International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath has highlighted three uncomfortable truths that monetary policy will have to confront for contending with high inflation.
In her remarks before the European Central Bank Forum, Gopinath pointed out the first uncomfortable truth is that inflation is taking too long to get back to target. This means that central banks, including the ECB, must remain committed to fighting inflation despite risks of weaker economic growth, she said.
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"While central banks must be vigilant about not easing prematurely, they should be prepared to adjust course if a chorus of indicators suggest that these downside inflation risks are materializing," she said.
Upside Risks: The third uncomfortable truth, she said, is that central banks may experience more upside inflation risks than before the pandemic. ‘Some of the upside risk reflects structural changes affecting aggregate supply—heightened by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine—and that may result in larger and more persistent shocks,' she said.
The economist observed that there cannot be sustained economic growth without a return to price stability. ‘The good news is that while low inflation may seem elusive, it is certainly no stranger, and central bank actions can deliver it. Unlike the characters in Godot, we are not waiting for a potential stranger to arrive; we are inviting an old friend to return,' she said.
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