Follow Fed Funds Futures?
Industry economists remain split over the likely outcome of these latest Fed deliberations. Another example of the shifting tide shows up in Fed funds futures trading. This market gives us a rough idea of how traders are positioning to play the Fed decision. As of this morning, Fed funds futures priced in a 25% chance for a rate hike Thursday. That compares to 40% likelihood for a September hike priced in a month ago. It's important to remember that the Fed debate and all the noise it can bring to the market won't likely fade with Thursday's decision. There's an October Fed meeting just around the corner. And one in December, too. As soon as the Fed pulls the trigger, the debate switches: One and done? Or first of many? Fed funds futures are priced for a 60% rate hike in December. Check out the rest of the picture here.Ho-Hum Retail Sales
Retail sales is a key component to the economic portfolio under scrutiny at the Fed. In a Tuesday morning report, data showed that sales at U.S. retailers rose a modest 0.2% in August, about in line with Street expectations. Consumers spent less on gasoline (prices fell), but more on new cars and trucks. Sales were up 0.4% when gasoline was excluded. Over the past 12 months retail sales have risen a rather pale 2.2%. The spending on big-ticket autos is encouraging to most, however.Oracle Earnings
Fed hub-bub makes it hard to drill down on company news, but this week does feature a tech-sector earnings snapshot. Oracle ORCL, whose stock is down 15% over the past three months, is due up with its fiscal Q1 results after market close on Wednesday. The tough transition to cloud computing remains a key headline. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.52, down from $0.62 in the year-earlier period. Oracle has missed consensus earnings per share expectations in five of the past six quarters, according to FactSet. Revenue remains a key metric across earnings reports. Forecasts are for $8.53 billion in Oracle's quarterly revenue, off the $8.6 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier. Good trading, JJ @TDAJJKinahan This piece was originally posted here by JJ Kinahan on September 15, 2015.Market volatility, volume, and system availability may delay account access and trade executions.
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