Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan reflected on the origins and his personal journey in setting up the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform on Tuesday.
Polymarket’s Humble Origins
In an X post about a $2 billion investment into Polymarket from New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (NYSE:ICE), Coplan recalled his challenging situation during the early COVID-19 period in 2020.
“At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it,” he said.
Coplan also shared a photo of himself from the time, working on Polymarket from his “makeshift bathroom office.”
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‘Odds Were Against Us’
He remembers reading economist Robin Hanson’s studies on prediction markets and thought it was “too good” an idea to be limited to white papers.
“There were a million reasons why it shouldn't work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try,” Coplan added.
He called the Polymarket origin story a “rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out.”
Coplan said his conviction stemmed from a shift toward valuing truth, arguing that Polymarket plays a critical role in this.
Polymarket’s Journey
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL, lets users wager on political, geopolitical, and financial events using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. Before Intercontinental, the firm reportedly attracted a multi-million-dollar investment from Donald Trump Jr.‘s venture capital fund, 1789 Capital.
The platform rose to prominence during last year's election season, with over $3 billion wagered on the outcome of the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The platform accurately predicted Trump's victory, but concerns about foreign influence and market manipulation dominated headlines.
The FBI raided Coplan's home in November 2024 as part of a Justice Department investigation into allegations that Polymarket allowed U.S.-based users to place bets in violation of regulatory agreements. However, all probes were closed after Trump assumed power.
Note that U.S. residents are currently barred from using Polymarket, but the platform is expected to start operations in the near future.
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