamic State attacks halted the pipeline&#8217;s operations in 2014. It was responsible for about 0.5% of the world&#8217;s oil supply. 
&#8220;Major crude pumping station with storage facilities has been completed,&#8221; said Basim Mohammed,  Iraqi deputy oil minister for upstream affairs, indicating the pipeline&#8217;s readiness to restart flows soon.
After an arbitration court ruling last year, the KRG&#8217;s pipeline was shut down, citing treaty violations. Discussions to reopen it have been complicated by conflicting demands from Turkey, the KRG, and the federal government.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/04/38104437/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-surge-despite-hawkish-remarks-from-fed-president-analysts-predic?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Surge Despite Hawkish Remarks From Fed President—Analysts Predict King Could Now Go Vertical With Several Critical Indicators In Alignment</a>
Despite the friction, the Kurds and Baghdad rely on each other politically and economically. Kurdish oil exports typically pass through a pipeline to Turkey. Early tests on the pipeline within Iraq revealed leaks, prompting accelerated repair efforts.
The current Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline agreement is set to expire in mid-2025, and the resumption of the old pipeline&#8217;s operations will be a key topic in the extension talks, according to a government energy adviser.
Why It Matters: As the global oil market grapples with tight supply and rising demand, the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline by Iraq could have significant implications. Earlier this month, oil prices were <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38073267/crude-prices-could-hit-95-this-summer-oil-is-fighting-the-fed-again">expected to potentially hit $95 per barrel</a> this summer due to these market conditions, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Moreover, the reestablishment of this route could alter the dynamics of regional oil politics, as Baghdad asserts its authority over oil exports, challenging the KRG&#8217;s independent oil deals.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/04/38107547/hertzs-mega-tesla-gamble-backfired-due-to-sky-high-repair-costs-unusually-high-accident-rates-an?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hertz&#8217;s Mega Tesla Gamble Backfired Due To Sky-High Repair Costs, Unusually High Accident Rates And Customers&#8217; Charging Anxiety, Report Reveals</a>
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Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Helima Croft predicts &#8220;serious Iranian retaliation&#8221; that could lead to broader regional conflict.
What Happened: On Thursday, Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, expressed concerns over the potential repercussions of the recent escalation in the Middle East.
During CNBC &#8220;Last Call,&#8221; Croft warned, &#8220;We are bracing for serious Iranian retaliation.&#8221;
&#8220;You could see a serious escalatory tit-for-tat cycle that leads to a wider war in the region.&#8221;
Croft added that Iran has the potential to repeat its playbook from 2019 when it allegedly attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil import and export. She expressed that Iran only needs to launch attacks on a few oil tankers to push the oil prices higher. 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">"We are bracing for serious Iranian retaliation," says <a href="https://twitter.com/CroftHelima?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CroftHelima</a> as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impact markets. "You could see a serious escalatory tit-for-tat cycle that leads to a wider war in the region." <a href="https://t.co/JusnMdXQ81">pic.twitter.com/JusnMdXQ81</a>
&mdash; Last Call (@LastCallCNBC) <a href="https://twitter.com/LastCallCNBC/status/1776026486765424854?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 4, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38062930/ross-gerber-blames-elon-musks-toxic-behavior-for-ev-makers-crappy-q1-sales-calls-fo?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&#8216;He Can't Even Tell He's An Idiot:&#8217; Elon Musk Furious As Ross Gerber Accuses Tesla CEO&#8217;s &#8216;Toxic&#8217; Behavior</a>
Why It Matters: The assassination of a top Iranian general by Israel has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/04/38049998/israel-kills-top-iranian-general-oil-rises-not-great-for-stock-markets-no-inflation-story">led to a spike in oil prices</a> and is negatively affecting stock markets as investors worry about the potential for inflation. This event has heightened concerns of a broader conflict, which could have far-reaching consequences for global markets. The situation is particularly tense as Iran has vowed revenge against Israel, causing Israeli-related stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to suffer due to investor apprehension.
While large tech companies seem to be weathering the storm, the broader <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/04/38099623/irans-revenge-promise-against-israel-is-taking-down-its-stock-market-but-large-tech-companies-appear">Israeli market is facing downward pressure </a>as the threat of Iranian retaliation looms over the region.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/04/38039504/solana-founder-announces-new-coin-as-april-fools-prank-and-a-mimic-token-surfaces-soaring-?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Solana Founder Announces New Coin As April Fools&#8217; Prank—And A Mimic Token Surfaces, Soaring 4000%</a>
Image via Shutterstock
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Analyst Warns Of 'Serious Escalatory Tit-For-Tat Cycle' If Iran Strikes Back, Raising Fears Of 'Wider War' In Middle East

Oil is trading higher amid supply uncertainty on Middle East tensions.

Commodities have been performing remarkably well this year, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely viewed measure of broad commodities prices, rising to its highest level since November. Most of the rally were driven by higher prices for oil, gold, and cocoa. 
While most commodity ETFs have been soaring, United States Oil Fund (ARCA:USO), United States Brent Oil Fund (ARCA:BNO), Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (ARCA:DBA), United States Gasoline ETF (ARCA:UGA) and GraniteShares Gold Trust (ARCA:BAR) have been the show stealers so far this year. 
Global oil prices have soared to the highest level in seven months, buoyed by the Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East that has threatened the oil supply. Brent oil rose above $89 per barrel for the first time since early September, while U.S. crude reached a five-month high of $85 per barrel. Brent and U.S. crude prices have risen 15% and 19%, respectively, since the start of the year. Gas prices have also started to climb up ahead of the summer driving season. 
Precious metals like gold and silver took flight in March. The yellow metal logged its biggest monthly rise in more than three years in March, rising 8.5% on renewed expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in June, strong safe-haven appeal and strong central bank buying. 
Meanwhile, silver prices climbed above the $25-an-ounce mark for the first time in 2024 on higher industrial and manufacturing demand. The global push for green energy, increasing demand in areas like 5G, a rebound in global computer shipments, the photovoltaics and automotive industries, and new sources of demand for sensors used in IoT and OLED lighting are propelling silver demand. 
Industrial metals, such as copper and nickel, are seeing upticks in prices, buoyed by supply concerns and robust demand, driven by increased production of electric vehicles. Notably, copper prices soared to an 11-month high in March following an agreement by China-based smelters to cut production. These smelters are responsible for processing half of the global copper supply. The copper market is tightening, with China smelter maintenance set to peak in April and May, which could hurt refined copper production, thereby hiking the price. 
Coming to agriculture commodities, cocoa prices nearly tripled in the first quarter to reach a level twice as high as the previous record set 50 years ago. The commodity skyrocketed to a new all-time high of more than $10,000 a ton from $3,000 a ton at the start of the year. A third consecutive year of supply shortages caused by poor harvests in West Africa led to the surge. 
We have profiled the ETFs below: 
United States Oil Fund (ARCA:USO) &ndash; Up 21.2% 
United States Oil Fund is the most popular ETF in the oil space, with an AUM of $1.4 billion and an average daily volume of 4 million shares. It seeks an average daily percentage change in USO&#39;s net asset value for any period of 30 successive valuation days within plus/minus 10% of the average daily percentage change in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract over the same period. United States Oil Fund has an expense ratio of 0.60%. 
United States Brent Oil Fund (ARCA:BNO) &ndash; Up 19.7% 
United States Brent Oil Fund is designed to track the daily price movements of Brent crude oil. It provides exposure to the near-month futures contract traded on the ICE Futures Exchange. If the near-month futures contract is within two weeks of expiration, the benchmark will be the next-month contract to expire. BNO invests primarily in listed crude oil futures contracts and other oil-related futures contracts, and may invest in forwards and swap contracts. United States Brent Oil Fund amassed $134.2 million in its asset base, and charges 1.00% as annual fees and expenses. Volume is good as it exchanges 600,000 shares a day on average. 
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (ARCA:DBA) &ndash; Up 19.4% 
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund tracks the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index Excess Return, a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. It has key holdings in cocoa, coffee and live cattle, with double-digit exposure each. Invesco DB Agriculture Fund charges 93 bps on an annual basis and trades in a volume of 406,000 shares a day. It has amassed $788.6 million in its asset base. 
United States Gasoline ETF (ARCA:UGA) &ndash; Up 18.9% 
United States Gasoline ETF is designed to track the movements of gasoline prices in percentage terms. The benchmark futures contract is the contract on gasoline as traded on the NYMEX. If the near-month contract is within two weeks of expiration, the benchmark will be the next-month contract to expire. United States Gasoline ETF is illiquid, with a daily trading volume of about 28,000, suggesting that investors have to pay extra beyond the annual fee of 0.97% per year. The fund has managed assets of $120.3 million. 
GraniteShares Gold Trust (ARCA:BAR) &ndash; Up 10.4% 
GraniteShares Gold Trust is designed to seek the performance of the price of gold. It provides an investment similar to an investment in gold through a Trust without having to open a metal account. It is among the lowest-cost gold ETFs on the market, having an expense ratio of 0.17%. GraniteShares Gold Trust has amassed $1 billion in its asset base while trading in an average daily volume of 663,000 shares.
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2249980/5-commodity-etfs-riding-high-in-2024?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-etf_news_and_commentary-2249980">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

Oil is trading higher following a draw in US crude oil inventories.

European investigators probing the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline sabotage say that the Polish officials have been slow to share information and have withheld key evidence related to the movements of alleged&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/02/30840477/nord-stream-blast-european-investigators-trying-to-cover-up-says-russia" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">saboteurs on Polish soil</a>.
Officials investigating the attack, which occurred in&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/09/29046190/watch-nord-stream-leaks-cause-1-kilometer-of-gas-bubbles-in-the-baltic-sea" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">September 2022</a>, suspect the involvement of a Ukrainian crew, potentially operating through Poland.&nbsp;
However, the lack of complete cooperation from Polish authorities has hindered efforts to ascertain whether the attack had any connection with the former Polish government.
With a new government in office since December, senior European officials are considering contacting&nbsp;Donald Tusk, Poland&#39;s new prime minister, hoping for improved collaboration.
While investigators haven&#39;t directly linked the Polish government to the explosions, their obstruction has fueled suspicions, the Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-probe-faces-resistance-from-poland-962aa5f9?mod=latest_headlines" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">noted</a>.&nbsp;
Most Western security officials believe a Ukrainian crew was involved, although both Ukraine and Russia have&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30937747/russia-slams-us-for-nord-stream-pipelines-destruction-demands-proof-of-non-involvement" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">denied any participation</a>.
Citing European officials, the WSJ reported that while prosecutors and the border guard in Poland cooperated during the investigation, representatives from the internal security agency ABW and other branches avoided answering questions, provided confusing information, or gave conflicting details regarding the case.
The investigation revealed that a leisure yacht named Andromeda, with a crew suspected of involvement, made stops in several countries, including Poland.&nbsp;
However, Polish authorities delayed sharing vital information until pressed by German counterparts, creating further skepticism.
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo via Wikimedia Commons

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