Will Higher Trading Volume Aid Coinbase in Q1 Earnings?

Coinbase Global COIN is set to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on May 2, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise in each of the last four reported quarters.
Let's discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.
Trading volumes in the first quarter are likely to have benefited from increased crypto asset volatility and crypto asset prices, the primary driver of the trading business. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETF is likely to have aided trading volumes.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total trading volume is pegged at 268 million, indicating an improvement of 84.8% from the year-ago reported number. The consensus estimate for total volume - Consumer is pegged at 17.1 million, suggesting a 119.6% increase from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark for total volume - Institution is pegged at 222 million, up 79% from the year-ago reported number.
Higher blended average fees for Consumer and Institutional combined with higher trading volumes are likely to have driven an increase in transaction revenues.
While a prudent mix of simple and advanced trading volume is likely to have aided blended average fee for Consumers, growth in Coinbase Prime volume is expected to have led to a higher blended average fee rate at Institutional. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenues is pegged at $714 million, indicating an increase of 90.4% from the year-ago reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenue - Consumer is pegged at $343 million, up 104% from the year-ago reported number. The consensus estimate for transaction revenue - Institutional is pegged at $56 million, up 151% from the year-ago reported number

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Coinbase this time around. This is because it has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Coinbase's Earnings ESP is +36.53%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Coinbase Global, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Coinbase Global, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Coinbase Global, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Coinbase currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three securities and exchange stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Intercontinental Exchange ICE has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.49, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.7%.
ICE's earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Cboe Global Markets CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.04, indicating an increase of 7.4% from the year-ago reported figure.
CBOE earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
MarketAxess MKTX has an Earnings ESP of +0.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings stands at $1.85, indicating a decrease of 5.6% from the year-ago reported figure.
MKTX earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in one.
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