Time is Right For This Little Known Currency ETF

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The Australian dollar is the second-worst performing developed market currency in the world this year behind the Japanese yen. Of course that has meant bad news for the
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar TrustFXA
, which has plunged 13 percent year-to-date. Although Australia is backed by
an AAA credit rating
and still some of the highest borrowing costs in the developing (2.75 percent benchmark interest rate), the Aussie has drawn plenty of detractors this year.
Related:S&P Bullish on 2 Fundamentally-Weighted ETFs
Financier George Soros shorted the currency. Hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller previously made bearish comments about the Aussie and scores of banks of have pared their forecasts for the AUD/USD currency pair. In late June, National Australia Bank lowered its AUD/USD forecast for year-end 2013 to 88 cents from 93 cents while slashing its 2014 forecast to 83 cents from 87 cents,
according to The Australian
. Before that, Westpac and Golman Sachs, among others, took the knife to their AUD/USD estimates. That is good news of the unheralded
ProShares UltraShort Australian DollarCROC
. CROC does not need much more good news as the double-leveraged bearish play is already up 24.3 percent this year, but that is exactly what the fund has gotten thanks to
BlackRockBLK
. The world's largest asset manager said the Australian dollar may fall to 80 cents against the greenback in the next nine months. "We prefer to be sellers of the Aussie dollar still," said BlackRock Managing Director Stephen Miller
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in an interview with Bloomberg
. Assuming BlackRock's forecast proves accurate, that would imply downside of over 12 percent for AUD/USD, which currently trades around 91.3 cents. Clearly, that would benefit CROC, which has done an admirable job of tracking the Aussie's performance this year. In the spot market, the Aussie was down 11 percent year-to-date heading into the start of Wednesday's U.S. session. At the start of trading Wednesday, CROC had a 21.6 percent year-to-date gain, almost exactly double the inverse performance of the currency itself. CROC has jumped almost six percent
since it was highlighted last month
as one inverse ETF investors should get acquainted with.
Related:Three Financial ETFs to Own Today
Not only have traders recently increased their bearish bets on the Aussie, but there are other factors that could spark further downside for the already embattled currency. The Reserve Bank of Australia may eschew another rate cut in August, but if the Chinese and Australian economies continue to slow, RBA may not be able to go the rest of this year without further cutting rates. Last night's flash reading of China's July PMI show's the world's second-largest economy is slowing. That is not good news for Australia because China is the largest export market for Australian firms. In other words, CROC will not be a crock if current economic conditions in the Asia-Pacific region persist. For more on ETFs, click
here
.
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Posted In: Analyst ColorLong IdeasNewsShort IdeasPrice TargetCurrency ETFsForexEventsGlobalIntraday UpdateMarketsTrading IdeasETFsGeorge SorosStanley DruckenmillerStephen Miller
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