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Politicians Are Slow Learners, But Gov. Perry Has An Advantage

(via COMTEX News Network)--

- Socio-Political Commentary -

August 14, 2011 (FinancialWire) (By "The Political Prophet"(R)) -- Editor's note: Socio-political events and developments have a direct impact on the market. In the interest of providing shareholders and investors with a broad spectrum of information in regard to such potentially impactful occurrences, FinancialWire(tm) contributor, "The Political Prophet"(R), offers advanced insight with potential ramifications for virtually the entire market spectrum, perhaps best represented by bellwether-type ETFs such as the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLV), the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO), the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: OIL), the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (NYSE: IYR), the PowerShares Global Progressive Transportation Portfolio ETF (NASDAQ: PTRP), the Claymore U.S. Capital Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: UBD), the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLK), the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLI) and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP), to name just a few. To that end, here's a re-post of the recently circulated (August 12) column from FinancialWire contributor, "The Political Prophet"®:

Texas Governor Rick Perry had a front row seat to watch what happened to Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama when they strayed too far from the comfort zone of Middle America. Each of these Presidents was chastised by the people and Perry had a ringside seat to the process. As a student of history, Perry also saw fellow Texan, President Lyndon Johnson, his successor, Richard Nixon as well as Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter all be ushered out of office with less than two terms for similar fundamental reasons.

In addition, Perry and his team are measuring the political results of what Obama does and doesn't do against volumes of published and private polls. The current Washington Post Poll, for example, was taken August 9, 2011, the day before the U.S. stock market dropped another 500 plus points. The sample was small and measured only "Adults" (not the preferred "Registered Voters" or "Likely Voters" and the sample was more "Democratic" than the electorate. The study shows that more than twice as many respondents (44%) say they "definitely won't vote for Obama" compared to those (20%) who say they "definitely will vote for Obama".

We Predict: Perry will announce his plans to enter the race this weekend. The thrust of his campaign will focus on Obama and the opportunities we have as a Nation rather than on his Republican challengers for the nomination. Some exceptions will occur on a very limited basis when he is responding to questions from some reporters and debate moderators.

We Predict: Obama will have to respond to Perry's offense very differently than he planned to respond to each of the other potential nominees. Perry's experience "running things" is a far cry from what many people see as Obama's experience "talking about things".

We Predict: As noted above, Perry will focus on Obama from the outset and this President will be forced, by circumstance and by Perry, into a defensive posture unlike anything he has ever experienced. It is not Obama's nature to be "back on his heals" and his ego will make him hate being in that position. He also is already having a hard time listening to advice he doesn't like to hear so he may have difficulty reacting appropriately. Perry, in fact, could put enough pressure on Obama to cause dramatic errors in this President's re-election efforts. The risk for Perry is that Obama is still liked personally (not approved) by many Americans and the Texas Governor must take care not to go too far.

We Predict: Some of Perry's advisors, aware of the risk noted in the preceding sentence, will argue that his best strategy will be to "come out of the starting blocks" with a positive, uplifting campaign that largely ignores everything except the needs of the Nation and especially of independent voters to find something and someone to believe in again. The beauty of that strategy is that Perry can counterpunch from under the mantle of a generally positive campaign while decrying the negative focus of his opponent(s). We expect the Perry campaign to test (focus group and actual campaign appearances) several messages during the early weeks of the campaign. He has the team and the skills to excite a crowd with a variety of message variations.

We Predict: Perry, Karl Rove and most of the Bush folks will make peace. The antagonisms of the past get very small in the eyes of pragmatic patriots who need to co-operate for the good of their country. Former President, George W. Bush could play a decisive role in the reconciliation process. A good mediator would also be helpful. Many of the more experienced conservative leaders of today got their political start during the Goldwater years and well remember the futility of divisiveness in the ranks when there is important work to be done.


Resource note: Predictions prepared August 8, 2011; Of special Interest to political leaders, candidates, staff, donors, campaign professionals, journalists and investors; Original August 12 article posted by Investrend Syndications (at



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