AUD/USD Forecast: Neutral-To-Bullish In The Short-Term, Picture May Change Below 0.6370

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6415

• Better than expected Australian data failed to trigger buying.
• The Australian trade surplus is seen at 6800 million in March.
• AUD/USD neutral-to-bullish in the short-term, picture may change below 0.6370.

The AUD/USD pair is unchanged for a third consecutive week, as despite some intraday volatility it has closed around the current level ever since the week started. Bulls were nowhere to be found, despite Australian data came in better than anticipated. According to the official release, Retail Sales in the country were up by 8.5% MoM in March, beating the market’s forecast of 8.2%.  The sour tone of equities and falling commodities’ prices capped the upside for the Aussie.

The upcoming Asian session will bring Australian trade figures for March, with the trade balance foreseen posting a surplus of 6800M. China will also publish its trade data but for April. In dollar terms, the trade balance is seen posting a surplus of $6.35B.

AUD/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair holds above 0.6400, maintaining a neutral-to-bullish stance in the short-term. The 4-hour chart shows that it hovers around its 20 SMA while above the larger ones, as technical indicators hover directionless around their mid-lines. The potential of a downward move is limited as long as the pair remains above 0.6370 a strong static support level.

Support levels: 0.6405 0.6370 0.6330

Resistance levels: 0.6445 0.6480 0.6515 

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