Errors By Novice Technicians

It's taken me years to figure out how to navigate the markets with a chart and technicals.  When I first started reading up on charting techniques there were very few options available and very little published about the topic.  But eventually I learned the skills necessary and to this day continue to gather knowledge, there is just so much to learn.

 

When I was in college, my last class at San Diego State was 'Portfolio Management', where the instructor was to cover all things about the stock market.  He chose to cover technical analysis in a whopping TWO sessions, and said it was an irrelevant science, nobody is using it and eventually it'll fade out. How wrong was that?

 

But I will tell you that without some formal training and experience you might starting using these techniques the wrong way, or just dismiss the patterns altogether.  I've seen this mistake made over and over again, due to a bias for holding a stock or position.  Bias brings in the emotions and feelings, something a pure technician should not need to use in their analysis.

 

Where do I see errors in technical analysis?  Aside from the bias, we see chart interpretations before a pattern is made, and then the assumption is to jump the gun because 'that is really going to happen'.  You never know that.  For example, a tried/true bullish morningstar starts to form, but it's a 3 bar pattern.  

 

One might get excited through the second day (a doji) and enter a position prematurely.  That is a major error, because a morningstar leads to higher prices, but if it doesn't complete the pattern it is a new breakdown point.  If you jumped the gun, you risk loss.

 

Dismissing the patterns is something I see quite often.  NVIDIA NVDA may have fallen 20%, and regardless of where the support or important price levels, it's time to jump in.  If you're using charts/technicals for your decision process, then USE them, don't ignore them. 

 

There is a lot to be said about being patient, technical patterns are time-tested and are often very accurate in predicting the next move.  But if you jump the gun and add a position too soon or simply decide for yourself and entry point is right you risk loss.